Translated material
Experts about the upcoming meeting of Putin and Poroshenko in Minsk: the outcome is unclear, but Lukashenko will win anyway
On Tuesday, August 26, negotiations are planned in Minsk, during which representatives of Ukraine, the European Union and the Customs Union will discuss the political and economic situation in Ukraine. The most anticipated point of the program is the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko, the possibility of which is not excluded in the Kremlin. The presidents are expected to be expected to lead to the completion of hostilities. Experts, meanwhile, talk about the political triumph of Lukashenko . A review of articles on this topic is published by the heading site.
The event will be held in the Independence Palace, the Belarusian site TUT.BY clarifies. The first to arrive in Belarus will be President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. Fifteen minutes after his arrival, the aircraft of the EU Supreme EU for Foreign Affairs Katherine Ashton and the EU Commissioner for the Trade of Karel de Gyukht should sit down. Then the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and the EU Commissioner Gunter German Ettinger will arrive. The last in Minsk will be Russian President Vladimir Putin. Minsk residents have already warned of a possible change in the work schedule of the National Airport and restriction of road traffic.
The administration of the President of Ukraine has already reported on Twitter about the arrival of Poroshenko in Minsk. And on Twitter of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry there were reports of the arrival of Ashton and de Gyhta. Soon after, it became known about the meeting of Poroshenko and Ashton.
"We are in order to seek ways to harmonize the relations of Ukraine with the Customs Union, the CIS free trade zone and the European Union in the economy. We are convinced that if you have goodwill and desire to be guided by the norms of the WTO and other norms of international law can be agreed on all these issues," said the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov , commenting on the upcoming meeting.
He confirmed that a number of bilateral meetings were planned in Minsk and recalled that Russia recognized Poroshenko as the President of Ukraine in the hope that he would "stop the war, and not drive the conflict in the country to a dead end."
The press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov did not exclude the possibility of meeting Putin and Poroshenko. According to him, there were a lot of topics for discussion: "This is a discussion of the intra -Ukrainian crisis, a terrible humanitarian catastrophe in the east of the country, the need to cease." In addition, according to him, the leaders of the two countries can discuss bilateral relations in the light of the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU and the economic consequences of such a step.
Dmitry Peskov suggested that one of the topics for the conversation between the two presidents will be the next detention of allegedly representatives of the "Right Sector" of foreign journalists. “It is impossible to exclude. There is no fixed agenda. The time, of course, is not unlimited, but let's hope,” said the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation to the Russian News Service , noting that in Moscow they repeatedly declared the unacceptability of any restrictions in the work of journalists.
Official Kiev speaks of the upcoming meeting more confidently, Kommersant notes. The deputy head of the President of Ukraine Valery Chaly, even on August 19, expressed the hope that the conversation would face the “beginning of the real negotiation process to resolve the Ukrainian crisis”.
At the same time, the head of the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin, commenting on the upcoming meetings, demonstrated rather aggressive rhetoric. “Minsk will be difficult, but we are ready for diplomatic battle. The president is determined. We are shaken by misinformation, so I ask: keep calm,” the minister wrote onTwitter .
“Everyone is waiting for only one positive result - the cessation of hostilities. But the Kiev authorities cannot stop the war, since in this case it will have to immediately switch to solving a difficult task - restoring the destroyed economy,” the publication of the Ukrainian economist Alexander Dudchak quoted.
And the Kiev political scientist Dmitry Ponamarchuk believes that it will not be possible to achieve significant progress in Minsk, because the meeting will pass "not even on neutral territory." "Minsk is the territory of the state that is allied to Russia, a country that is actually with us (Ukraine. - Note Newsru.com ) at war)," the expert says, noting that Poroshenko will be in the summite in the minority. For Putin, according to Ponamarchuk, not only the leaders of Belarus and Kazakhstan "play", but also "remotely angel Merkel."
Radio "Freedom" believes that Poroshenko is going to Minsk to agree on the world, since, according to him, "the whole world is tired of the war." And Ashton on the eve of the meeting emphasized that negotiations in Minsk are "an opportunity that cannot be missed."
The EU hopes to convince the parties to the benefits of Ukrainian Euro Association
It is worth noting that on the eve of Angel Merkel discussed with Poroshenko the path of peaceful settlement of the situation in the Donbass by phone, and the Ukrainian president informed the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany about the "deterioration of the situation." Another topic of the conversation was the early termination of the powers of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine as a step towards strengthening democratic institutions in the country.
EU representatives at the summit hope to discuss political problems and safety problems, as well as confirm their concern about the humanitarian situation in the east of Ukraine, writes RBC with reference to the European Foreign Policy Service (EUS). The European Commissioner for Trade Karel does not intend to once again explain why the Ukrainian -EU Association Agreement is a positive factor for the entire region.
Western politicians supporting Ukraine were faced with the fact that the fighting in the country is becoming more fiercely, it is impossible to turn a blind eye to this, which additionally strengthens the Russian position and forces Western partners to put pressure on Poroshenko, political scientist Maria Lipman believes.
In addition, Russia for a meeting in Minsk has grown its negotiation positions, since the story with a humanitarian convoy is, among other things, “a statement of the position of force in the sense that no one is a decree, the Ukrainian government does not control its territory, and Russia can act at its discretion, it has significant levers and space for maneuver.”
The position of Russia in Ukraine has not changed, the expert notes: Moscow needs guarantees that Ukraine will not be in the Western orbit of influence and the possibility of influence on the policy of Kyiv through the right of the Veto regions will remain.
The summit in Minsk is the political triumph of Lukashenko, experts note
"Independent newspaper" believes that, regardless of the outcome of negotiations in Ukraine, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will win.
“The consent of all parties to a meeting in Minsk suggests that the verified and consistent position of the Belarusian side in relation to the Ukrainian crisis justified itself: not to become a party to the conflict, but in every possible way to contribute to the settlement of the conflicts,” said political observer Alexei Matsevilo.
And political scientist Denis Khlentsev and completely calls the Minsk summit "the triumph of Belarusian diplomacy and the personal political triumph of Alexander Lukashenko," since now Belarus can no longer be considered a rogue country. “She becomes an intermediary in the settlement of a global dispute and increases her status as an international player. Now for the United States and the EU to talk with Minsk as before, will not be from hand,” the expert says.
In the European Union, we add, they tried to cool the optimistic mood of Minsk. “In Minsk, not bilateral relations of the EU and Belarus will be discussed,” said the official representative of Katherine Ashton Maya Kotsyanchich, recalling that the intermediary mission of Lukashenko did not change the EU position to the Belarusian authorities.
Nevertheless, writes DW-World , the "last dictator of Europe" will clearly be at the upcoming event in the spotlight. The German publication lists fresh examples of the demonstrative friendship of Kyiv and Minsk, which are neither interfere with the EU sanctions against Belarus, nor the allies of this country with Russia.
"Lukashenko is interested in good relations with neighbors in the region, especially taking into account the fact that he cannot have good relations with the West, primarily with the European Union. For all the loyalty to Moscow, Lukashenko needs the opportunity to limit Russian influence," believes Alexander Brakel, the head of the Belarusian representative office of the German Fund named after Adenauer.
The disruption of negotiations threatens the resumption of the cold and the beginning of a real war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation
Former British Foreign Minister David Owen in an article in The Guardian expresses confidence that the United States and the European Union did everything possible, convincing Petro Poroshenko of the need to constructively negotiate. At the same time, Putin’s position remains, in his opinion, unclear.
The British diplomat, who participated in peace negotiations in the former Yugoslavia from the EU, notes four main issues that are clearly impossible to resolve in the framework of one meeting. This is this or that form of autonomy for Eastern Ukraine; confirmation of international agreements on air transportation in Russia, Ukraine and Crimea; Issues regarding transit gas pipelines and, finally, the international status of Crimea. Owen believes that for the latter time has not yet come, but negotiations can go towards the rental of the Peninsula by Russia by analogy with the US-Cuban agreement on Guantanamo.
If the agreements are not reached, the diplomat warns, then there is a danger of not only the resumption of the Cold War, but also the more serious danger of a real war between Ukraine and Russia. “Putin is the only person who can determine whether an agreement will be reached,” Owen writes, warning that it would be a tremendous mistake to think that Putin came to the summit ready to be in a humiliating position.
At the same time, the article says, the outcome of other international processes depends on the settlement of the Ukrainian question. So, the ex-minister believes, US President Barack Obama needs Putin’s help to convince Prime Minister Iran Nuri Malika and President of Syria Bashar Assad to resign. A detailed translation of this article is published byInopressa .