Poker for one

Who and how in Russia makes decisions that determine the fate of a 140 millionth country

Photo: Victor Velikzhanin/ITAR-TASS

In early August, President Vladimir Putin forbade the import of a number of European and American food products into Russia: this is how the country responded to the third wave of Western sanctions against domestic banks and financial institutions. While politicians and experts in Brussels and Washington calculated losses from the embargo, Russian officials have already drilled holes in a new, with a needle, iron curtain. It turned out that, making a decision on the ban on foreign food, they forgot about people suffering from lactose intolerance, some forms of diabetes, rare allergies and other diseases: in Russia there are no products that they can safely consume. But in the turmoil of imminent decisions about these people were simply forgotten. Two weeks after signing the loud decree on the embargo, the government clarified its own decree on the prohibited food adopted at the command of the president. Blagectous milk was again allowed to import into the country, and at the same time liquidated the channel for the supply of European fish to Russia bypassing the ban. In early August, no one realized that the Norwegian salmon could get to Moscow and St. Petersburg, contrary to Putin’s team, if he brought him to the country alive, and not stripped.

The end of the Politburo 2.0

A story about lactic milk and living salmon is a vivid example of how decisions of state importance are made today in Russia. Before the beginning of the new Cold War, it was believed that the country was ruled by Politburo 2.0, this concept was developed by political scientist Yevgeny Mintchenko. Under the Politburo, he meant several leading bureaucratic clans, which Putin skillfully quarreled, then Mirril, then quarreled again, retaining the function of the referee. This “Politburo” or “large government” included several Kremlin employees, several deputy prime ministers, entrepreneurs and hospitalists close to Putin, some of the security forces: they slowly, behind closed doors, developed versions of decisions on the most important issues of the country's development, and Putin then stood on someone else's side, or forced to come to a compromise. But the Politburo, like much more, did not survive the accession to Russia of Crimea and the outbreak of war in Ukraine. There is no mention of any Politburo today. Putin makes all decisions on domestic and foreign policy, economics and so on, they say sources himself, and often does it purely situationally, in the mode of a lightning -fast reaction to the actions of the West. There is no strategy or even tactics in this, this is a “poker for one,” says the Kremlin employee.

FSB here is power

The closest to the president are the head of the FSB, Alexander Bortnikov, five of his deputies and some departments, says a former senior government employee. Putin meets with them almost every day, sometimes the head of the Kremlin administration Sergei Ivanov is called for meetings, sometimes not. Ivanov turned into Mr. “Yes”, describes the role of the head of the administration of another official from the White House, he does not affect anything, but always agrees with the president. Another insider, to the question of the role of the head of the apapate of the President in decision -making, connects the large and decrease finger - “zero”. The Chekists, so the New Times interlocutor calls the FSB officers admitted to the body of the president, are indeed almost omnipotent and have been preparing the most important political decisions almost solely since spring.

The role of the FSB in New Russia is evidenced by the story of how the government adopted Decree No. 758 of July 31, 2014, which regulates the rules for connecting citizens to public data transfer networks. To connect to the Wi-Fi public network, you need to show a passport, the FSB has been lobbying since 2011. In July of this year, all the papers were ready and ended up on the table by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who oversees the government in the government. Dvorkovich refused to visited them, told the Ministry of Communications and went on vacation for several days. While he was on vacation, the decision without his visa was signed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, says an official from this department, because the Kremlin demanded this from the government, who, in turn, did this at the request of the FSB. Having returned to Moscow, Dvorkovich intervened and corrected the situation a little: now, to connect to the Wi-Fi network, you can not show the passport, but indicate the mobile phone number or register on the network using the public services website. (In the same stylistics, a decision was made to freeze the NPF funds, which all ministers of the Economic Bloc spoke in conjunction: the prime minister signed the corresponding decision when the ministers and their deputies were on vacation (see interviews of the former Deputy Minister of Economic Development Sergey Belyakov in The New Times No. 26 of 08.25.2014).

"

There is no mention of any Politburo today. Putin all decisions on domestic and foreign policy, economics, and so on, accepts himself

"

The FSB is not engaged in development, she reacts to threats, as she understands them, an employee of the government explains the problem. The government, industry departments have been weighing the “pros” and “against” one or another decision for years, and the FSB now simply “sells” the president threat, and he instantly makes the decision she achieves. The FSB, for example, has long been unhappy that Russians have been using foreign postal services, like Gail of Google. The FSB does not always manage to read their correspondence, the company reacts nervously to its requests and almost always refuses access to the Russian mailboxes. At the end of July, at the insistence of colleagues from Lubyanka, Putin signed a law on personal data, which requires all who processes the personal data of Russians to do this exclusively within Russia. There was a business, the Internet community, part of the government officials, even the State Bank, who are sometimes cheaper to use the existing foreign infrastructure for data storage than to build their own. But the decision was made almost without discussion, from January 1, 2016, all the data of Russians can only be stored in Russia, this may lead to the fact that it will become impossible to register a mailbox for Russians if Google refuses to build server within the country.

Another example of the sharply increased influence of the FSB is relations with Ukraine. In June, several reputable retired politicians from Europe offered Moscow and Kyiv their services. They proposed with the help of "shuttle diplomacy" to first achieve a long -term truce, and then completely end the war. At first, their offer was considered in Moscow seriously, one of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that the meetings of the former president of Kuchma and representatives of the self -proclaimed DPR and LPR were a cover for real negotiation work, which was carried out by several former senior European officials. But the FSB and foreign intelligence, according to the Midowsk, convinced Putin that the mission of Europeans is a provocation, an attempt to force Russia to give out its intentions regarding the future of Ukraine and its eastern lands. Putin immediately abandoned the services of European patriarchs, strongly offended them with this. They, according to the Russian official, actually acted without any second thought, being convinced that the conflict between Russia and the EU, which would gain momentum due to war in Ukraine, is the path to both sides. By the way, employees of the Russian Foreign Ministry and even Minister of Lavrov recognized the mission of European “patriarchs” almost the last: after the FSB, and after Putin’s subordinates in the Kremlin, says the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The ruler without a government

After the outbreak of the new Cold War, the government, in fact, turned into a place where decisions made in the Kremlin or Novo-Ogarevo were stamped, several officials from the White House apparatus and key departments say. The sanctions of Russia were arguing against Western foods since June, but even high office staff found out that this decision was made, post -fact, a few hours before it was publicly announced. There were no certificates from the Ministry of Agriculture in the government’s apparatus before the embargo, says his employee. The certificate that formed the same decree of the government, in which they forgot about lactic milk and living salmon, wrote to the Ministry of Economic Development, he says, and then sent it to two addresses: to the prime minister Medvedev and to the apparatus of the Security Council. Putin was simply given not quite correct numbers, an official from the Ministry of Agriculture is being excited, representatives of his department from spring said that the embargo can be entered for only several years, and not for a year. If you enter it for a year, the country will begin an acute shortage of milk and dairy products, but the business will not invest in expanding production, because it will not be possible to return it in a year.

But no one began to listen to specialists. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, as another employee of the apparatus says, found out about the embargo a few hours before the decision was voiced, like the agricultural curator, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. After Putin signed a decree, and the government approved a hastily prepared resolution, the draft of which was written in the apparatus of the Security Council, both deputy prime ministers began to break the largest Russian suppliers of European products, but officials refused to talk with them for a long time because they did not understand what to say. Shuvalov was able to hold a meeting with suppliers only on the third day after the embargo was introduced, and did it at his own peril and risk, almost contrary to the requests of some Kremlin officials.

The government, sectoral departments have been weighing the “pros” and “against” one or another decision for years, and the FSB now simply “sells” the president threat

"

The headquarters of the fight against the West should not be sought here, but in the Kremlin, a employee of the Ministry of Industry and Trade is joking in a conversation with The New Times, where, according to rumors, they form new lists of European goods prohibited for import into Russia. “We do not prepare such lists and do not at all engage in oncoming sanctions,” he says. Everything happens the other way around. First, they give us a team from the Kremlin that it is, perhaps, they will ban, and then we calculate what it will lead to. The Ministry of Economic Development of the lists also does not write, says an employee of this ministry. Inquiries on the embargo for food were written in the office of Minister Ulyukaev, who at that time almost every minute called from the Kremlin. All decisions are made in the office of Putin, they are reactive in nature, that is, they are accepted in reaction mode, the former high -ranking official describes the new model of the country's management, those whom Putin personally trusts them participate in their adoption. Among those to whom Putin trusts personally, he calls the same Bortnikov, ex-chairman of the board of directors of the Russian Bank "Russia" Yuri Kovalchuk and Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu. Plus - nameless analysts from the FSB. Deputy Prime Ministers or even Prime Minister Medvedev, according to the interlocutor of The New Times, is not in this narrow circle. True, Putin is still ready to listen to those who are ready to tell him about the risks associated with the decisions he made. For example, they say that last week the president adopted the head of Sberbank German Gref, who outlined the consequences of Western sanctions against the largest banks in the country. “Pay attention, Putin does not dismiss and do not punish him unpleasant things,” says an insider.

The burden of sovereignty

Foreign policy has always been a personal file of President Putin, the Kremlin employee explains the causes of the current management collapse. Now everything has become a foreign policy, which means that everything has become his personal affair. Previously, Putin delegated, let something on his own or waited until the players agree among themselves. Now - no. He makes decisions, after listening to those whom he trusts, and when someone leaves confidence, the decisions are immediately canceled and some others are made that new proxies suggest. In the evening, a meeting can be held, one will agree on it, and by the middle of the next day it turns out that at night Putin had another meeting or an informal meeting at which everyone was cut. It is impossible to find out who was at the meeting or why the decision changed: since spring, these questions have become indecent to ask.

Officials are smarter, like the same head of the administration, Sergei Ivanov, are simply eliminated and only retrane by what the president tells them

"

Officials are more smart, like the same head of the administration, Sergei Ivanov, are simply eliminated and only retrane by what the president tells them, says one of the subordinates of Ivanov. They already realized that Putin’s opinion is slightly interested in, so they simply retain their positions, do not argue and always take under the visor. The ministers had the habit of arguing, explains the absence of representatives of the government in the near Putin's Circle Employee of his apparatus. They were put out the door in the summer, and they reconciled with this. Someone is quietly preparing to resign, someone adapts to a new reality and is looking for patrons in the FSB, Security Council or among Putin's personal friends. This system will not work for a long time, several officials from the White House are sure. In this mode, you can play at the Ping Pong of sanctions with the West, although it is dangerous, but it is impossible to accept the budget or plan anything more than six months or a year, they are sure. Or Putin will soon change the team and instructive the changed role of the security forces and his friends, entrusting them with the management of the country, or there will be some large emergency, because professionals who can warn the president about him simply will not be nearby.