Referendums: thank you all, everyone is free

Yesterday, residents of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions thought that they were going to rare polling stations (which were not so easy to find) to choose their future. Many of them sincerely believe that a serious step has been taken in the direction of independence from Kyiv, and at best, even in the direction of joining Russia. And many of the referendum participants are also convinced that Vladimir Putin is ready not only politically, but also military terms to support the choice made. But they are mistaken. They contributed to the burden of Russia's position in a bargain for the fate of all Ukraine, risking to become a bargaining coin in the decision of the future of the Ukrainian state. And from today, their life will not change at all, if it does not get worse.

Politics is cynical, and geopolitics is doubly, and the forever relevant Machiavellian principle “the end justifies the means” today by the way. In the struggle for Ukraine, playing step by step, Vladimir Putin prefers not to give up, but to raise bets, putting all new fates of people and peoples on the map.

The deepest problem of Putin today is that his wonderful plan for the salvation of Ukraine at the hands of Western integrators in November last year cracked, and in February, against the background of the revolution, completely failed. And whatever those who fear Russian imperial ambitions and the next hegemonist project to seize the post -Soviet space say, Putin did not have a new plan for Ukraine, and tactics remains step by step and so far each time losing.
At first we demanded a return to agreements of February 21 and even with a certain frequency showed on TV a living Viktor Yanukovych, scaring the most sensitive return, probably under the muzzles of Russian machine guns (otherwise he would hardly have gone). Then we convinced that Crimea would not be annexed to Russia, and from Kyiv they simply demanded to refuse to hold the presidential elections in May and begin constitutional reform. However, contrary to our original plans, Crimea moored to Russia, and it was no longer possible to choose it. Having made this political decision just a few days after the promise of Crimea not to touch, the Kremlin instantly conducted a campaign for the separation of the peninsula, providing it for this with all the necessary “polite” tools. The ruling historically fair happiness turned out to be completely unfair, from the point of view of the Putin oligarchs, sanctions, which were also accompanied by offensive comments such as "Putin lost in touch with reality."

But further worse. The Foreign Ministry tried to rejoice that the West no longer snorts the word “federalization”, and called it his diplomatic victory. However, we soon stated that in the “term federalization” we would not “rest” (Lavrov spoke about this after the next consultations with John Kerry). Then we signed the Geneva Agreements and refused to fulfill them (although most likely it was not even planned), supporting the separatists in all possible ways (except that the army has not yet been entered) and at the same time surprised that the agreements do not work. Finally, the last outstanding somersault is the call (or, according to Dmitry Peskov’s specified expression, recommendation) to supporters of federalization to transfer referendums and recognition of the presidential elections “by movement in the right direction”.
While the ruble is crepe, and the most nervous breaths, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk Public Council of Putin were sent with its appeal. Some thought that this was a cunning plan: to conduct a referendum, but with a minimal “involvement” of Russia. Others decided that the separatists got out of control. But the truth is much easier: Putin sent a signal that the independence of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions Moscow will not yet recognize (that the Kremlin confirmed ) and the fate of these regions has been exclusive dependent on the success from the point of view of Russia's implementation of the OSCE Roadmap (which is carefully hidden from us). And the question of whether there will be referendums on May 11 or not, did not have any significance for Putin at the time of his unexpected concessions of May 7. Russia has only a clear understanding that we will not give Ukraine NATO and that no one seriously perceives Ukraine from the West (Ukraine as a subject of negotiations), we need guarantees of the neutral status of this “territory”. Russia has two critically important levers - pro -Russian sentiments in the east and gas supply. Russia has nothing else. And until Moscow feels that there is a real opportunity to achieve the desired, these two levers will be involved as much as possible. And referendums are only one of the forms of weighting the Russian position, in the defending of which the voted inhabitants are simply pawns, bred on the field of geopolitical battles. Is it worth it to doubt that with the hypothetical adoption of the Constitution of Ukraine, which provides for a federal structure and neutral status, Moscow will give these pawns as consumables? Well, it will not work, then enjoy their life with an eternal military threat from the “junta” and no recognized status of “people's republics” by anyone. Putin said that it was necessary to transfer the referendum.