"Ukraine has moved forward"

Editor of the magazine "Economist" Edward Lucas on the consequences of the presidential election in Ukraine

Russia has many opportunities for interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine. However, after the victory of Petro Poroshenko, in the presidential election, who took place with a high appearance of voters, Kyiv is able to more effectively resist this. Radio Liberty correspondent Brian Witmore talks with a specialist in Russia, senior editor of the magazine "Economist" Edward Lucas.

- What is the main lesson from the elections held in Ukraine?

- These elections were very dissimilar to the Russian ones, because at the start of the election campaign we did not know who would win. There was a real political choice. It all ended that Poroshenko literally crushed Timoshenko. Such unconditional victories happen in democratic countries. But in advance we could not predict such an outcome. So they (Ukrainian elections) are a serious response to the Putin idea of "controlled democracy." It was a democracy not controlled by someone

Another important lesson is a complete defeat of the ultra -right forces. So the statements that the fascists manage Ukraine is a complete nonsense. Ukraine is controlled by a person who produces chocolate. Therefore, the fact that the “right sector” and “freedom” did not receive anything is a serious counterargument against the demonization of Ukraine by the Kremlin.

- Do you think the situation in the east of Ukraine, in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, casts doubt on the legitimacy of the elections?

- These areas are only part of the East (Ukraine). If you do not take into account the actually lost Crimea, then we are dealing with two regions where there were serious problems. About 10 percent of the population lives there. So for 90 percent the vote was organized normally, for 10 there were serious problems. But I still think that, even given these lost or problematic regions, the turnout turned out to be higher than in most elections in America.

According to European standards, it was an impressive turnout. It will now be very difficult for Russia to declare that all this is a continuation of the fascist coup. However, this is a necessary, but insufficient condition is one of many necessary, but insufficient conditions necessary for Ukraine in order to get to your feet again. The situation in the economy is completely monstrous. We need solutions to the most important constitutional issues, parliamentary elections. And after that, you should try to form an effective government. So only the first step is taken, nothing more.

It will now be very difficult for Russia to declare that all this is a continuation of the fascist coup

“But can we say that Ukraine has seriously advanced?”

“I suppose she advanced a little forward.” I managed to change the discourse. Two months ago, he was to withstand the intervention of the Kremlin and the creation of New Russia, stretching from Crimea to Odessa. Now it is obvious that most Ukrainians did not like how their country was ruled. But most Ukrainians, regardless of what language they consider relatives, do not want to live in Russia, do not want to divide their country.

The idea that Ukraine is a doomed country was defeated by the idea that due to linguistic problems. For a long time, Ukrainians are familiar with the interaction with the outside world. The bilinguality here is natural, and people speak with pleasure both in Russian and in Ukrainian. Language choice is nothing more than a reflection of the situation in a particular family.

The course of events has changed somewhat. It does not seem to me that Putin was seriously affected by sanctions. But I think that the idea of Novorossia was less attractive than he expected. It is one thing to send little green men and arrange chaos. Another thing is to achieve people to support the idea of separatism.

- Russia in recent weeks has somewhat softened its position. Do you think this is a tactical retreat?

- As often happened with Ukraine, everything went not quite as Putin wanted. This is not the first time he makes mistakes. He made a large bet on Yanukovych, but this did not work. He did not understand the Maidan, he thought that it was just a riot, he did not realize that he was a true expression of a political position. In my opinion, he is still trying to turn Ukraine into a dilapidated state. And he can succeed in this. He caused enormous damage to the Ukrainian economy. He has a "gas card" in the reserve. He inflated the fire of ethnic and linguistic contradictions in the eastern regions, where people were killed, and the families were disadvantaged. This is of course largely a tactical retreat. But he achieved a lot of what he wanted, with his ability to provoke chaos. Ukraine is in a terrible situation, and the Western policy is quite toothless.

How often it happened to Ukraine, everything did not go exactly as Putin wanted

- What can be the further actions of Putin?

- I believe, first of all, he will play a gas card. He can say that Ukraine must pay the full price for the gas, and if it does not, then the supply of gas will be blocked. In such a situation, Ukraine should either block supplies to Europe, or survive another strongest blow to its already shaky economy. So, I suspect, this will be his (Putin) further actions.

Separatists in Lugansk and Donetsk, the so -called Novorossia will remain a problem. The Russian propaganda machine is still very effective and-contrary to logic and facts-it will continue to pervert the essence of events. For Ukraine, it will remain a big problem whether to use power to return control on the sovereign territory or allow these militants, thugs and bandits to create their quasi -republics. We are still only at the beginning of the way, so the Kremlin still has many opportunities to harm and intervene.

- How will the situation now develop?

- You need to carefully monitor what is happening inside Russia, how it behaves. Will Putin continue to support the wave of nationalism in the country? Do the Russians begin to doubt the official position? Will he (Putin) try to do this in other places? I will not be surprised if it allows Ukraine for some time to suffer with problems myself, and he will switch attention to countries such as Moldova, or Kazakhstan, or Belarus. One of Putin’s main features is the constant withdrawal of the situation from balance. Words are not confirmed by deeds. He does what they do not expect from him. We are trying to draw a rational picture that corresponds to our ideas about the world. But Putin has completely different ideas about him. He really likes to infuriate us. So something should happen that we do not expect.