How much will we lose

As a result of sanctions, the Russian economy may not be read 5 trillion rubles

Financial sector

Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank, Bank of Moscow, VTB and Rosselkhozbank fell under the sanctions of the United States and the European Union, which significantly reduces their ability to lend abroad. This will mean increasing the value of loans within the country and their reduction. However, not only banks and state -owned companies that fell under sanctions will suffer: Russian business as a whole will be much more difficult to borrow money. And until the end of 2014, he needs to find over $ 100 billion to pay off existing debts. Some experts believe that money can be found in Hong Kong and in China, but there are also monitored by Russian companies with open arms.

The search for this money in the domestic market will add pressure on the growth of bets. For the population, this can result in more stringent requirements for borrowers and reduction of mortgage lending, the consequence of this is a reduction in housing demand. This will follow the reduction of housing construction and decline in related sectors. For example, in the production of building materials and demand for construction services. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development turns investment projects in Russia (about € 10 billion per year), and this was lending to medium and small businesses, for example, grocery and pharmacy networks, which means that they and, therefore, we will also begin problems.

Dual -purpose technologies

Such technologies include nuclear materials and equipment; chemical materials, microorganisms and poisons - for example, additives for the production of different brands of gasoline; Material processing technologies - say, anti -corrosion coating of pipes for gas and oil industries, and the pipes themselves will not be bought; Telecommunication technologies are mobile and fixed communication stations, chips for GLONASS and GPS; navigation equipment, element base for mobile phones and computers; Information technologies - software for banks, antivirus programs, encoded digital products, including banks. Imagine if the American Oracle stops working with a Sberbank - will we return to savings and paper file cabinets? Further, the so -called "sea goods": in the list, for example, underwater devices and cameras for underwater shooting. This is a list of dozens of pages, often ambiguously interpreted, and here a lot will depend on the position of exporters and - which is even more important - which instructions will be given to customs. The category of chemical materials, for example, reagents that are used in the technologies of the hydraulic fraction of the formation. Although Russian companies are not engaged in the production of shale breeds, nevertheless, the corresponding technologies are actively used by oil companies for oil production (see the analysis of the rating agency Fitch below). Thus, more than half of the new high -tech wells drilled by Gazpromneft last year used hydraulic jacket technology.

The oil sector

Under sanctions, the technology of production on the shelf fell - we have these deposits in the Arctic and Sakhalin. Slantsy production technologies also fell under sanctions, and they are necessary for oil production in long -developed oil fields in Western Siberia, where up to 25 % of the so -called hard -to -reach oil remained. The deficiency of these technologies can lead to a decline in oil production and a reduction in budget revenues. Experts evaluate a possible reduction in oil production by several percent.

Defense industry

The sanctions of the EU and the USA are unlikely to be tangible to the defense industry, since the integration of Russia with the EU and the US countries in this sector is quite limited.

In the end

If the impact of sanctions is significant, Russia will have to engage in import substitution, which means the redistribution of significant resources from effective industries and companies to create new or growth of old, less effective. As a result, the competitiveness of our economy will fall even more. Expert assessments of Russia's losses from imposed sanctions begin with 1 trillion rubles (or 1.5 % of GDP) this year and about 3.5 trillion rubles (4.4 % of GDP) in 2015.