Why Putin is in trouble, despite the 86 percent rating

The volume of the bonds of Russian companies in the foreign market from March to this year decreased to $ 2 billion compared to $ 19 billion for the same period last year, which calls for them the opportunity to make $ 191 billion on foreign loans planned for this year. This forces domestic companies to apply for financing to state banks, such as Sberbank and VTB. Those, in turn, may encounter a liquidity deficit due to the outflow of the population deposits and the expected (maximum since 2008) outflow of capital from the country $ 90 billion. In their column for Bloomberg, Evgeny Psalnaya, Henry Meyer and Brad Cook pay attention to this. Even Vladimir Putin, with his 86%approval rating , cannot provide economic growth if world banks like Barclas or HSBC cease to lend to Russian business, and capital is moving mainly in one direction-from Russia. If sanctions are followed by more severe than “restrictions on the travel of billionaires - friends [Putin]” and “several frozen credit cards”, then the stagnation of the economy and the fall of investments will continue, and as a result the role of the state in the economy will increase. The state in the economy already occupies more than half, although in 1999, when Putin came to power, this indicator was only 30%, and the offensive of the public sector continues. For example, according to Bloomberg calculations, for the year that Elvira Nabiullina heads the Central Bank, financing by his private companies has more than doubled - to $ 142 billion. This is 9.5% of all industry obligations. At the same time, the MMEVB index is traded at the levels of 1,500 points close to 1,500, although on March 14 it was almost four -year minimums (1182.89). “In Russia, the outflow of capital and the stock market is not connected,” said Bloomberg Vladimir Pantyushin, senior strategist of the analytical department of Sberbank Cib. Economic growth in Russia during Putin’s presidency - unlike growth in China - is based on an increase in the consumption of Russians, and not on an increase in their savings, said Alexei Vedev from the Gaidar Institute. In China, savings account for about 50% of GDP, and in Russia - 23%. Therefore, modernization in Russia was due to loans, and with them, as shown above, the biggest problems arise. “This cannot last forever,” predicts the end of the current economic model of Russia in a conversation with Bloomberg Alexei Vedev.