July déjà vu

100 years ago, a world war came to the European continent

On July 31, the Berlin Stock Exchange closed, German banks lowered the exchange rate of the Russian ruble - from 216 marks to 206 marks for 100 rubles. Do not rub your eyes or assume that the author has gone crazy. Russian newspapers actually published telegrams with such news on July 31 (18), but only exactly 100 years ago.

Even a simple comparison of the chronology of July 1914 with what is happening today in relations between Russia and the West is striking in coincidence, of course, not in details - historical facts are unique, inimitable and parallels are unacceptable here, but by the logic that rigidly connects them into one chain and Thus, it forms a natural process when the course of events that inevitably bring catastrophe no longer depends on the will and desire of individual people, even if they are at the very top of political power.

The list of personalities of the Russian elite who fell under visa restrictions and freezing of accounts, targeted economic sanctions against certain state corporations, banks and firms cannot be literally compared with the announcement of an ultimatum by Austria-Hungary to Serbia, general mobilizations in Russia, Germany and other countries of the Entente and the Triple Alliance, after which the war, which cost 17 million human lives, became inevitable.

However, déjà vu arises and grows stronger. To the comparison of two Julys, sensations-memories of the times of the Cold War, constantly teetering on the verge of a hot one, are added. From the 60s - the Caribbean crisis, the Vietnam War, August Prague of the 68th. From the 70-80s - the Afghan war, the boycott of the Moscow Olympics, the downed South Korean Boeing.

Today, unfortunately, historical memory is not popular in Russia, it is replaced by patriotic myths. This is clearly evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by VTsIOM on July 28, the day of the 100th anniversary of the start of the First World War. In total, almost 60 percent of the respondents were unable to name its causes and immediate cause, while the instigators, according to some Russians, were England, France and the United States. In this situation, and taking into account the total propaganda, it is not at all surprising that two-thirds of the population of today's Russia are convinced that Western powers, led by the United States, are behind the hostilities in eastern Ukraine.

The return of Soviet propaganda clichés about "enemy imperialist encirclement", "the intrigues of the West to undermine national security", etc. from memory turned into reality. Moreover, they, forever, it would seem, already handed over to the archive of history, covered with dust and touched with mold, became unusually in demand by the new strike forces of the television front and, what is saddest, found fertile ground in the minds of the majority of the Russian population. In this regard, states the German Süddeutsche Zeitung, Western sanctions have no real prospects for changing Putin's position, since "every next step will be presented to the Russian people as confirmation that they want to be brought to their knees."

Meanwhile, the broadcast propaganda escalation of the Ukrainian crisis continues to gain momentum, raising the degree of public sentiment. A little more and the tragically famous phrase will sound from the screen: “I ask you: do you want a total war? If need be, do you want a more total and radical war than you can even imagine today?” Then, in February 1943, the Germans answered yes to these questions of Goebbels, which they remembered and terribly regretted long after May 45th. But that was later. In the current series of dramatic events, it is difficult, and often impossible, to discern and single out the last one, after which it will not be possible to change anything and stop the onset of a tragic denouement.

According to the information of the online portal Der Spiegel, the statement of the European Community of Leaders for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which expresses serious concerns about the unpredictability of the consequences of a further confrontation between the West and Russia, reminds of this, according to the online portal Der Spiegel. “We believe,” the authors of the statement write, “that the conflict in eastern Ukraine endangers the security of all of Europe.” With thousands of nuclear warheads on alert from the Russian and Western sides, well-known experts warn, political leaders need to carefully weigh each step, as the situation, as happened with the downing of the Malaysian Boeing, could at any moment to get out of control. Under this statement, in particular, the former defense ministers of Germany, Great Britain, France, Poland and Turkey put their signatures. There are also Russian names under the document - former Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and head of foreign intelligence Vyacheslav Trubnikov, although it is not a fact that they actually did this.

Between July 1914 and July 2014, on the one hand, there is a huge time distance, and, on the other hand, they are very close for those who remember that the world is very fragile, and the price for ambition can be very high. In the First World War, three world empires — Russian, German and Austro-Hungarian — perished, and most European monarchies collapsed.

Such deja vu.