When will Putin leave? Seven forecasts

Eighteen years ago, the presidential authority in Russia could stagger at any time. The national leader made the impression on the markets: as a person who, as a result of either complicated Kremlin intrigues, or because of poor health, could easily leave the stage. And this probability itself has already thrown into tremors and investment analysts. At the Troika Dialogue company at one time even stood his man on the New Arbat, this fragment of the main artery of the country's political life. The task of the viewer was to, in which case, not to miss the ambulance car in a hurry in the Kremlin. Since then, the Russian government has obviously strengthened. And the search for signs of her change in the foreseeable future turned into a lesson, frankly, unpromising. The Russians want to see 62-year-old Vladimir Putin by a vital president. And this further complicates the difficult work of forecasters. Two-thirds of the country's population, according to the fresh polls of the Public Opinion Foundation, wish that the current Russian leader remains after the 2018 elections, and this, we recall, against the background of 86%of the support rating recorded by the Levada Center. In general, the fourth or even fifth may well follow the third term. Or it may not be followed. A variety of people, from Pentagon analysts to disgraced oligarchs, from sociologists to astrologers, in recent years have made their assumptions about when Vladimir Putin will leave power (if this happens at all). Slon chose the most famous and most bizarre forecasts.

Richard Kricus: In ... 10 years

Despite the loud name of the May report of the American military expert -“Russia after Putin” - its author believes that there is no need to expect the resignation of the current Russian president in the coming years. All previous predictions of the ambulance and inevitable political death of Putin from the so -called “Kremlin observers” were baseless, Crusus writes. He himself believes that the power in Russia is likely to not change in the next 10 years: “If only health allows, Putin will take part in the 2018 elections and will rule the country in the 2020s ...”.

Sergey Khrushchev: After ... 10-15 years

Of course, the forecasts of the son of Nikita Khrushchev, who have long been living in the United States, cannot represent anything but an extremely approximate, largely speculative picture in which a year or two-three are simply an error. And yet, no matter how wide strokes Sergey Khrushchev wrote the future, it fits into the common ideas that Putin, most likely, will remain in power until 2024. “Take a look at the story,” Khrushchevcalled a couple of years ago. - On the eve of the 1917 revolution, Emperor Nicholas II sincerely and until the last moment believed that "his people" love him. It was already too late by that time. But now the current administration is still quite far from its last moments. If you look at the story, it has at least ten to fifteen years in stock. ”

Mikhail Khodorkovsky: Until ... 2024

With his forecasts regarding the future of the Russian authorities, the disgraced oligarch, at that time still prisoner, shared with the Vedomosti newspaper in October last year (10 years after his arrest). Its version of the development of events: “Putin will leave earlier than 2024, when his hypothetical next presidential term will end. Putin did not have much time left - a maximum of 5-10 years. Any strong crisis, given the current state of state institutions and the level of dialogue with society, can lead to the collapse of the current system. ”

Leonid Sedov: In 2019

The famous sociologist of the Levada Center and the candidate of historical sciences made such a conclusion based on 17-year-old cycles of change in power. Sedov cited the rationale for his opinion in the article “The General Forecast” published in the issue of the journal “Public Sciences and Modernity” in January 2011. The expert gives examples from domestic history: “In 1951-1965, the Stalinists are suppressed by moderate (in the style of the struggle with the“ personality cult ”) anti -Stalinists. In 1968, this political class and the turn came to be sweeping by much more radical opponents of totalitarianism ... Now add 17 years by 1968, and you will receive a restructuring of 1985-1988, that is, the coming to the power of a new political generation, the historical task of which was to remove the elite from the stage, which was established during the Geront power. Further, following this path, we will see 2002, the coming to power of the Putin elite and the crowding out of the reformal elite of the 1990s. Ahead, according to this scheme, 2019, when you can expect the end of the Putin elite. ”

Mikhail Saakashvili: Until ... 2018

We took the courage to interpret the phrase “after a few years”. She adorned the already fiery speech of the retired president of Georgia, which he made on September 26, 2013 from the Tribune of the UN General Assembly in New York. Specifically, the politician said the following words: "After a few years, Vladimir Putin will leave the Kremlin, will disappear from Russian politics." We suspect that thereby Saakashvili expressed hope (hardly having serious reasons) that Vladimir Putin will leave his post with the expiration of the current presidential term and will not participate in the 2018 elections.

Jay Ulfelder: In 2018

The American expert conducts his research on the money of the American special services, which, however, is not hidden by himself, the “interpreter” blog notes . Earlier, of the same sources, he received compensation for the leadership of the group for the study of political instability at the University of Stanford. Ulfelder studied life cycles of 176 authoritarian regimes in 104 countries of the world from 1955 to 2007. The last forecast of an American researcher, made by him in 2012, measures the Russian government 6 years of life. In other words, Putin will leave the Kremlin in 2018, Ulfelder believes.

Alexander Aleksandrov: Until ... 2022

Putin’s rule is not only a source of endless forecasts from professional analysts and political scientists. It is also a new area of ​​esotericism. In his book “The Secrets of Magic Signs”, Alexander Alexandrov conjures over important dates in the life and career of Putin, starting from the date of birth. Here is a fragment of his constructions (the book was written in 2000 and, accordingly, does not take into account the increase in the presidential term from 4 to 6 years): “2022 indicates that the political career of Vladimir Putin will be very long - up to 70 years. It can be assumed that the two terms of the presidency are quite real for him, since they bring us out only for 2008. Consequently, after one period - in 2012 - he can again take part and win in the next elections, and again for two terms - 2012–2020, which completes his political career. We will not say this, but assuming this is quite real, and no one can prevent us from doing this. We conducted a fairly complete analysis of the date of birth of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. From all the above it is clear that he is worthy to be the president of Russia, and even more so: the universe itself blesses him for this. He ”owns the world and knows the path of development of Russia.”