Ukrainian solitaire

Presidential elections were held in Ukraine

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“Wait, I take a picture with the future president,” a friend acquired Petro Poroshenko and quickly made a frame with an outstretched hand. The current favorite of the presidential race, and then - in December last year on the Maidan - “just” billionaire and politician Petro Poroshenko reluctantly smiled at the lens. Among the tents, frost and mortally tired people, the phrase about the future president seemed not to be the most successful joke. It was almost impossible to believe in the imminent elections and a sharp take -off of the businessman’s ambitions - President Viktor Yanukovych still held on to power, and the Maidan only gained strength.

Presidential alignment

Meanwhile, the joke turned out to be prophetic, and a week before the presidential election, Poroshenko was their unconditional favorite. Based on the results of a survey conducted by the GFK Ukraine sociological service on May 6–8, to vote for Poroshenko - a person whose fortune was estimated at $ 1.3 billion, 40.5% of Ukrainians are ready. At the same time, Yulia Tymoshenko sensationally lost the second place to the comrade -in -arms of the fugitive Yanukovych - People’s Deputy and also billionaire Sergey Tigipko, who is going to support 9.0%. Tymoshenko in GFK is only a third place from 8.8% of the vote. However, according to the sociological service of the Razumkov Center, interviewing Ukrainians from April 25 to 29, Tymoshenko holds the second place (10%), but the separation from the leader still looks hopeless - he gains 33.3% of the vote. Only 4.9%are ready to vote for Sergei Tigipko, according to the calculations of the “Razumkovites”.

All this is not new personalities in Ukrainian politics. “If we talk about people from the Maidan, then expect that one of them will immediately become the leader of the race, it would be naive. There is (among presidential candidates. - The New Times) The head of the “Right Sector” Dmitry Yarosh, there is Olga Bogomolets (the heir to a prominent medical dynasty who organized the Maidan’s medical service. - The New Times). But the paradox of the situation is that for many Poroshenko looks like a new face, ”says Vladimir Fesenko, head of the center of applied political research of Penta. “The growth of the rating of Petro Poroshenko began in late autumn and became noticeable during the Maidan. To a large extent, it is explained by the fact that Ukrainians have been in the search for new leaders - although Poroshenko in the top of Ukrainian politicians since the beginning of the two thousandth, for a long time he was in the shade and is now perceived as a new person, ”Mikhail Mishchenko, deputy director of the sociological service of the Razumkov Center, agrees with him.

In addition, the sociologist draws attention to the fact that of the politicians who were considered the leaders of the opposition to the Maidan - Yatsenyuk, Klitschko, Tyagnibok - only the last goes to the elections: “Perhaps, the fact that they signed a memorable memorandum with Yanukovych signed their image very much.* Poroshenko did not sign anything like that”.

However, not only the supporters of the Maidan were ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko. According to the calculations of the Razumkov Center, in the raging southeast of Ukraine, he can also count on serious support. If, on the traditionally voting for democratic politicians of Western and Central Ukraine, Poroshenko promises to cast votes 51% and 45% of voters, then in the east - 15.2%, in the south - 20%. This is more than that of any other candidate. For example, Sergey Tigipko ranks second in the east with 9.1%.

Why Poroshenko

This is largely due to the long-term conviction of Ukrainians that a person who has managed to build his own business imperia will be able to restore order in the state. Starting with consulting and importing cocoa bobs, Poroshenko put together a powerful financial and industrial group of more than fifty companies, among which large even by world standards, the Roshen confectionery corporation (a company with factories in Ukraine, Hungary and Southeast Asia is included in the first twenty world ranking TOP 100 and produces about 320 various products with a total volume of 450 thousand tons per year. A separate place of honor is occupied by the Fifth Channel, in the days of the “Orange Revolution” and the Maidan, which became the main mouthpiece of the opposition. At the same time, the labor biography of Poroshenko looks almost a model history of success.

He was born in a small town of Bolgrad of the Odessa region, and at nine years old with his family moved to Moldovan Bender - so the critics have every reason to brand him “Bender”. He entered the prestigious faculty of international relations at the University of Kiev, served in the army, created one of the first consulting offices in the Ukrainian SSR, became a millionaire, first ruble and then dollar. Four children from a woman with whom he has been married for almost 30 years. He is fond of tennis, loves Claude Monet.

At the same time, Petro Poroshenko combined the successes in making money with the public service. The 48-year-old Poroshenko has an already impressive list of posts behind him. In parliament, he appeared back in 1998, becoming one of the founders of the regional revival party, which later turned into the Party of Viktor Yanukovych’s regions, which many supporters of the Maidan still cannot forgive him. In 2003, then President Leonid Kuchma offered him the post of First Deputy Prime Minister, but by that time Poroshenko was already in the opposite camp of his Kum Viktor Yushchenko. After the “Orange Revolution”, Poroshenko, according to the plan of the new head of state, was to play the role of a counterweight to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, but the scheme did not work - after mutual flows of dirt, both were dismissed. Further in the work book of the current presidential candidate, the following entry: head of the Council of the National Bank, Minister of Foreign Affairs in the second office of Tymoshenko, as well as the Minister of Economic Development and Trade in the Government of Nikolai Azarov.

	““ Poroshenko has a reputation of a person who knows how to negotiate ””

“Poroshenko has a reputation for a person who knows how to negotiate. He had a difficult period when he left power, but then reconciled with Tymoshenko, returned, managed to agree that he would lead the Foreign Ministry, with all sides - with Tymoshenko, and with Yushchenko, and with parliament where there was no real majority. And this is already a talent to find a compromise not only with specific figures, but also with a motley deputy corps, ”says political strategist Fesenko.

“It is interesting that, despite the rather rigid rhetoric regarding the settlement of the crisis in the Donbass, the level of Poroshenko’s support in the east is only a third less than in the west of the country, and in the south is almost equal to support in the west and in the center. Thus, Poroshenko managed to become a politician who is supported throughout the country, ”says GLEB Pryshilinsky, deputy director of GFK Ukraine. According to him, most of all Petro Poroshenko are supported by medium -sized men and people of the older age group in large cities.

Apparently, Poroshenko managed to agree this time. In any case, he clearly played into the hands of the fact that the party leader Vitaly Klitschko, who was considered the main favorite of the presidential election, withdrew his candidacy for the last year. This was preceded by a meeting of politicians in Vienna with a scandalous and wanted by Ukrainian entrepreneur Dmitry Firtash, involved in gas schemes between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the former head of the presidential administration, Yanukovych Sergey Levochkin. At first, Poroshenko denied the meeting, while Firtash - the long -standing opponent of Tymoshenko - did not unlock and even publicly supported his candidacy in the elections: “He is not a friend and comrade, but my choice is this - what Tymoshenko is, we all well know what Poroshenko is - we can still see.” Later, the favorite of the presidential race nevertheless admitted the fact of the meeting: "But I did not like its results to Dmitry (Firtash)." But probably they liked Poroshenko himself: according to the results of the meeting of the ex-boxer, it was possible to convince that he did not have enough rating or money on the victorious presidential campaign under the current conditions. Klitschko decided to limit himself to the elections of the mayor of Kyiv, where he was a clear favorite, and Poroshenko received a direct road to the presidency.

The chances of Tymoshenko

Thus, the current leader of the presidential race managed to peacefully replay the most dangerous competitor at the moment. At the moment-because if you think globally, it is more dangerous than the opponent than 53-year-old Julia Tymoshenko, of course, in Ukraine. As, however, she does not have special prospects in the current elections. Tymoshenko’s problem is an extremely high anti -rating, while during the campaign it does not decrease, but only increases. If in January, according to GFK Ukraine, she was not trusted with 59% of respondents, then in April - already 66%. In Poroshenko, the share of those decreased from 50 to 41%. According to Gleb Pryshilinsky, Tymoshenko, a candidate is not so much the West, the North and the Center, where more than 80% of its supporters live, how many and small cities live: “Tymoshenko’s support in villages is more than twice as high as in cities with a population of over 500 thousand people. At the same time, young people up to 35 years old supported her. ” However, Tymoshenko does not leave special ten percent rating. “Most voters believe that Tymoshenko and her political style do not correspond to the present time. She remained in the middle of the two thousandth. In ideological terms, they have no special differences with Poroshenko, but their electorate has a need for a more dynamic and active policy. Tymoshenko says well, although Poroshenko is a good speaker. But many believe that she says more than she does, ”says sociologist Mishchenko.

“However, the lack of chances of victory Tymoshenko herself is likely to be fully aware and goes to the polls to lose the battle, but to win the war”

The main target of criticism of Yulia Tymoshenko is naturally Poroshenko, whom she calls a “compromise figure for oligarchy”, and also states: “Russia unlocked Poroshenko all business. No one except Poroshenko can work in Russia now. ” The point that on March 14, all Roshen accounts were arrested in Russian banks, and production at his Lipetsk factories was stopped. But a month later, the work of enterprises was restored **, and Poroshenko himself said: "I will not comment on a single thesis of Tymoshenko, even if this is true." After that, Tymoshenko decided not to trifle and threatened: “If the country chooses another president, and today I have only one competitor, then I think we will have to go to the third round of the revolution.”

Stylistic differences

However, the lack of chances of victory Tymoshenko herself is likely to be fully aware and goes to the polls to lose the battle, but to win the war. With the help of the presidential campaign, she noisily returns to big politics and hopes for the triumph at the inevitable re -election of the parliament: the thesis about the need to hold them this year has several candidates at once, including Poroshenko and Tigipko.

By the way, the pre -election programs for many key candidates this time are largely similar. “Ukrainian politics is not at all ideological. The differences between politicians are rather stylistic than ideological, ”explains sociologist Mikhail Mishchenko. So, all applicants speak of the need to decentralize power. “The local communities will receive more rights and money to realize their powers,” Poroshenko promises. “To expand the powers and financial independence of the regions,” Tymoshenko echoes him. Another common item for all applicants without exception is to increase the country's defense capacity by increasing the funding of the army. As for international politics, Poroshenko diplomatically advocates “de -escalation of conflict and economic cooperation” with Russia, as well as joining the European Union. Tymoshenko also promises to Ukrainians of the EU and even the return of Crimea: “This is the task of the new president - to make the trap of economic sanctions slam shut and Putin's regime is overthrown. Then Crimea will return to Ukraine. I understand what buttons you need to press for the world to remember the annexation of Crimea and the pressure of the sanctions intensifies. ” Meanwhile, Poroshenko has already publicly expressed his requirements for the Russian Federation: “To withdraw saboteurs coordinating the actions of extremists and separatists in eastern Ukraine”, to withdraw Russian troops from borders and cancel the permission of the Federation Council for the application of the military forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. In addition, on May 13, he warned that Ukraine is preparing in international courts, “from the UN International Court to the International Tribunal in The Hague”, 17 claims against Russia, including relatively annexation of Crimea and Viktor Yanukovych’s crimes.

Party of Eastern Regions

The opposition to the new government includes former comrades-in-arms of the fugitive president: entrepreneur Sergey Tigipko and ex-governor of the Kharkov region Mikhail Dobkin. The latter is running for a single candidate from the Party of Regions, and Tigipko in early April came out of it with a scandal - precisely because he was not a single candidate. “Of course, Tigipko had to become a single candidate. But for Rinat Akhmetov (the richest man of Ukraine-the fortune, according to Bloomberg, $ 22.3 billion, the owner of the financial and industrial group SKM.-The New Times and other Donetsk founding fathers, he was too independent and claimed to be leadership in the party. They could not allow this, ”explains Vladimir Fesenko.

	“For the richest man of Ukraine Rinat Akhmetov and other Donetsk founding fathers, he is too independent”

The biography of the 54-year-old Tigipko, who was born in Moldova and after a school of 54-year-old Tigipko, is largely similar to the history of Petro Poroshenko: a successful businessman-billionaire-Forbes estimated his fortune at $ 1.11 billion, who built his own financial and industrial group of TAS with interests in the banking and insurance sector, real estate, machine building and engineering and engineering and engineering and engineering and engineering and engineering and engineering. Venture investments. The statesman-behind him, work as deputy prime minister, Minister of Social Policy and the head of the National Bank. He also has the experience of the presidential campaign: in 2010, Tigipko took third place after Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko with a result of 13.06% and became the deputy prime minister on economic issues. On his account, in particular, a lot of criticized pension reform, during which the age of retirement for women increased by five years, and the necessary insurance experience increased for everyone.

44-year-old Mikhail Dobkin, until March 2, former the governor of the Kharkov region, became famous when the video got on the Internet about how he recorded an appeal to citizens with a request to support him in the elections. Replicas like “somehow here is written here, everything is written” instantly became a meme, and Dobkin himself began to be considered the leader of the nearby and weak. However, this did not prevent the congress of the Party of Regions on March 29 to vote for the nomination of Dobkin to the president. The investigator, which was under investigation and even sitting in an insulator on charges of encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Dobkin promised to make the Russian language to the second state (for this are both Tigipko and the leader of the Communists of Simonenko), restore relations with Russia and engage in federalization. However, according to the results of the “imprisonment”, he refused the last slogan, which seriously spoiled his ratings in the southeast. According to the latest quarters, 1.9% are ready to vote for it in the south, and about 9% of voters are ready in the east, while in the west and south they do not believe in Dobkin at all. The candidate explained the change of rhetoric by the fact that federalization would be appropriate in “calm and comfortable conditions”, and not in the raging Ukraine that lost Crimea. Now Mikhail Dobkin advocates a system following the example of Italy with the broad rights of regions, but as part of a single country with a unitary form of government.

““ Dobkin also cannot be called one hundred percent, but it is controlled. He has a resource of influence in Kharkov, and Donbass can vote for the support of the Party of Regions for it ”” ”

“Unlike Sergei Tigipko, Dobkin has no ambitions in the Party of Regions. He also cannot be called one hundred percent of his own, but he is controlled. He has a resource of influence in Kharkov, and by supporting the Party of Regions and Personally, Rinat Akhmetov, Donbass can vote for him. In general, Dobkin was chosen on the principle of “from what was,” says political strategist Fesenko. The sociologist Pryshrinsky also agrees with him: “Mikhail Dobkin is a regional candidate whose most voters are concentrated not just in the East, but specifically in the Kharkov region. At the same time, his support among women is three times more than among men, and the rating among young people is very low. ”

Outsiders

The remaining 17 candidates to gain more than a few percent almost certainly could not be affordable. The older generation is represented by the head of the Communist Party, 61-year-old Peter Simonenko. The leader of the “Right Sector” Dmitry Yarosh remained rather a scarecrow for the southeast and the head of mythical militants, “Bandera” than a real political figure. And the leader of “Freedom”, playing with him on one field of nationalism, Oleg Tyagnibok, seems to have finally lost his sympathy of his electorate. “He was perceived as an enemy of Yanukovych’s politics in rapprochement with Russia. Now his ratings have returned to the level at which they were at Yushchenko - about 1%, ”says sociologist Mikhail Mishchenko.

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The leader of the “Right Sector” Dmitry Yarosh remained rather a scarecrow and the head of the mythical militant “Bandera” than a real political figure. And the rating of the leader of the nationalist "Freedom" Oleg Tyagnibok is about 1%

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In general, for the country, these elections promise to become unique: for the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, intrigues do not expect and will not be. Well, besides, although the fate of Ukraine now largely depends on the president, this president is a completely different country.

Photo: Valentyn Oglrenko/Reuters, Baz Ratner/Reuters, Maxim Nikitin/ITAR-TASS, Yuriy Kirnichny/AFP/East News