Putin and sanctions - who?

Political scientists disagree on how new sanctions against Russia will be reflected in the position of Vladimir Putin in power

The European Union has published a list of Russian companies and businessmen, which are distributed by sectoral economic sanctions.

Among these companies were the defense concern "Almaz-Antei", which produces air defense systems, the Goodlet Lawkoster (Aeroflot's subsidiary), which performs flights to Crimea, and the Russian National Commercial Bank, which became the dominant player in the Crimean financial market.

Citizens who are distributed by sanctions are the deputy head of the administration of the President of Russia Alexei Gromov, the head of the Board of the NMP Bank Arkady Rotenberg, the shareholders of the Russian Bank Yuri Kovalchuk and Nikolai Shamalov, businessman Konstantin Malofeev, Minister of Internal Affairs of Crimea Sergey Abisov, speaker of the Supreme Council of the Folk Republic Boris Litvinov, as well as also Representative of the press service of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic Oksana Chigrin.

The first reaction of Russian officials to the sectoral sanctions of the European Union was emphasized by optimistic. Pavel Zavalny, Deputy Head of the Duma Energy Committee, said that the companies of the Russian fuel and energy complex have resources to overcome the consequences of sanctions. "We turn to face our domestic oilfieldervis, science, applied science. We can overcome all difficulties," Zavalny said.

The deputy head of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship, the first deputy head of the Just Russia faction Mikhail Emelyanov also foresees positive consequences. In his opinion, sanctions will help to improve the Russian economy, reorient it to internal resources. Emelyanov does not see critical problems in the sanctions, but he believes that the West should answer the import of imports and services.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin spoke about sanctions in the spirit of the Cold War rhetoric: “Obama’s decision to impose sanctions on OSK (the United Shipbuilding Corporation) is the correct sign that Russian military shipbuilding is becoming a problem for the enemies of Russia,” Rogozin wrote on his Twitter.

According to the director of the International Institute of Political Research by Yevgeny Mingchenko, the introduction of new sanctions against Russia will cause the growth of Vladimir Putin’s rating and strengthening it in power:

- In the short -term and, even I think, in the medium term, sanctions will contribute to the consolidation of the ruling elites around Vladimir Putin and will cement his rating. Perhaps he will even grow a little. The elites have the opportunity to rely on some external financial sources and have political external allies. In the long run, it is clear that the economic situation will deteriorate in connection with the sanctions. The question is how seriously it will deteriorate. And in general, in itself, the dynamics of the Russian economy gives little reasons for optimism. This, of course, will create a certain negative background. But again, it will give the authorities to argue that this is not because of our internal problems, but due to the fact that the external enemy presses us. Therefore, if someone believes that sanctions will contribute to Putin's early departure from power, they are mistaken. The sanctions will strengthen the political regime of Vladimir Putin, ”says political scientist Yevgeny Mintchenko.

The opposite point of view is adhere to the leading researcher at the Institute of System Analysis of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Piontkovsky. In his opinion, Vladimir Putin is in the Tsugzvang situation, when any step in the international arena will lead to a deterioration in his position as a state leader and lead to a loss of power:

- As for the broad masses, in order for them to feel the influence of sanctions on their own wallet, a lot of time should pass when the bankruptcy of enterprises begin, the devaluation of the ruble and all sorts of other unpleasant things. And without sanctions, our economy was breathing in the incense ... But it will take time-months and up to a year. As for the moods of the elites, according to all indirect signs, according to the statements of the representatives of these elites, of course, completely loyal and careful, advising Vladimir Putin what to do, it is clear that they are extremely unhappy with what is happening. All these are very rich people, and, unlike you and me, they are already losing very large amounts of money now, and large players are just billions of dollars, due to the fall in the capitalization of their assets. Therefore, the mood inside the top is this: why should we tolerate this because of one not quite adequate character? This mood is growing.

- In your opinion, does Putin act as a thoughtful politician, a strategist, or do personal grievances and other emotional manifestations take over him?

- Personal grievances and complexes are characteristic not only for Putin, but for the entire Russian political class. All these complexes of greatness: we all offended us, Great Russia gets up from the knees and so on ... But Putin has a leading way to hold power. And in this regard, he is in a very difficult situation. Having retreated, he will lose his authority in the eyes of his environment and in his eyes. And going even further along the path of confrontation, he accelerates the process of economic collapse. Both scenarios in the future lead to his loss of power in a fairly visible prospect. I am not the first and not the last who will say that this is the classical position of Zugtswang. He has no good moves. One of the desperate moves was the statement of his beloved court jester Kolesnikov that the poor Putin, who will never allow children to die, terribly experiences the catastrophe of the Boeing of the Malaysian Boeing, and if they finally prove that the Donetsk separatists are guilty, he will completely abandon them. In my opinion, this is a poorly veiled, desperate dispatch of Putin himself to Washington. The answer to the statements of the White House administration that Putin is guilty: not me, not me, call me this Girkin, and then I will hand it over. Obviously, confusion and panic reign at the top, and different scenarios of leaving the situation are considered. But there are no good scenarios, ”says political scientist Andrei Piontkovsky.