Lame with a human face

The long absence of the leader of the DPRK Kim Jong -un of the DPRK gave rise to a mass of hypotheses - which so far remain nothing more than conjecture

The leader of North Korea Kim Jong -un does not appear in public since September 3; On that day, he was seen limping at a concert with his wife Lee Huj . Among other things, the leader, who is either 30 or 32 years old (no one knows for sure), missed an important meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly. Is he seriously ill? Or is it on vacation? It is also impossible to exclude the fact that he fell victim to intrigues in the highest echelons of power in Pyongyang. However, there is not a single firm fact that reinforces these hypotheses.

The media of South Korea has already reported several times that, according to their data, the DPRK very seriously ill, after the injury, transferred the operation immediately on the dwah legs and is difficult to recover. Journalists believe that Kim Jong -un has a whole bouquet of diagnoses, which mainly resulted in the corresponding lifestyle, which he led from a very young age, including diabetes, obesity and gout. At the same time, the complete absence of the head of state in public fuels rumors about the coup, which could happen a year ago and which no one still suspects in the outside world.

Kim Jong -un and Lee Sol Zhu

"Higher officials of the Central Committee of the Korea Labor Party ceased to obey Kim Jong -un and lead the country on his behalf, while the North Korean leader actually plays the role of a forced puppet." It can be approximately so briefly formulated the essence of the statements of several North Korean defectors, which sounded this September at one of the press conferences in the West. Among them are a former senior officer of the counterintelligence department of the Ministry of Public Security ( Sahweh Anjin Son ) DPRK, who was at the same time known in Pyongyan by the playwright and official of the Ministry of Culture, Chen Chin Son . According to him, at the same time, the Central Committee of the North Korean Communist Party contains a fierce struggle for power between the two fractions, which can be extremely conditionally called "conservatives", that is, supporters of preserving the absolutely totalitarian system, and "liberals" striving to slightly reform the country's policy and economics - but exclusively for personal interests and enrichment.

The fact that Kim Jong -un "disappeared" was widely notified by the world of the Western funds of information. The media in the DPRK about the situation, to put it mildly, do not apply. Therefore, Reuters , which does not even have its bureau in Pyongyang, deserves praise at least for the discovery of information about Kim Jong -un on the North Korean television, albeit very scarce: "Our socialism owes its wealth and prosperity to the tireless efforts of our marshal, which continues to cover the path of our people, like a stuck fire, despite the unwell." The New York Times , reprinting this information, translated keywords a little differently: "Despite the fact that he feels unimportant." On the television cord accompanying the text, you can see how a young and heavy leader moves, limping on both legs. “It doesn’t matter - the concept of extensible,” American journalists noted. It can be a lethal disease, or maybe a chronic, if not at all a slight cold?

Director of the Research Center of East Asia at Standford University Daniel Snyder emphasizes that the West swallows this kind of information, since it gives reason to construct the most fantastic interpretations of events in the country, which in reality is very little known:

Daniel Snyder

- The closeness and mystery of North Korea fascinate us and directed into the area of guesses that are not supported by facts. Nevertheless, I will allow myself two cautious remarks. First: the regime in Pyongyang today feels a kind of need to share at least minimal information about itself with its own population and the outside world. About the personal life of father or grandfather Kim Jong -un state television did not stutter. Not later than two years ago, the first secretary disappeared from the public field for the whole two weeks - and nothing. No explanation. Propaganda reproaches the opponents of the DPRK, not stinging on the most exquisite flowering epithets, and when it turns his eyes inside, it becomes laconic, dull and gray. Therefore, the recent signs of publicity are so noteworthy, for example, an official message about an unsuccessful missile test. Or the open recognition of huge casualties and destruction during the last floods. Plus, public calls for help addressed to the world community.

The regime in Pyongyang today feels a certain need to share with their own population and the outside world at least minimal information about itself

I admit that it is difficult for the authorities to maintain the same total control over information as before. This is only a minimum consequence of the development of the Internet, and in much larger - the distribution of mobile phones and trips of the Northern Koreans to South Korea or China. This is the first. And the second - even a small opening of North Korea will be accompanied, we believe, by strengthening repression against persons suspected not only in full -fledged dissent, but in a weak attempt on dissent. Today we do not see any signs of threats to the power of the Kim family.

The DPRK leadership, Uncle Kim Jong -un, Chan Song Thek really paid his life for intrigues against the leader , but the fact that he was fed alive hungry dogs is a misinformation, Daniel Snyder is sure. As well as the fact that Kim Jong -un executed his allegedly former mistress, singer Hyun, sleep , for the spread of pornography. This misinformation, according to the expert at Stanford University, is supposedly made in Seoul or Tokyo, and most likely in Pyongyang itself. The reputation of ferocity, bloodthirstiness and inexhaustibility is needed by the regime to repel the world community to intervene in its affairs, on the one hand. On the other hand, to make the community more flexible in the sense of satisfying the requirements of the regime: who is the hunt to provoke the anger of despotistical barbaric rulers?

Kim Jong -un on military exercises. The date of shooting is unknown

- While Kim Jong -un, it was supposedly not healthy, he made inspection trips to military and civilian facilities reported by the North Korean media. Although without a picture. I just want to emphasize that opening the country is quite compatible with the strengthening of the personal authority of the leader. Or his clan. As a small truth in one can easily be combined with a pile of lies in everything else. It is true that the last six months in the DPRK there is a very active personnel rotation in the highest echelons, but the rearrangements of staff do not mean changes in the general course and do not portend political instability. This all fits into the "general line". Maybe I'm mistaken, but I don’t see anything unusual here, ”says Daniel Snyder .

For three years at the top of the authorities, Kim Jong -un significantly gained in weight. Several times he seemed to be at all standing at all, and he was transported in a cart with a motor used when playing golf. This is a gout or diabetes against the background of hypertension, following journalists, one group of Western analysts and part -time nephrologists who found a genetic predisposition to uric acid salts in the family of Kim. The British Daily Mirror told the world that Kim was addicted to the "bourgeois" cheese of the Emmental and therefore unusually heard, which is why it falls on the leg. The newspaper approvingly quotes Professor University Lids on the fact that Kim is not at all sick, but simply experiences discomfort from obesity and lack of physical exertion. Another British edition, the Daily Telegraph, cites the opinion of his expert, a university professor in Tokyo, who claims that if Kim is sick, then only politically, implying a threat to his power from disloyal clans in the command of the Armed Forces. Disappointed, in particular, by the fact that the leader removed them from state pie and official benefits in the form of access to hard currency sources.

Kim Jong -un inspects the sanatorium for scientists. The date of shooting is unknown

“How accurate were all the past forecasts of Western analysts and special services about North Korea?” Daniel Snyder asks the question and answers him:

- I do not observe special grounds for scientific pride here. As in the case of the Soviet Union-when experts in the 50-60-70s of the XX century vied with vying predicted an imminent collapse of the system, they were mistaken. And the USSR collapsed when at first glance little foreshadowed its end. The expert community spoke about the DPRK collapse in the 90s amid mass hunger , which claimed at least hundreds of thousands of lives. And nothing - the regime has survived. Just as ten years later, the leadership "raised" the eternal crisis of totalitarian systems associated with the change of power. I’m afraid that our experts learned these lessons on an excess scale, and now they will not scream the “wolf, wolf!”, Even facing the nose of the nose system -destructive crisis. To date, they are convinced that the regime, extorting a handout from the West, Japan and South Korea, will be able to indefinitely buy the loyalty of elites. I personally have not been fond of forecasts for a long time, but I read good analytics. Which ignores the dynastic exotic of the North Korean despotism, instead of this, attention on its structural relationship with the collapsed administrative-command systems in Europe. In this regard, I strongly recommend to your listeners the work of their compatriot, an excellent specialist in North Korea Andrei Lankov . He is an analyst, not oracle.

Andrey Lankov

Andrei Lankov well understands how the formation of political and social forces took place, which, in addition to their conscious will, finally ruined totalitarianism in Eastern Europe. And, maybe, he sees in weak signs of publicity the origin of these trends in the DPRK, says Daniel Snyder . He also notes the features of the work of Western information agencies, covering life in the super -covered "country of Chuchhe":

- Of the Western news agencies, the government allowed only the Associated Press to the country. And its employees, of course, are far from free in their professional activities. The same is true in relation to Russian and Chinese journalists accredited in Pyongyang. At the same time, I know, the authorities give visas to Washington Post correspondents for lighting some one-time events. Of course, they are assigned to accompanying people. But this is another, albeit tiny, but a gap in the system. Along with the fact that the North Koreans, traveling to China or to meetings with relatives in the south, learn something about the outside world, before they closed. Corrosion of dogmatic consciousness is a very slow process.

It is symptomatic that rumors that all men in the DPRK are ordered to cut themselves under the leader - sides and nape to zero and short hair on the crown, were not confirmed

If our journalists, roughly speaking, did not fall on the staged scenes arranged by North Korean PR technologists, then all of them, walking in the center of Pyongyang, drew attention to individual passers-by, very fashionably dressed. Especially women. High -heeled shoes with sparkles; Bright, tight -fitting dresses. Hairstyles and makeup fit. A striking contrast with typical rubber boots in the country and utilitarian shoes on the platform. There were tight shirts with elastic inserts on their backs and with standing collars. It is symptomatic that rumors that all men in the DPRK are ordered to cut themselves under the leader - sides and nape to zero and short hair on the crown, were not confirmed. By the way, the main legislator of the fashion in the country is the first lady Lee Sol Zhu. She wears a short haircut and black dresses from Chanel. I can’t draw far -end conclusions from this information obtained by our journalists, but that today we know about North Korea more than before, there is their merit, ”says Daniel Snider, director of the research center of East Asian countries at Standford University.

North Korean Girls-Military Girls. June 2014

This year, for the first time in fifteen years, at the opening of the session of the UN General Assembly, the messenger of North Korea, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lee Su Yong, performed. The Security Council, who punished Pyongyang with gesture sanctions for missile-nuclear trials, called the minister "the inspirer of the practice of applying the most egregious double standards: he blinds his eyes at Israeli crimes in gas and allows the United States to bomb Syria with impunity." "Security Council should be in the most radically reformed way, so that he no longer serves the forum for the spread of lies," the chief of North Korean diplomacy insisted. The expert community considers whether it is permissible to draw far -reaching conclusions from the speaker’s words about its true attitude to the main organ of the United Nations.