Kyiv defeated fire to understand with whom and with what he, in the end, is dealing with

Kyiv defeated fire to understand with whom and with what he, in the end, is dealing with

The fact that Petro Poroshenko on June 27 in the evening for another 72 hours extended the regime of no force in the zone of the anti -terrorist operation in the Donbass, there is a certain logic.

Firstly, on June 28, Ukraine celebrated the Constitution Day. And the continuation of hostilities would give an occasion of the Russian media controlled by the Kremlin for a powerful information attack regarding the “violation of the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens of Ukraine”.

Secondly, the resumption of hostilities immediately after Ukraine signing an agreement on the Association with the EU would not have looked somehow “European”.

Thirdly, the extra 72 hours gave the Ukrainian security forces an additional opportunity for strengthening the Ukrainian-Russian border, and to strengthen positions in the areas of the main foci of resistance of militants.

Fourth, Poroshenko’s Friday decision to postpone the continuation of the ATO until 22.00 Kyiv time Monday on June 30 immediately received international support. In particular, this sounded from the lips of the UN Secretary General of Pan Hi Muna last Saturday, and even against the backdrop of the UN Human Rights by the Council of Human Rights in support of Ukraine.

And, finally, fifthly, one cannot but take into account the fact that Poroshenko in the EU offices was two whole days. So, he had enough time not only for the official signing of an association agreement with the EU or for an interview with CNN, but also for closed meetings and consultations - both with the leadership of NATO and the EU, and with European leaders who arrived in Brussels in full force.

Echo of a truce

The news that Poroshenko is ready to extend the unilateral non -replacement of force came to Kyiv from Brussels in the first half of Friday. It was a trial ball in the form of a leak of information with reference to some sources at the headquarters of the European Union. So the Poroshenko team had more than enough time for monitoring and analysis. Since the news picked up and began to actively discuss not only Ukrainian media with Ukrainian politicians and political scientists, but also the leaders of militants from the DPR and LPR, who again demonstrated that there was not even a hint of any consistent actions in their ranks. It is enough to say that the two representatives of the DPR-the “governor” Gubarev and the “Minister of Defense” Girkin-Riflekov-expressed categorically against the continuation of the truce. But the “Premier” beard, on the contrary, supported the idea of ​​continuing the truce, adding that he was ready to exchange hostages, but is not ready to free the captured checkpoints on the Ukrainian-Russian border. Which, however, did not prevent him from taking part in the second round of trilateral consultations, held last Friday in Donetsk.

CAZUS Medvedchuk

The oddity of this event lies not only in the fact that representatives of the DPR and the LPR - organizations recognized in Ukraine with terrorist ones take part as a full -fledged side. And not because the ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Oleg Tsarev, who has been put on the wanted list, is the wanted list. And also in the fact that the Ukrainian side is represented by ex-president Leonid Kuchma, the ex-head of his administration Viktor Medvedchuk and the People’s Deputy from the Party of Regions Nestor Shufrich. What they say about that they are discussing, what are the powers of representatives of the Ukrainian side and who exactly decided on such a composition is still unknown. Official Kyiv only stated that Leonid Kuchma allegedly asked Petro Poroshenko. For Medvedchuk, during four -sided telephone consultations between the heads of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia, the word Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel entrusted the word. But who exactly sent to Donetsk Nestor Shufrich is not yet clear. Moreover, the speaker of VP Alexander Turchinov, to whose will both Medvedchuk and Shufrich first referred to the publicly, publicly denied this version.

The final conspiracytic multi -family looks like this: Medvedchuk is associated with Putin Kumov relations. It was the organization of Medvedchuk “Ukrainian Choice” that was the main player during last year’s attempts by the Kremlin at any cost to disrupt European integration and attach Ukraine to the Customs Union. In Kyiv, Putin does not have a closer person today than Medvedchuk. It was for the sake of Medvedchuk that Putin twice put Yanukovych in an extremely uncomfortable position when, during the official visits, he ignored communication with the head of state, preferring him the company of the Ukrainian Kum. At the same time, Putin at all costs needs to minimize the fact of the participation and physical presence of the Kremlin to part of the Ukrainian territory, which is controlled by the militants, transferring the conflict into the format of a purely intra -Ukrainian confrontation. But while preserving the influence on the domestic policy of Ukraine. This can be done by involving a “Ukrainian choice” in the upcoming parliamentary elections as a political force that will replace the deceased Party of Yanukovych's regions. And participation in negotiations (albeit low level), by logic, should bring Medvedchuk from the political shadow to the public plane.

Hot elections

It is difficult to judge how much Medvedchuk’s debut was a success in the field of public diplomacy. As well as it is difficult to evaluate the real successes of the negotiation group. Because they are simply not there yet. In any case, in the first seven days of Poroshenko, the cessation of the active phase of the ATO violated the ceasefire more than seventy times, using Russian tanks, artillery and Grad volley fire system. As a result, twenty were killed and several dozen Ukrainian security forces were injured. Plus, under Slavyansky, militants shot down a helicopter of the ATO forces from the MANPADS, in which nine military personnel died.

In addition, it is impossible to discount that consultations in Donetsk are carried out only with part of the militants who control part of the territory of the Donbass. Since in addition to the well -known DPR and LPR in the captured areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions there are Lisichansk and Severodonetsk People's Republics. And already the leaders of the DPR and the LPR call them self -proclaimed. In addition to these “nanres” only in the Donetsk region there are five independent armed groups: the “Russian Orthodox Army”, “East”, “Strelkovtsy”, “Oplot” and “Demon of Besa”. Smaller gangs that are fighting “for freedom and independence” in the best traditions of gang-show showdowns of the 90s have not yet calculated.

In a word, even if it is announced that Kuchma, Medvedchuk and others have agreed on something, then this will not mean the onset of the long-awaited world. Moreover, in order to agree at least with beard, the Ukrainian side must fulfill a number of mandatory requirements of the militants. Say, take the forces of the ATO by 10 kilometers. Or pay to the militants some fantastic compensations, as required by the Tsarev.

And to imagine that Medvedchuk offers Poroshenko to withdraw troops or give the militants money is quite difficult. And it all comes down to the fact that military operations will be continued, unless Moscow at the last moment does not believe in the seriousness of the EU and the United States about the possible introduction of the third package of sanctions. What Angel Merkel announced last Saturday, confirming the ultimatum, nominated by the leaders of the EU countries of Russia during the summit on June 27. Then it was stated that the European Union until June 30 expects to be released from the captivity of the separators, the return of control over the border points of Izvarino, Dovzhansky and Krasnopartizansk and the agreement on monitoring compliance with the ceasefire.

PS on Saturday in the afternoon, Leonid Kuchma said that he did not see the point in continuing trilateral consultations before 72 hours. “Since a decision was made by the European Union and the president announced 72 hours, then what to lick with them? Why negotiate with them today? We are waiting for Monday, ”said the second president of Ukraine and added:“ If Russia understands that the world is better, and not the war, if Russia understands that Donbass cannot be turned into Transnistria, then it will find mechanisms in order to restore these “great” figures. ”