Moscow version in St. Petersburg

On September 14, St. Petersburg will have gubernatorial elections—politicians in the northern capital have little doubt about this, expecting until the end of May Georgy Poltavchenko’s announcement of his early resignation and intention to participate in the elections.

This fits into the general trend - in the last week alone, in five regions (Orenburg, Vologda, Lipetsk, Kursk, Tyumen regions) governors asked to resign in order to go to elections in the fall. And the total number of those who “leave to stay” has reached one and a half dozen.

The reason, of course, is not the desire to “be legitimized” (they say that previously retired governors were approved by regional parliaments on the proposal of the president, but now they want to be elected) - the vast majority of citizens do not think at all about the degree of their legitimacy.

It’s just that until the fall, they believe, the “rating wave” caused by the annexation of Crimea and which sharply increased the popularity of Vladimir Putin and the party in power will still persist. And what will happen next year is unknown. In addition, the municipal filter allows you to reliably control the list of election competitors.

The fact that in the fall of 2014 in St. Petersburg there could be not only scheduled municipal elections (in 106 of 110 intra-city municipalities), but also gubernatorial ones, many spoke last year, when the Crimean topic was not even on the distant horizon.

The fact is that now more than 90% of municipal deputies in St. Petersburg are controlled by United Russia: they were either elected from it in 2009, or subsequently defected to it. The parliamentary opposition - the Socialist-Revolutionaries, Yablokoites and Communists - even with their joint efforts, will not have enough municipal deputies to pass through the filter.

This means that, in addition to the nominee of the party in power, only those candidates who are allowed by United Russia to do so by sharing signatures with them will be able to participate in gubernatorial elections.

After the autumn municipal elections, the balance of power may change significantly, and therefore it is tactically advantageous for United Russia to hold elections now, before this happens, and they will determine who can get on the ballot.

Let us note that until recently, Georgy Poltavchenko and people from his circle assured that there was no talk of any early elections - but on May 14, convincing evidence to the contrary was received. A draft law proposing changes to the current rules for gubernatorial elections was hastily introduced to the Legislative Assembly meeting. Under the pretext of “bringing it into compliance with federal legislation.”

Federal legislation has indeed changed - but such changes occur constantly, and there was no urgent need to change the St. Petersburg law. Moreover, if the gubernatorial elections are not coming soon (Poltavchenko’s powers expire only in 2016). But if they are going to be held on September 14 of this year on a single voting day, then and only then “bringing into compliance” cannot be delayed and must be completed before June 15 (the last date when elections can still be scheduled for September 14).

On May 21, when, after holding two meetings in one day, the law was adopted in the second and then in the third reading, rejecting all the opposition amendments at an accelerated pace, everything became clear. As Stanislav Jerzy Lec used to say, “it’s a shame to suspect when you’re quite sure.”

The essence of the matter, however, is not only that there will be elections. The crux of the matter is also the law under which they will pass. Meanwhile, the changes that the indestructible bloc of United Russia, Zhirinovites and “defectors” (which formed a stable majority in the St. Petersburg parliament) made to the law on gubernatorial elections fully deserve the name “instructions for falsification.”

Firstly, it is allowed to create polling stations “at the place of temporary residence” – including at enterprises. The consequences are known: for example, in December 2011, two such polling stations were created at the Kirov plant, observers were not allowed there (due to the access control regime), supposedly several thousand voters who “temporarily” found themselves at the plant on a day off voted, and United Russia members received votes there 94% of votes.

A similar practice is being prepared for the 2014 elections, especially since the opposition may not even know about “temporary” polling stations (they can be created three days before the vote and a message about this can be printed in one copy of a specially published newspaper, which none of the oppositionists will see).

Secondly, now, in accordance with the decision of the Constitutional Court, the notorious “early voting” is again allowed. However, the opposition’s amendments - that a citizen who wants to vote early should be required to submit copies of documents confirming a valid reason for absence from the city on election day (a vacation or business trip order, etc.) - were rejected.

Therefore, nothing will prevent, as has happened before, buses from bringing pensioners or state employees to polling stations, who, without any proof of the reasons for their absence on election day, will vote early. It’s clear for whom.

Thirdly, early voting in the last three days will take place in precinct commissions - where (unlike TECs) the opposition will not be able to control it: it will not have enough people ready to close almost two thousand polling stations for three days.

Fourthly, there will be no CCTV cameras at polling stations - the opposition’s corresponding amendments were also rejected...

It is clear that there will be elections. It is unclear who from the opposition will be able to participate in them.

Poltavchenko's real competition from the opposition can come from, perhaps, only two politicians - the leader of the Yabloko party in the St. Petersburg parliament, Grigory Yavlinsky, and State Duma deputy and head of the St. Petersburg "Socialist Revolutionaries" Oksana Dmitrieva.

But Smolny also understands this - and, most likely, both will have great difficulties in collecting municipal signatures. Although the Moscow option is also possible (as in last year’s elections for the mayor of the capital) - when the oppositionists will be allowed to register.