Analysts' opinions and forecasts on how the ruble will behave on July 29

After a short respite, the situation on the Russian foreign exchange market worsened again. The ongoing military conflict in the south-east of Ukraine, which caused a new wave of US sanctions against large Russian companies and banks, the crash of a Malaysian airliner in the combat zone in Ukraine - all these events only increase pressure on the Russian currency. In such conditions, exchange rate fluctuations increase, and their successful forecasting increases the investor's income. Is it worth buying a currency now or can you wait, which has a greater impact on exchange rates - politics or economics, where will the dollar and euro exchange rates go? Kommersant continues to publish the opinions of analysts from the largest Russian banks on these and other issues of the foreign exchange market.

Dmitry Savchenko, chief analyst at Nordea Bank:
At the beginning of the week, the market continues to live with expectations of the EU's decision on sanctions against Russia. In this light, the ruble was under pressure, which exporters resisted less noticeably this time as the tax period was coming to an end. It can also be said that the Central Bank’s decision did not support the market in any way. The fall of the stock market indicates an outflow of capital, which will continue to put pressure on the ruble. This week, the activity of exporters will continue to fall due to the completion of tax payments, which means that support for the Russian currency will weaken and the main and, in fact, the only factor in the movement in the foreign exchange market will be the EU decision on sanctions, which the market expects on Tuesday. Don't expect any good news; the rhetoric will be harsh. As a result, the dollar exchange rate may rise further.

Andrey Bogun, trader at Globex Bank:
The coming days will be quite interesting, as they will be filled with important economic data and events that can have a significant impact on market behavior. We can probably expect high volatility in the major currency pairs. The Russian market is awaiting new sanctions from Europe, which may be adopted before the end of July. This news background continues to have a negative impact on the ruble. As for Tuesday trading, we expect the dollar exchange rate to trade at 35.40-35.80 rubles/$.

Sergey Fishgoit, Deputy Head of the Foreign Exchange Market Operations Department at Otkritie Bank:
An additional round of tension between Russia and the West sent the ruble downward. Investors fear tougher sanctions from the EU, a package of which is expected to be announced on Tuesday. As a result of these sanctions, an increase in capital outflow from the debt and stock markets of the Russian Federation is expected. The decision of the Hague Arbitration in the Yukos Case also adds fuel to the fire, according to which Russia was awarded $50 billion to the successors of the owners of the Yukos company. The Bank of Russia's rate increase by 0.5 bp did not help the ruble either. We expect further growth of the dollar exchange rate to levels of 35.50-35.65 rubles/$.

Analysts' forecast for the dollar exchange rate as of 01.08

banksDollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$)

Alfa Bank	34.40-35.25
Promsvyazbank	35.0-35.50
Nordea Bank	35.4
Globex Bank	35.20-35.50
Bank Zenith	35.4
Bank opening	34.70-35.20
Binbank	34.80-35.60
Absolut Bank	35.4-36.00
consensus forecast	35.26

The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts

Foreign exchange market today