Sanctions: how serious it is

On the night of July 17, US President Barack Obama said that the United States imposes new sanctions against Russia, including against key sectors of the Russian economy. This news collapsed at the opening of the tender of the Moscow Exchange on July 17 Rosneft shares by more than 5%, and Novatek’s papers - almost 7%. The dollar rate at the beginning of the auction took off to 34 rubles 73 kopecks, and the euro rose to the mark of 47 rubles. It was the energy section of new sanctions that caused such a noticeable effect. The introduction of the leader of the DPR Alexander Boroday and a number of companies of the Russian military-industrial complex could not so noticeably affect the mood of the exchange. The excitement caused the restriction of access to large energy companies, such as Novatek, Rosneft, Gazprombank and VEB, to the American capital market.

The formal basis for the imposition of sanctions is all the same - a violation of the sovereignty of Ukraine and the lack of the desire of the Russian leadership to stop the support of pro -Russian separatists. However, sanctions upon closer examination are quite specific.

On the principle of "do not harm"

Even the official report on the introduction of sanctions states that they should have a maximum impact on Russia, but at the same time have a limited effect on the affairs of American companies. A restriction on the placement of bonds is introduced. That is, we are not talking about the fact that there are obstacles to joint activities with American companies, but this can happen if the Russian leadership does not change its policy.

The American media pay attention to the fact that the blow was inflicted on Rosneft , which supplies more than 4% of crude oil to the world market and provides more than 8% of Russia's GDP. Sanctions do not directly affect existing projects, which is maintained, for example, Exxonmobil. But about the transaction for the purchase of Rosneft, the American oil oil industry Morgan Stanley, probably, you can forget, despite the fact that this deal was considered by the US Federal Trade Commission and received its approval. Now it will be considered by the Foreign Investment Committee already in the light of the adopted sanctions, and the conditions for its passage are evaluated extremely skeptical .

President Putin anticipated the announcement of the sanctions, saying that they can hit the boomerang on the very American business, just mentioning Exxonmobil. In the USA, too, there are skeptics who believe that Rosneft and Novatek will be able to get currency in another place , while other experts are convinced that the blow to the Russian economy will still be very significant.

In the paws of the dragon

The position of the European Union, which is connected with Russia much more closely than the United States, in turn is quite dual. The European Union did not support the US sector sanctions, but recommended the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), as well as the European Investment Bank (EIB) to suspend the financing of joint projects with Russia.

This question for a number of European Union countries is extremely painful. Especially in the situation with the financing of the EBRD, a number of projects aimed at cooperation in border areas with Russia. Here, Finland showed special activity , for which Russian tourists are an important economic factor, and significant funds have already been invested in the development of border infrastructure - both the EBRD and municipalities and individuals. According to the Prime Minister of Finland, Alexander Stubb, he managed to form a group advocating for the withdrawal of projects of border cooperation from the sanctions list, and achieve a positive solution-the sanctions will not affect this type of cooperation with Russia.

In Russia itself there are various views on this issue. If Mr. Sechin, the head of Rosneft, demonstrates self-confidence and, by the way, believes that the introduced sanctions will not affect the current work of the company with the American Exxonmobil, other experts are not so optimistic at the situation of things. For example, Mikhail Krutikhin, the editor -in -chief of the network weekly The Russian Energy, believes that the sanctions will force the long loans to contact Chinese banks, and the Chinese, taking advantage of their monopolist’s position, will include Russia in financial bondage , which will cost the country and its people very expensive. Chinese bondage could have been avoided if there was an opportunity to take money somewhere else. It is possible that the idea voiced by President Putin at the BRICS summit on the creation of an infrastructure development fund is precisely related to the search for a new source of long -term financing.

However, it is still unknown when the fund is created, and long loans are needed tomorrow. The need for them is associated with long -term projects that start Rosneft and Novatek. We need technologies that also need to be bought. And if they are banned from selling Russia directly, then it will also be necessary to overpay to intermediaries. In general, these sanctions are not a disaster, but still a big trouble.

Repetition of the completed?

Nevertheless, the history of sanctions suggests that one thing is statements for the public, and another is a real business. For example, in 1983, after the USSR, according to the most widespread version, shot down the Boeing 747 Korean Air Lines Flight 007 over Sakhalin, the United States canceled a number of financial and economic agreements. At the same time, for example, a project for the construction of an ultramodern research vessel in Japan was not injured, which in early 1984 came from Japan to Sakhalin and began to conduct survey work on the Sakhalin Shelf.

The vessel was equipped with the latest Sonars of the side review, two drilling robots, an excellent geotechnical laboratory and a whole complex of western navigation systems. How it passed in the USSR bypassing the prohibitions of COMC to supply to the country of high -tech equipment to the USSR. One version was called the economic interest of the Americans who closed their eyes to the production of the Japanese vessel due to the fact that the construction of oil and gas production platforms was supposed to be transferred to American companies that lobby for participation in this project. On the Japanese side, the project was supported by Sodeco - Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development Co., LTD, with which, incidentally, in June last year, Rosneft signed a contract for the supply of liquefied natural gas in the amount of 1 million tons per year since 2019. Another 1.25 million tons of LNG should be delivered annually by Marubeni.

American experts note that a new package of sanctions, of course, is much softer than those sanctions that were imposed on Iran. Russian companies will simply encounter difficulties in their work and a decrease in profit. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, these sanctions will cost the Russian economy at least 1% of GDP, which is a very significant number - in fact, this will mean sliding into a recession.

Thus, these sanctions will not cause the collapse of the Russian economy, but at the same time - they will demonstrate, in case of their effectiveness, that economic levers are still in the hands of the largest economy in the world. If Russia can find a way out of the situation, without changing its attitude to Ukrainian processes, then it is logical to expect strengthening sanctions, and exacerbation of the confrontation. The question is also whether the fulfillment of the requirements of the United States and the European Union by Russia regarding the Ukrainian conflict to the cancellation of sanctions, or they will turn into a permanent threat, with variable packages of requirements. The best way out would probably be to cope with sanctions, and learn to achieve their political goals in the same way as American and European partners.