Neutral Lukashenko

The President of Belarus became an intermediary in organizing negotiations on the settlement of a crisis in Ukraine

In Minsk, in the situation of complete closure for the press, tripartite negotiations on the situation in Ukraine were organized. The readiness of Belarus to provide a platform for such negotiations has become the main event in the political life of the country of recent days. Analysts and politicians talk about whether this is a purely technical step or the choice of Minsk as a site for negotiations increases the geopolitical role of Alexander Lukashenko, gives it the status of an international intermediary.

According to reports in the press, the Second President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, the Ambassador of Russia to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov and the OSCE representative take part in the Minsk negotiations.

On July 29, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, agreed to make Minsk a platform for negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. According to the press service of the Belarusian president, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko addressed the head of Belarus with such an offer to the head of Belarus. Later, the willingness of Belarus to hold in Minsk consultations on the Ukrainian crisis was approved by Russia, which was stated in the capital of Tajikistan Dushanbe, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

High -ranking Russian and German diplomats expressed the hope that negotiations in Minsk would lead to positive results. “The main on the agenda remains the ceasefire at least in the area of the airliner’s disaster and the beginning of the dialogue for the implementation of decisions recorded in the Geneva statement of April 17, the G. Berlin Declaration of July 2,” the state-owned conversation of the state secretary, deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Grigory Karasin said in a statement Ederrer.

In Minsk, however, not everyone shares this optimism. The first head of independent Belarus, the former chairman of the Supreme Council , Stanislav Shushkevich, believes that Lukashenko does not play an independent role, and the position of Russia does not contribute to progress in negotiations.

- I think that there will be no shifts from negotiations. The hypocrisy that Russia is when it wants to send peacekeepers there, when the invaders want to act as peacekeepers, this is not a dimensionless person. To hope that Putin Lukashenko’s slave can play some kind of constructive role here, should not be. Lukashenko was, is and will be under Putin, he will not dare to do half a step, not allowed by Putin. Therefore, there will be another farce. It is only a pity that the naive West hopes for something here. This is absolutely excluded, I'm sure of this, ”says Shushkevich.

“First of all, it should be noted that international law draws a clear difference between the functions of an intermediary and the functions of the subjects that the so -called good services provide,” says political scientist Yuri Chausov . - That is, it contributes to the resolution of the conflict not by mediation, but in other ways, including the provision of the site on which negotiations are carried out. In this case, the role of the intermediary is played by the OSCE, and Belarus only provides good services, that is, provides its territory for negotiations.

As for possible political dividends from such a role, they are low, since this is a purely technical function. For example, until recently, negotiations of this kind took place in Geneva, and it is hardly possible to say that Geneva’s foreign policy status increased or changed. On the other hand, Minsk is in such a deep international isolation that for Belarus even such a function can be progress in the sense that Belarus will be represented as a side that contributes to the resolution of the conflict.

However, I note that the subject of negotiations is very specific things that are not directly related to the resolution of the conflict or ceasefire. This is the release of hostages and the admission of international experts into the territory controlled by the separatists, where the remains of the downed Boeing are located. On the other hand, if success in this round of negotiations is achieved, perhaps this will become the basis for negotiations on more significant things.

-Is it possible on the basis of the fact of negotiations in Minsk to conclude about some growth of the geopolitical weight of Alexander Lukashenko, what are some commentators say?

Minsk is simply from a technical point of view a more convenient place for such negotiations, and performs the function of neutral territory where any side of the conflict will feel as a guest

- Of course, you can’t. Of course, there were Lavrov’s statements that negotiations in Minsk would indicate an increase in the role of Belarus in the international arena, but this is actually only a consequence of the emerging fracture in the relations of Minsk and the West. From a technical point of view, Minsk is simply a more convenient place for such negotiations, and performs the function of neutral territory where any side of the conflict will feel as a guest.

The diplomats of both sides have already tried to meet in the West, but not much came of it. Moscow does not want to negotiate about Ukraine in the West, and Belarus is better than any other country approaches this role, given the “balanced” and “repeated” position that Lukashenko tries to demonstrate in this conflict, ”says political scientist Yuri Chausov.