The first person is ready to save face

Why the West puts pressure on Ukraine

The meeting between Putin and Poroshenko in Minsk (which took place instead of their failed meeting in Berlin) ended in absolute zero. Vladimir Putin said that it is necessary to negotiate peace in Ukraine not with him, but with the DPR and LPR, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced the imminent dispatch of a new humanitarian convoy.

After the fact, the idea of a convoy becomes clear. It did not consist in bringing weapons and soldiers in a “Trojan convoy”, both of which cross the Ukrainian border without hindrance. It consisted primarily in the creation of safe footholds for Russian armored vehicles. A convoy arrives, unloads, sets up a camp, armored vehicles stand nearby, and if the Ukrainians start shooting, a cry is raised: “Kyiv punishers are destroying a humanitarian convoy.”

That is why the Ukrainian authorities did not let the convoy through for so long. For a week he stood at the border, and as a result, the armored vehicles prepared for him crossed the border on their own and were partially destroyed. After that, the enraged Kremlin, just on the eve of the arrival of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Ukraine, increased military pressure, and Russian tanks went into a jamb.

Both these tanks and direct hints from Russian officials openly make it clear to the West: "Make Kyiv cease fire, otherwise we will start a full-scale war." Whether it's a bluff or not, no one knows. The West does not want war and puts pressure on Ukraine to cease fire. It was with this that Angela Merkel went to Kyiv.

The logic here is clear. Humane, democratic and peaceful states live in the West. These states really do not want to do something as a result of an open war: to introduce new sanctions, from which their own economy will suffer, etc. And since they cannot do anything with Putin, they put pressure on Ukraine. They would be extremely comfortable if Ukraine surrendered itself. There would be no war, and the West would have a clear conscience.

Therein lies the comedy of the whole situation. The entire West - not only Europe, but also the United States - is sincerely busy appeasing Putin. And sincerely looking for something that could be given to him so that he saves face. However, it is difficult to give this, since the whole history of Novorossia originated from a distorted picture of the world.

Putin did not have a long-standing plan to create Novorossiya. This is clear from two simple circumstances. First, otherwise he would not have released Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Secondly, otherwise he would have made at least some efforts over the past few years to form a political party on the territory of Novorossiya, which aims to reunite with Russia.

The latter is especially important to note. The Kremlin constantly mistakes special operations for geopolitics, and in these special operations it has reached a high level. For example, he carried out a total penetration of the Ukrainian security forces and military. However, there was not the slightest attempt to create a Novorossiya party in the future Novorossiya.

That is, once again: there was no plan to create Novorossiya. And there was cognitive dissonance. Namely, the Kremlin quite sincerely decided that the Maidan is not a spontaneous uprising of the people, but an insidious sabotage against Russia, staged by the United States.

It's funny to you, but you put yourself in the place of the ruler, who suddenly finds himself the object of special operations by the United States. First, you must answer, otherwise they will be considered a weakling. Secondly, it is clear how to answer. If someone organized the Maidan and does not admit that it is he, then let's organize "Novorossia" and will not admit that it is us!

It is this problem of cognitive dissonance that has been the main driving force behind the conflict so far. Putin is sincerely convinced that he is at war not with Ukraine, but with America. All his recent actions, which seem to be not explained by logic - supplying the separatists with more and more serious types of weapons, including the ill-fated Buk, increasing the supply of weapons after the downed Boeing, the transition to the direct sending of armored vehicles and personnel troops across the border - just and are explained by this conviction that he needs to force the Americans to negotiate with him. Americans, not Ukrainians. And the Ukrainians, as was said in Minsk to Petro Poroshenko, let them negotiate with the LPR and the DPR. Puppets with puppets, and masters with masters.

The fundamental problem is that the US cannot negotiate with Putin to return Ukraine to him because they did not take it. And Putin will never believe that they did not take it, and will do everything to make the overseas bastards understand that he must be taken seriously.

As programmers say in such cases - garbage in, garbage out (garbage at the input - garbage at the output). And in the garbage that is out, we all live. For what in the case of an individual person is considered a mental deviation, in the case of an absolute ruler becomes a world in which his subjects live, and other states are forced to reckon.

Hence the current tactics of the West. She is very simple. If you can't put pressure on Putin, let's put pressure on Ukraine. We will force it to cease fire, refuse to join NATO and the EU and agree to its own dismemberment. After that, the West will be able to subtly hint to Putin that he fulfilled his demand and put the stolen goods back, and honestly explain to his voters that in the West they were ready to defend the values of democracy from the enraged dictator, but the Ukrainians themselves were blown away.