If not Putin, then who?

The 14-year agreement between the Kremlin and the elites was destroyed at once

Demonstration on Red Square in Moscow. May 1, 2014 /Photo: Sergey Karpukhin /Reuters

Many will say that today the formulation of the question itself looks at least premature. That 85 % of the trust rating of Putin (according to VTsIOM) and the obvious absence of the current President of the Russian Federation to leave in a good way, quietly and peacefully-especially after the annexation of Crimea and further attempts to destabilize Ukraine-they remove the topic “if not Putin” from the current agenda. Well, fatal questions must be posed while they seem untimely. When they become timely, it is already too late. The situation gets out of reasonable control of organized human forces.

Elite pact

The situation in Russia over the past three months, since the overthrow and flight of Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, has changed qualitatively. And it is not at all the fact that in favor of Putin.

Since the formal coming to power in 2000, Putin has been a guarantor of the interests of Russian elites. And that part that was formed under Boris Yeltsin, and new ones admitted to the table, who came with the new president from the depths of his personally-service biography.

On the one hand, Putin was a buffer between the elites and the Russian people who hated the elite (and continue to hate). The people were offered an ideological chewing gum, often in the pseudo -Soviet style, about the “equidistance of the oligarchs”, “the rise of Russia from the knees”, etc. The elites, in the interests of which the regime functioned, were released from the consumption of chewing gum. The stability of this regime was provided by the name and image of Putin, “Slave on Galers” (C).

On the other hand, GDP was called upon to create all the conditions for the legalization of elites on an international scale. First of all, in the Euro -Atlantic world with which the personal strategies of most rich and influential people of the country are associated.

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GDP was called upon to create conditions for the legalization of elites primarily in the Euro -Atlantic world, with which the personal strategies of most rich and influential people of the country are associated

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The burden of these duties until the spring of 2014 Putin was quite conscientiously. Of course, there were excesses like Gusinsky - Berezovsky - Khodorkovsky, but they ultimately did not contradict the logic of internal being. After all, the Putin Pact involved a fee for gallery liability, from which the elites were both in theory and in practice, fundamental political loyalty were exempted. Assuming that: a) no one attaches directly to the presidential post and the powers of the head of state; b) powerful nationwide media are not used to fight against the Kremlin; c) No one who considers himself a logical member of the team has the right to endure the IC from the hut and openly compromise his president, no matter what subjective grievances and roughness accumulated.

In this sense, the elites could always justify - and justified - and the seizure of the media assets of Gusinsky (and you did not have to get involved in battle with the state, from which you received everything!), And the disgrace of Berezovsky (you attributed too much merits to yourself, too much loved to retreat from the rules), and Khodorkovsky’s drama (and who asked him to climb into power - not to be inside the system and not depend on the system).

But the “Russian spring” (about the irony of the story that stuck in this brand, we must recall more than once) never, from the standpoint of most of the Russian Federation, cannot be justified.

And the break in the pact

Having substituted his neighbors under international sanctions, Putin ceased to be a guarantor of the interests of people who led him to power and for more than 14 years formed her foot. He sacrificed their vital interests to the spring exacerbation: fear of a fatal defeat in Ukraine and thirst for revenge to the West, who had been deceiving our hero for so many years. I am sure that none or almost none of our elitarians is ready to abandon the notorious program of international legalization, which includes education for children/grandchildren and health care for the whole family (in Putin’s Russia, these industries are firmly and not even slowly). Changing business strategy or political plans is difficult, but in principle it is possible, it's okay. It is much more painful to face in adulthood with the need to change a personal life strategy, full of a quarter of a century.

The authors of the anonymous apocrypha argue that one businessman very close to the president (let's call him conditionally Gennady) personally asked not to rush with the annexation of Crimea, since “we will all suffer greatly from this” (the formulation is underway, but in terms of meaning). The answer was: “Yes-yes-yes”, with all the rapidly following those disconnecting and connection events. And one of the main federal officials (conditionally - Dmitry) wanted to just find out what the strategy of a strange war on the Ukrainian front consists. To which I heard something like: do not twitch, the time will come, something and I will tell.

Today, for the first time in fourteen and a half years, GDP looks like a traitor to the ruling corporation with the authorized corporation. And in order to afford such a betrayal, you need to at least destroy the support class and create a new elite. In type of oprichnina. Many people dream about this in Russia, especially “children of defeat” - people of my and two related generations who have not forgiven modern elites and international imperialism (led by the USA, of course) the collapse of our great empire. Talks about this-however, are quite harmless and barren-have been going on since January 2000. And for the first time, something similar begins to materialize. The ensign of Strelkov-Girkin risks being a greater Putin than some Roman Abramovich.

So they did not agree. And for some, this means “it's time to blame”, and for others it means the question brought up in the title of this article: “If not Putin, then who?”

GKChP-2

After the annexation of Crimea, one often heard that Putin was originally inherent in a certain strategy for the revival of the empire, only for 14 years he did not do this, and in the fifteenth year of reign-finally broke through.

In my opinion, there was no imperial strategy either.

Putin is a guardian. Ustevs, traditions, territories, heritage. The worst word for such a person is “revolution”. And Putin, most likely, perceives his current offensive as defense. In his own understanding, he does not try to bring down the world order - on the contrary, he wants to save him. After all, what is a global order in Putin? This is a system guaranteed by large countries, each of which has its own vital interests. For example, the United States is everywhere, and Russia is within its former empire, that is, in the post -Soviet space. And each nation has the government that deserves - therefore, the algorithm for the change of power should not be imposed from the outside to any state. That's all.

At the beginning of the last decade near the Kremlin, ideas were popular that Russia should lead the movement of the post -Soviet world towards the EU and NATO. But every year of the stay of power in Putin, the ideas grew that the insidious West, which cannot be believed, could be about to change the Russian regime forcibly. With the help of the Russian “fifth column”, of course. The Arab Spring in this regard made an oppressive impression on the owner of the Kremlin. Then - Bolotnaya Square and Sakharov Avenue. Further-the capture of the ex-analytics of the USA of the USA Edward Snowden. Who revealed the eyes of Putin: it turns out that the Americans are listening to everything, including very private and delicate conversations of world leaders (not excluding GDP itself). So, almost nothing can be hidden from the United States. Finally, right in the days of the Putin Triumph at the Sochi Olympics, the damned Americans (and who else!) Organized the next coupling in Ukraine - not otherwise to put the Russian president with the muzzle on the table. And what would happen tomorrow - the NATO base in Sevastopol? And with what would GDP go into a single textbook of world history? With the reputation of the Russian king, who shamefully wrapped the inheritance?

In any of the future versions of the textbook of modern history, they may write that the “Russian spring” (GKChP-2) was specifically invented by the enemies of the Kremlin-as an ideal means of accelerating erosion of the Putin regime

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He could not allow it. Therefore, he overthrew himself the previous one and led himself to power, but new. Put the perestroika-2, having arranged the GKChP-2. And thereby, despite the temporary consolidation of the broad masses around the imperial phantoms and complexes, he accelerated the program of imperial self -destruction. GKChP-2 can last for some time, but not very long. For many years of maintenance of such a model, there is no banal resources: neither economic nor, most importantly, human ones.

Putin's latest policy looks indestructible only in the relations of court sinking subclards. In fact, we can say that after the annexation of Crimea and buchi in the Donbass/Luhansk region (whoever finances and organized it, without promises of political cover from Moscow, it would never have begun), the process of not revival, but the decay of the Russian-Soviet empire, became irreversible. The nearest formal associates of Belarus and Kazakhstan recoiled from the "Russian Spring", clearly not wanting its manifestations in their sovereign territories. Armenia hung up with joining the Customs Union: one thing is one thing to receive from Russia a discount on energy carriers, completely different - to quarrel for this with the whole honest West. The “triumphal” visit of GDP to China looks completely funny: after all, even the price of a gas contract has to be hidden. Not a single serious expert believes that Russian industry will be able to survive without Western technologies and components. For Krymnash we are already paying for a recession recognized by official Putin officials (see, for example, the performance of Herman Gref at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum). Etc.

In any of the upcoming versions of the textbook of modern history, perhaps they will write that the “Russian spring” (GKChP-2) was invented specifically by the enemies of the Kremlin-as an ideal means of accelerating erosion of the Putin regime.

What tomorrow

The terms "revolution" and "palace revolution" have also been updated recently. I will immediately make a reservation that we and the New Times, as law -abiding subjects and objects of law, do not call on anything like this. We just fix Primus.

First of all, all the same people of the “shooters-girkin” system can be the first of all. They are already beginning to understand that the propaganda “Russian Spring” has little to do with real processes in Russia and in the post -Soviet space. They never especially loved Putin and even hated it rather-they just now decided to use the theme of the GKChP-2 to implement their old plans and ambitions. If the plans do not come true, the Russian-spring militia can turn out against the true culprit of the celebration.

Palace coups in history always occur when one person contrasts himself with all elite interests at once. Recall, for example, Paul I in the Mikhailovsky castle. And the fate of Yanukovych is quite indicative. Yes, he demolished the Maidan (according to Putin - the USA). And the reason for the Maidan was the disruption of the signing of the Ukrainian -EU Association Agreement. But the coup was ripe in the thickness of the elites even before these events. When it became clear that the ex-president of Ukraine violated the basic rules of the game and decided to concentrate the fullness of political and economic power in the hands of members of his own family-in the literal sense of the word. And so, again in 2010, when Yanukovych was brought to power, they did not agree.

Can a change in power in Russia according to any of the mentioned scenarios be peaceful and calm? Big question. So large that we will not discuss it in detail now.

We will only say that the GKChP-2 can end in the collapse of Russia in the same way as the GKChP-1 finally blew up the USSR. If when the peppy “Russian Spring” is replaced by a dreary, unpromising autumn, it may quickly find out that many regions categorically do not want to feed either Moscow, North Caucasus, or Crimea. That $ 400 billion of the Chinese contract can be used at the place of production/transportation of gas without sharing with anyone. Fortunately, in this option, the European part of Russia loses its transit value. And individual atypical territories can go their own way of European integration without a giant Euro -Asian ballast yesterday's empire.

Any detailed forecast here is too ungrateful, and even with the taste of human blood.

But there are several basic options. For example:

• A) Putin’s place is occupied by a certain militarized conclave - a junta (as is customary today in official Russian propaganda to call Ukrainian authorities).
• B) The president is replaced by his official successor, the senior political son - like Alexander I, who did not want to prevent the death of his father.
• C) the elites create a kind of transitional government and then transfer power to a historical institution such as a constitutional monarchy.

However, the fatigue of our imperial organism is so great that it is very difficult to believe that the next change of regime will do without great violence and chaos. At this fear of blood, Putin, by and large, holds the situation in the country. And oneself.

But there are historical moments when mortal longing from continuing power becomes worse than any blood. Unfortunately, we are moving towards this point.

Photo: Anton Novododkin/ITAR-TASS