North Atlantic anxiety

Moscow said that she would take measures if NATO begins regular rotations of troops in the NATO participants in the east of Europe

In recent days, NATO makes sharp statements against Moscow for various reasons: in connection with a violation of the Russian transport column borders of Ukraine or the abandonment of Russian paratroopers to the country. And most importantly - in connection with the opening of the "third", after Donetsk and Lugansk, the "front" in the Novoazovsk area , the purpose of which, as Brussels believes, is to tie Russia with a land corridor with the Crimea. Will NATO go further than condemning declarations? And what exactly America and other countries of the North-Atlantic Union can contrast the Kremlin policy?

The concern of NATO, according to a number of commentators, gives rise to the so -called "Putin doctrine" , that is, the Declaration of the President of Russia about the intention to protect the Russian -speaking population in other countries. Together with the right to unilaterally determine when the policy of local authorities threatens the life interests of compatriots. However, as other analysts note, the point here is not just in declarations.

Richard Vaits

“This is a combination of declarations and the real opportunities of Russian intelligence, special forces and the army,” said Richard Vaits, an expert at the Gudzon Institute in an interview with RS. - The essence of the problem, of course, is not in the protection of the Russian -speaking population, but in Putin’s desire to restore, where this is favored by the situation, the dominant influence of Russia on the former Soviet republics, to force them to respect the desire of Moscow. And for this he may have enough resources. This is precisely the challenge that NATO encountered. Given, however, the whole complex of Russia's capabilities compared to the West, I do not think that Putin risks going further, say, an intervention in the Baltic countries, whatever declarations that sometimes are distributed in the Stubrevsky circles about the full -scale restoration of the USSR within all its borders. The conjuncture in Europe today is not such that Putin could realistically count on more, for example, to satisfy Russia's old desire to split NATO in order to push the United States to leave the continent. Weaken NATO - yes, to prevent NATO approaching to Ukraine or Moldova - yes. At the same time, in Europe today there are no analogues of such sympathizers of Moscow as Shreder or Berlusconi, the alliance does not tear up violent disputes like those preceded by the second war against Iraq.

According to a former US representative at NATO Kurt Walker , a complex dilemma is facing the Western defense block. "On the one hand, to demonstrate such a force to repel from Moscow to encroach on the independence of its former satellites in Europe, and on the other, not to provoke it with excessively aggressive steps to new territorial seizures." If Moscow did not have territorial ambitions initially, would a walker begin to warn the West from unintentional provocations?

“Putin showed himself a good tactician,” Richard Vaits replies. - To achieve his goals, I believe, he will use such a set of means that his opponent in the West will not be able to automatically qualify as a large open aggression. What is the only one he is designed to reflect by all means according to the collective defense agreement. Walker, in other words, has in mind the type of aggression to which Putin, apparently, is not going to resort. The expansion disguised is his trump card.

Hidden expansion, the expert of the Gudzon Institute believes, works well against countries such as Ukraine, weakened both militarily and political - to top it off to everything, the president recently discharged the parliament, which are vulnerable to Russia, primarily in the field of energy, which will become especially relevant before the onset of winter. Are other potential objects of Russia's claims equally vulnerable?

“The Baltic countries are a completely different case,” continues Richard Vaits. - But Moldova with the problem of Transnistria - yes. Armenia, Azerbaijan - perhaps too. With the country of the Baltic and Poland, as well as, probably, Romania, the NATO leadership has now announced a significant increase in the number and equipment of their rapid response forces. Not ordinary divisions, namely these forces capable of rapidly deployment, should remind Russia that the West has the means to answer its hidden encroachments without the need to launch a bulky response mechanism in this scenario, designed for the main scenario - open and full -fledged aggression. I hope that these forces will come in handy as a potential factor in Russian deterrence in those countries that are NATO partners, not directly its members, and the destruction of the independence of which NATO would want to prevent.

On Tuesday, information appeared that the Russian infantry, with the support of tanks, artillery and air defense systems, crossed the border of Ukraine to the area not affected by the battles near Novoazovsk. According to NATO Secretary General Anders Fogg Rasmussen, in response to the direct aggression of Russia, the Alliance will first place military units of Western European countries at new bases in Eastern Europe. "The location of these units will also be sent in advance combat equipment and a large number of ammunition in order to make the presence of NATO in the east more visible and tangible," FAG Rasmussen emphasized. According to him, the mentioned steps do not violate existing agreements with Russia, since these bases are not created on an ongoing basis, but only so far there is a "need".

The innovations that the Secretary General are talking about will, apparently, are officially approved by the alliance at the upcoming Summit in Wales next week. On the eve of the Estonia summit, US President Barack Obama will visit. According to the wording of the Eurasia Group Foundation Ian Bremer, "there is no return to the status quo that existed before the annexation of Crimea." And the former American ambassador in Ukraine John Hyrsbst offers NATO to make a symbolic but important gesture and publicly question the clause of the fundamental act of NATO and Russia from 1997 that the parties no longer consider each other as a source of military danger.

In October, large -scale NATO exercises in Poland are scheduled. The deepening of partnerships with the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty announced these days Finland and Sweden.

Nevertheless, not everything is okay in relations between different members of the Western Defense Bloc, another interlocutor of Radio Liberty, an employee of the Center for Strategic and International Research Edward Luttvak notes:

Edward Luttvak

-Chancellor Merkel held a frank telephone conversation with Putin on Wednesday and asked him to explain about the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine. For its part, the Obama administration did not go further than Putin’s accusations of misinformation of the West regarding its intentions. Suzan Rice Assistant Assistant Reis only added to this that the opening of the Third Front at Novoazovsk is a "significant escalation of the conflict." There is no NATO coordinated answer, there are only the actions of individual participants, primarily Germany. But she does not want to impose new sanctions against Russia, while the level of aggressiveness of Moscow remains within the current limits. Berlin also opens against the constant deployment of NATO parts in the East, and as a palliative agrees only with the idea of strengthening the forces of quick response. There are no guarantees that NATO will work as an union, even if Washington wants it, since it is clear that without Washington’s leadership he will definitely not work. Since the current American administration is unlikely to take on the initiative to offer Kyiv a membership in NATO, we can exclude this option. In the meantime, Ukraine is outside NATO, no direct intercession of the West shines it.

-How much, in your opinion, is it important for the West what is happening today in Ukraine? What are the bets in this game for Washington and Brussels?

- After Russia, having subtly manifested, annexed Crimea, the Western capitals decided - secretly, of course, - that Putin will stop in the Crimea, because this is a very large prize that he can boast of his people for a long time. Say, let it be so, we will not try to win from him Crimea. It was a very large miscalculation. What are its deep causes, I do not know. It is not clear to me why Putin’s attention after Crimea to southeastern Ukraine found the West by surprise, because talking about Novorossia has been conducted by the Kremlin ideologists for a long time. What happened in the west after Crimea,

Nobody is able to pull Putin either inside the country or abroad. And it is very dangerous

It can be called, having borrowed the term clause, "weakening of energy." Be that as it may, what Putin does through counter -sanctions - I mean the breakdown of ancient and deep contacts with Germany, Italy and other countries - causes more anxiety. And, surrounded by Putin, there are no people who could stop him. What is strange, because the price of protest today is not at all the same that could be under Stalin. The Deputy Minister of Economic Development Belyakov expressed disagreement with the government, although on a secondary issue, was fired, but symptomatic that no one supported him, because it was no secret that the Kremlin’s course worsens the economic situation of Russia daily. It turns out that no one is able to pull Putin either inside the country or abroad. And it is very dangerous.