Fourth Forsho rating

The Civil Society Development Fund Konstantin Kostin prepared the fourth integral rating of the heads of regions. The rating had a planned intrigue and either in connection with this intrigue, or not - not quite expected results.

The intrigue was that in the fourth issue, a new criterion was added to the effectiveness of governors: " Fulfilling the Kremlin’s installation on" openness, legitimacy and competitiveness "in regional elections ."

Previously, Forso's governors were evaluated by five modules (a maximum of 100 points), including using the Sociological survey of Foma "Goreting" (a maximum of 75 points), data of the Federal State Statistics Service (a maximum of 5 points), a rating of social well -being of regions (5 points), economic assessment of the population (10 points), and the media efficiency of the national monitoring service (5 points).

Now the sixth assessment module has been introduced: an expert opinion on observing the Openness, legitimacy and competitiveness in the elected regions. In those regions where electoral legislation is violated, there are public scandals and facts of administrative pressure, the governor can be “fined” by 20 points. But if there - according to experts - try to correct the situation, then the damage will be less, 10 points.

Konstantin Kostin

In an interview with Kommersant, K. Tryn explained that " the cleanliness of the elections is an equally important factor in assessing the activities of regional authorities than the implementation of the May decrees of the president ." He considers the fact of the use of a municipal filter in a particularly important point. But it is also not unambiguous here, since not all parties have sufficient representation at the municipal level and they may have objective difficulties with overcoming the filter.

That is, the governors are not to blame at all in all cases when their opponents are removed from the elections in parties or do not gain the right number of municipal signatures. Sometimes the parties themselves are to blame. So, it was assumed that the Governor of St. Petersburg Poltavchenko would do without loss, although his main opponent, State Duma deputy Oksana Dmitriev (SR), the municipal filter did not pass.

Accordingly, the governors have problems here, who " unnecessarily clearing the political field where there is no risk ." What should be understood so that if there is a risk, good stripping does not hurt? In a word, it was assumed that Nizhny Novgorod, Lipetsk, Tula governors can lose points. And the same “Kommersant” quoted the source of the EP: “ We ourselves are interested in the Parliamentary Parties to participate in the regional elections and where it is possible, trained before the federal election cycle .”

Konstantin Kalachev

Probably, the installation on a clean struggle is not even connected so that everything is very competitive - this is the second thing. It seems that this parameter simply adds another position in which the Kremlin will be able to filter the governors, if necessary. For example, one of the Experts of Forso, Konstantin Kalachev, believes that mostly uncertain governors fight “non -electrical methods”. That is, the opposition had one more meaning: it is that the correct governor should defeat exclusively by the power of his mind and daily practice.

It was about the changes. Some surprise was found that out of 30 governors who would go to the polls on September 14, at the seven rating showed negative dynamics. Despite the fact that according to the previous rating , in the regions where the parliamentary elections are coming, there was no catastrophic decrease in the positions of existing governors anywhere, so they did not expect many problems.

And here - a negative dynamics at once at seven. But the fact is that these are different things: negative dynamics and place in the list. Kostin himself, commenting on the 4th Izvestia issue, which (rating) was published , said that " there are no back fluctuations. We mainly observe corrective changes in indicators for several points ."

Valery Shantsev

Now - particular. The rating publishers pay attention to the fact that the head of the Nizhny Novgorod region of Shantsov (fell by 15 seats), Governor of St. Petersburg Poltavchenko (- 4 places), the head of the Samara region Merkushkin (- 11 seats) drew from the group of the “very high rating”. Kostin believes that it was precisely the new parameter, “Cola factor” (competitiveness, openness, legitimacy) affected. So, despite the assumptions that in connection with Dmitrieva Poltavchenko will have no problems, they appeared. However, paying for this fact only four positions in the ranking is not a problem. Well, perhaps Poltavchenko fell out of the leaders in the second group, just a "high rating".

The rest is not categorical in the first change: the Yamal-Nenets Kobylkin is still ahead. Kadyrov is growing, now already 6th place. This group first included the head of the Voronezh region Gordeev (+ 5 seats) and the governor of the Vladimir region Orlov (+ 8 seats)-they share the 9–10th line between themselves. The head of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Kopin (- 1st place) and the mayor of Moscow Sobyanin (- 10 seats) from this dozens fell out.

In connection with Sobyanin, an accident is mentioned in the subway, despite the fact that - according to Kostin - everything is in order with the elections to the Moscow City Duma, the competition will be ensured, " all political forces are widely represented in the MGD elections ." The situation in future elections in the Samara region was poorly reflected in Merkushkin. Its opponents are Matveev (Communist Party) and Maryakhin (“Fair Russia”) are accused by the acting The heads of the region in abuse of powers and the use of an administrative resource in the collection of signatures. A similar situation is at Shantsev, whom Bulanov from the Communist Party complains about, quite relevant that " the head of the region does not fulfill the Kremlin’s indication of compliance with three basic rules - competitiveness, openness and legitimacy ."

The High Rating group has not changed much in comparison with the previous rating, except that the above Poltavchenko, Merkushkin and Shantsev moved into it. At the same time, the remaining heads of elected regions showed positive dynamics: the head of the Primorsky Territory Miklushevsky (+ 2 places), the head of the Bashkiria Hamitov (+ 2 places), the governor of the Orenburg region Berg (+1 place), the head of Yakutia Borisov (+ 1st place), the governor of the Ivanovo region of the skates (+3 places), the head of the Altai Berdnikov (+ 3 seats).

But in the group " Middle Rating " there are citizens whose positions worsened greatly with the introduction of the sixth parameter of the Forso. The acting head of the Lipetsk region Korolev fell to 22 places and now he No. 51. Experts who worked on a new rating write that in his region problems arise even among parliamentary parties. And the most serious opponent Korolev, a candidate from the Communist Party of Razvorotnev, was simply not allowed into the polls.

The acting head of the Kirov region of the White slipped 14 positions down and now in the 68th place. Experts believe that he puts pressure on the opposition during the campaign. However (Izvestia reports), according to the Vice President of the Center for Regional Studies of Turovsky, there is still no real restriction in the region, " rather, this is a reflection that the whites came to the region from the opposition and does not have absolute support in the presidential administration ."

In the Tula region, the governor’s elections do not pass this year, and the head of the region Gruzdev has yet failed to 19 lines - down in connection with accusations against opposition candidates participating in the elections to the regional legislative assembly. Plus, according to Kostin, corruption reports negatively affected Gruzdev’s reputation and took his points in the ranking. But the main ones here were public claims by the leader of Fair Russia Sergey Mironov that the region was pressure on candidates from the parliamentary party. In this fact, one can also find a certain meaning of the existence of the "Fair Russia" party, they fulfill a certain social function in party life.

In general, in this scheme, with the 6th parameter, there is some paradox-the governor can fall in the ranking, but the opposition’s clamp itself may well help him win. Well, then a bad score on this item can be considered as a delayed risk: " Forsho rating is aimed at reminding the governors at the beginning of the campaign that they should try to avoid the emergence of noticeable scandals during the elections ."

Finally, a " death group ." Compared to the last version of the rating, there were no changes there, except that the head of Karelia Khudilainen rose to the group of middle peasants. None of the governors of this group participate in the elections this fall, but the dynamics of the entire list is negative - the head of the Perm Territory of the Basargin - minus 3 places, the head of North Ossetia Mamsurov - minus 5, Governor of the Bryansk region Denin - minus 5, head of the Yaroslavl region of the hawks - minus 2, governor of the Tver region Shevelev - minus 4.

Publications Polit.ru on previous ratings

" Governor's point " (1st rating), January 27, 2014.

" Forgo and folk effectiveness of governors" (1st rating), January 27, 2014.

" Forgo, rating number two", April 9, 2014.

" Large problems are not expected" (3rd rating), June 23, 2014.

In addition, about the general trend of party-political life here: " The end of the party illusion. Already almost officially"