War with Ukraine

Dmitry Butrin

Economist, journalist

Actually, the war began in February after the authorities of certain regions of the Russian Federation, according to indirect data, not only supported the formation of Paramilite (such a term will be more accurately of all Russian analogues) for Crimea and Eastern Ukraine on their territory, but also began to promote them to the regions of Ukraine with the prevailing Russian -speaking population. Presumably, the regions where these Paramilitary groups were formed -Krasnodar Territory, Rostov, Voronezh and Belgorod Regions. Accordingly, the start - early February 2014, a few weeks before the decision of the Russian Federation on the accession of Crimea.

Based on this, the war will end, I believe, with its achievement in the elites of the Russian Federation, their domestic political goals - what they are, it is difficult for me to judge. But I do not think that personnel.

Sergey Medvedev

Professor of the Department of Comparative Political Science of the Faculty of Applied Political Science NIU High

From a legal point of view, the war with Ukraine began on March 18, 2014, when an agreement was signed on the entry of the Republic of Crimea (at that time of the sovereign territory of Ukraine) to the Russian Federation. This happened almost exactly on the anniversary of the referendum on the preservation of the USSR on March 17, 1991

Most likely, the war will end in winter according to the Georgian scenario: the actual rejection from Ukraine of two territories, one of which (Crimea) has become part of Russia, and the other (Donbass) will be a puppet state such as Transnistria and Abkhazia. This will happen with the silent consent of the West, although Russia will remain under the sanctions and in the position of an outcast in Europe and partly in the world. At the same time, Moscow is unlikely to receive a blocking package in the policy of Ukraine, which will continue its slow drift to the west. Dreams of the Eurasian Union can be considered buried. After Moldova and Georgia, the next neocolonial adventure of Russia will end with dubious territorial acquisitions, the alienation of neighbors and semi -isolation in the world. From the point of view of long -term national interests, this will be another foreign policy.

I understand how it sounds now, but for Russia the war in Ukraine has not yet begun.

Oleg Kashin

journalist

I remember how on March 1 in a hotel in the Crimea I watched a series on TV, and on top of the series in Ukrainian it was written that Russia “bore” the war to Ukraine. If only one side for almost six months is sure that the war is on - is it war or not? In the column about the Pskov paratroopers, I wrote that the Ukrainian would not understand me, for the Ukrainian audience there is no sensation in the fact that the current Russian military appeared among the people who are boring on their territory. For me, this is precisely a sensation, before the story with the paratroopers, I have not seen a single serious evidence of the participation of the Russian army in the Ukrainian war. Is it possible to say that the war for Russia began at least now? No, you can't. These days everyone recalls the November assault on Grozny in 1994, very similar to what is happening in the Donetsk region. That assault was November 26. The war in Chechnya, as we recall, began on December 11th.

I understand how it sounds now, but for Russia the war in Ukraine has not yet begun.

The war should end to the cold, otherwise it will be difficult to explain to the high warring parties how they manage to sell the enemy (Russia) or buy gas from the enemy (Ukraine). The only permissible end of the war is the victory of Kyiv, but since Kyiv, as it has long been obvious, cannot win, the Russian side will somehow have to help him, while maintaining the face from the intra-Russian point of view, so Kyiv’s victory will be presented as a result of a compromise, which both sides went. Actually, Putin’s plan, most likely, is precisely the purpose of this goal.

Semyon Faybisovich

artist

It seems that the war began on the Maidan with the execution of peaceful protesters. Further - with the annexation of Crimea and the phased escalation of hostilities in the Donbass - it became only more obvious, “manifested”: Russia, which initiated it, gradually “showed the face”. After all, the peculiarity of this war is a reluctance to call a spade a spade that is total in nature: to take at least a “polite green men”, even a “humanitarian convoy”, at least a “accidental” hit of the territory of Ukraine of Russian paratroopers ... This is an unexpected (random) annexation of agression-cooperation. It is unfortunate that Western leaders are gradually drawn into the game according to Putin’s rules - they actually follow him, also not calling everything with their names and leaving them the opportunity to evade adequate response to reality and the very fact of this “strange aggression”, which is obviously only a pen of the pen. It will burn out the West here - and it will move on to this very West. However, in recent days she still completely opened the face, invading Ukraine with her regular parts, but at the same time continues to assure the world that there was no such face. Involuntarily, the image of a black oval comes to mind - a black hole in the place of the face of Russia.

I'm not a fortuneteller. And no one, I think, now knows how it will end. Just everyone gives what is desired for what will be held. The only thing is that I’m used to trusting my intuition, and it tells me that this will not end in anything good.

The war will end with the achievement of its internal political goals in the elites of the Russian Federation.

Olga Romanova

journalist, television and radio host, civil activist

Of course, the war began with the annexation of Crimea. Apparently, the main date should still be considered March 16, 2014.

One way or another, but the conflict with Ukraine - and most importantly, with Ukrainians - will last for many more years. The situation cannot be compared with Chechnya, where, of course, the world - but for the time being. Rather, with Afghanistan, where we will never be perceived good -neighborly. But Afghanistan is also another matter: other countries entered there, another war began, without us, besides, we have never been related peoples with a common history and culture. So with Ukraine - this is a long time. Neither “we” nor “they” will not forget and will not forgive. Although it is still very difficult to talk about us “we” and “they”.

Maxim Osipov

doctor, writer

The war began in March when the entry of troops was approved. Immediately after this event, on my Facebook page, I made the following record: “As if-a heart attack, the patient lies on a bunk attached to the monitor, and listens to how the heart beats, hoping in a monotonous squeak to recognize something. There are only thoughts about unconnected household things and about the physical well -being of loved ones. It is impossible to read, nor write, nor to listen to your favorite music - not because it hurts, but because books, music belong to the past, but there is no real one. There is only a squeak of the monitor, the neighbors in the ward, as confused as you yourself, and the understanding that life will probably resume, but will be different. Which?"

The war has been present in everyday life since then-as the death of the father, as a mother’s disease, as something very important and sad. As an irreversible knowledge of the people whom I fly, among whom life passes. War is not a reason to stop shaving or, for example, go to the theater. But to be now “outside the politics” is as impossible as to remain “outside the obstetrics” when his wife gives birth, or “outside oncology”, when Poltelo ate cancer.

Now about how the war will end. Of course, the world, but on what conditions? Will our country break up or its boundaries will expand? Don't know. What will happen to Ukraine? Not either. The movement of peoples, money, military equipment greatly go beyond the boundaries of my understanding. I will say that I personally worry, because the war is directed, including against me, personally. Against the Russia that I love against people close to me - “herbivores”, those “who has a green grave, red breath, flexible laughter”. It is not only about the intelligentsia, such people are among all layers.

To be now “out of politics” is as impossible as to remain “outside the obstetrics” when his wife gives birth, or “outside oncology”, when he ate a cancer.

I have seen the inevitability of war or a big crisis for a long time, but I hoped that it would cost a crisis. For many years, our society lives in a state of illness, in a pathological situation. Laws do not work, public institutions have been exterminated, the truth is trampled. And at the same time lives, in general, well - satisfying, not overloaded with work, provided financially as never before in Russian history. There is no paradox: an oncological patient can feel good, and a healthy person can constantly be inquired. But the disease leads to disability (loss of functions) or to death. When it comes to an individual person, you have to resort to surgical surgery, irradiation or chemotherapy, my health worsens from all this, but there is a chance to survive. When a whole society falls into the pathological situation, the case often ends with the war.

So far, evil wins on all fronts. Imagination draws a variety of options for defeat, including conformism (so familiar to those who lived in the USSR) and emigration. It remains to remember: be sure. "In the world you will have sorrow, but be a lawsuit: I defeated the world." These gospel words contain great power, we do not have another.

Fedor Lyudogovsky

priest

From the point of view of Christian doctrine, the source of every war (like any murder and in general sin) lies in opposing a person to God. This began in Eden by a violation of an insignificant commandment, and very soon continued to fratricide.

And now we are also observing the fratricidal war. Here is the internal Ukrainian strife, initiated and constantly heated by external forces, and-what is even worse and gage-the aggression of my country against her closest neighbor, a twin brother. When this war began - I definitely do not know; I think this question will be better and more fully answered by experts.

But there is another war. She goes inside my country. When it began, I also do not know for sure, but in a sense it is a continuation of the civil war almost a hundred years ago. On one side is a state repressive machine and, apparently, most of the population. And it is easy to see that aggression, ignorance and stupid vanity are constantly growing. On the other side - people who, out of the last forces try not to succumb to propaganda, seek to maintain the independence of thinking, preserve themselves. In the civil war, the Bolsheviks won, who then raised the Cheka. Modern Chekists and former communists again push the country to war - by no means cold. But the war can bring nothing, except for destruction, grief and pain. Nevertheless, this is our very likely future.

On the one hand, the duration of the war will depend on the totality of economic, political and military factors. On the other hand, one cannot but take into account living people - both in Russia and in Ukraine. Many do not want war; And to someone, the war had already come to the house without asking-in the form of killed or wounded sons, brothers, husbands. And now, people on both sides of the border begin to interact in order to stop this madness as soon as possible. It is possible that it is the anti -war movement in both countries that will make it difficult to further spite the foci of war in Ukraine.

If this optimistic scenario does not come true, then the war will take a lingering character - and then not only Ukraine, but Russia will feel (and already feels) all the destructive consequences of the adventure taken.

Recently, I am more and more convinced that Moscow 2042 Voinovich is not a caricature and not fantasy, but our very likely near future.

Recorded by Julia Ryzhenko