Goodbye, CIS

From the very beginning, this was not a community, but the organization of consumers of Russian gas

Photo: RIA Novosti

Since the tragic events in Ukraine began, the question increasingly arises, why Ukraine has not yet left the CIS, as Georgia did after the war with Russia? And even after the last October Summit in Minsk, at which Vladimir Putin threatened Moldova with economic problems due to signing an agreement on the Association with the EU, it was generally not clear why the CIS still exists. The last summit and, in general, the last year of the CIS life showed the complete transformation of a communal apartment with decent neighbors into a focus of war with spitting in a pan and a scammers in the corridor. However, in the case of Ukraine - this is no longer communal, but a real war.

The bureaucratic incident is that Ukraine was never a member of the CIS, contrary to universal conviction. Yes, it was her President Leonid Kravchuk, together with Boris Yeltsin and Stanislav Shushkevich, signed an agreement on the creation of the CIS on December 8, 1991 in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha. But then, when almost all the former union republics joined the Commonwealth, Ukraine did not ratify his charter. That is, all this time Ukraine was the founder of the CIS, but formally was not a member of the Commonwealth. So she does not need to go out of nowhere, unlike the same Georgia.

Vladimir Putin said several years ago that the CIS was created for a civilized divorce. It is just not, one of the authors of Belovezhsky agreements Stanislav Shushkevich claims, who invited Kravchuk and Yeltsin to Belovezhskaya Pushch.

“We did not want a divorce. On the contrary, we wanted to maintain existing connections, unity, community as much as possible - and for a long time searched for a suitable form, ”said Stanislav Shushkevich“ New ”. - The union had already died by that time, it remained only to fix it. The confederation was also impossible. And the Commonwealth turned out to be the only possible form of preserving previous ties and relations - with open borders for people, for joint projects, for information. At first, we wanted to call a new form of SSG - the Commonwealth of the sovereign states. But Boris Yeltsin said: “Enough with us this“ SSS ” - and we renamed the sovereign states into independent ones. It was his amendment. By the way, three years ago, the Swedish Foreign Ministry declared the diplomatic correspondence of 1989-1991. So, in this correspondence the CIS was called a masterpiece of diplomacy. "

Be that as it may, but the CIS was doomed from the very beginning. Of course, the three states that signed Belovezh’s agreements did not have complaints about each other and could well afford to be called the Commonwealth. But then, when other former republics of the USSR joined the CIS, it turned out that the two states, signing the protocol to the CIS creation, actually waged a war: Armenia and Azerbaijan fought for Nagornoi Karabakh and at the same time entered into the Commonwealth. So this word itself was filled with meaning for only a few months and only as part of Russia -Ukraine - Belarus.

From the very beginning, Turkmenistan refused to ratify the CIS Charter, and then announced the associated membership. However, it might not have announced-this state not only de jure was not a member of the CIS, but also de facto: Turkmenistan established a visa regime with partners in the Commonwealth, and this is not at all linked to the concept of open boundaries. But the behavior of Turkmenistan is quite within the framework of the logic of the development of the Commonwealth. Rather, what it has turned into.

Even before the Russian-Georgian war, all kinds of trade wars were actively waged between the CIS countries-oil, gas, dairy, meat, chocolate, wine. Rather, Russia waged these wars with separate states. Moldova’s trade war with Kyrgyzstan or Belarus with Armenia is difficult to imagine. And any of the states to which Russia declares a certain economic war is easily imagined. And this is the essence of today's CIS.

This is not a Commonwealth, but the organization of consumers of Russian gas - with the exception of Uzbekistan, which provides gas with Tajikistan, and even sells surpluses to the same Gazprom. He, Uzbekistan, has his own, sometimes very complex, gas relations with Russia. That is, the basis of the CIS is gas, and not at all the unity of peoples and views. And Russia uses its gas advantage with might and main. Remember how Belarus entered the Customs Union under coercion. Everything went like clockwork. On June 23, 2010, Gazprom reduced gas supply to Belarus to 30% of planned volumes-due to debt. But actually, Belarus has always had gas debt to Russia. So this step was very similar to blackmail. And then there were quick negotiations of Alexander Lukashenko with Dmitry Medvedev, and - Voila! - Lukashenko very quickly signed the Customs Code, contrary to his own statements.

“After the change of power in Russia and the arrival of the new, posteltsian leadership of the CIS ceased to fulfill its functions,” says Stanislav Shushkevich. - Vladimir Putin immediately began to change the entire system of relations, putting Russia in the center. So today the CIS is almost the USSR, with a center in Moscow, with the right of Moscow to dictate the conditions. ” Stanislav Stanislavovich forgot to add: with gas addiction as a basis.

Georgia left the CIS officially, Turkmenistan plays in an associated member, Ukraine, as it turned out, has never been a member of the CIS, and now he is fighting, Moldova goes to the Association with the EU. In general, "there are few of us - we are our pain." From the past fifteen republics - fifteen sisters, seven remained at best. Less than half. Therefore, against the background of the expanding European Union of the CIS, it has, frankly, a pale look. And this pallor began to appear especially clearly before the wars - rather, after revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine.

Then the new authorities announced the creation of SDV - the Commonwealth of a democratic choice, into which the rebellious Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, who left the USSR without any CIS, entered with pleasure. It was obvious that the further path of Ukraine and Georgia was to the European Union. It was then that Vladimir Putin announced that the CIS had turned into a club, and perhaps an EURARASEC can be a really influential interstate structure. It was then that he spoke about the Customs Union. It was urgent to contrast something to the expanding EU. This is deep, interpretation, from the time of the Cold War - the West needs to be opposed. The West is a hidden enemy.

If there, in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha, the CIS was conceived as a form of equal partnership, then the Customs Union from the very beginning was a Russian project, not interstate. After joining the vehicle in Belarus in 2011, a default occurred, and the salaries decreased three times. Then huge duties were introduced for imports, which was not before. That is, Belarus did not won anything, but Russia upheld customs duties for most of the goods contrary to the signed by the Customs Code. So it’s ridiculous to even consider the economic component - this is one big deception. The Customs Union is Putin’s personal answer to the West in return for the quietly dying CIS.

And if we take into account that unrecognized Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and fighting Syria intend to join the Customs Union, it can be argued that this new union is not only the Russian response to the EU expansion, but also a potentially dangerous to the world to combine the rogue regimes. There is no economic component here at all - all of the listed countries and unrecognized territories have too small trade with each other (but considerable with Russia) and do not need additional unification schemes. But Russia is ready to take not in quality, but by quantity, and to strengthen its influence in the world on the principle of "let everyone be afraid."

But the CIS somehow no one in the world was afraid. And it still played its role in the post-Soviet world. Just now another life, other wars, other relations. And Russia is also completely different. Not in Limon's sense, but in generally accepted. It is pointless to hold the CIS outside the morgue with artificial ventilation apparatuses and defibibrillers. It has already played its historical role. The second Belovezhskaya Paul with a quiet signing of new agreements will not be. Now the post -Soviet policy is made by gas and Grads.