The ruble defeated by the sanctions

On Tuesday, the Central Bank of Russia set a new record low ruble in relation to the dollar: 41.05

The cost of the ruble in recent months has been non -stop. In recent weeks, the cost of reducing the cost of the Russian currency has increased. If since the beginning of the year it has fallen in price by twenty -six percent of the dollar, then over the past thirty days the ruble exchange rate has decreased by seven percent.

And this, most likely, is far from the limit of the fall of the ruble, since on his course, decreasing oil prices were not reflected by and large. So believes an American economist, an employee of the Guuver Institute Mikhail Burnshtam :

- The drop in oil prices began recently, and this is, so to speak, futures prices, that is, the prices at which they will pay for oil in the future. They could not have a major influence on the ruble course. This will happen in the future. And it will be a very great influence. This will affect the budget of next year and in all condition of the Russian economy. So far, the main reason for the fall of the ruble is international sanctions and, above all, that Russian enterprises and banks cannot refinance their debts, and they are huge.

- Is it possible to stop this drop in the ruble, or in reality Moscow has no real opportunities to support the Russian currency?

- It can be stopped only in one case, if the Central Bank of Russia introduces one or another norm of the mandatory return of foreign exchange earnings by Russian exporters. Then exporting enterprises will bring dollars and euros to Russia, invest them in the reserves of the Central Bank and sell them in the domestic market. And this will lead to a decrease in the course of foreign currencies and an increase in the ruble course. Without this measure of the Central Bank, the fall of the ruble will continue for objective reasons: because the outflow of capital increases. And then the ruble will fall for a long time and fall low.

Russia sells natural resources. Therefore, the fall of the ruble will not facilitate the position of Russian exporters

- If the recipe for saving the ruble is so obvious, why will the Russian authorities do not use it?

- The Central Bank and the government resorted to this extent in the early nineties, then after the default of 1998. In 2006, this measure was canceled when oil prices were high and, accordingly, the flow of foreign exchange earnings was high. The Central Bank spoke over the past months and weeks that such a measure could be considered. But, apparently, under the lobbying influence of resource enterprises, they have not yet been resolved.

- And how do you relate to the statements of representatives of the Russian authorities that in reality the fall of the ruble can be beneficial for the Russian economy, since it will make its goods more competitive?

The fall of the ruble will continue. And while this trend looks the most likely

- The fall of the national currency is good for exporters of machines and agricultural products, because their goods become more competitive, but then import prices for all consumers are increasing. Russia sells natural resources. The natural resource market does not depend on the national currency, because oil, gas and other natural resources are estimated in the world market in dollars. Therefore, the fall of the ruble will not facilitate the position of Russian exporters, on the contrary, it will worsen the position of the national economy, and if, coupled with this, an oil prices really occur, then a serious blow to the budget will be delivered.

- Presumably how the ruble can fall low? After all, since the beginning of the year, it has decreased by twenty -six percent, and the rate of falling has been accelerating.

The United States announced that they are imposing economic sanctions. Therefore, this is not about the conspiracy, but about the open confrontation

- In just six months, he fell by fifteen percent. Over the past month, he fell by seven percent. If such a dynamics is preserved, then until the end of the year it can fall, say, fifteen percent. But the prediction of the currency courses is very difficult, because it depends on the policy of the Central Bank, and on the policy of enterprises that export capital, but it is very possible that a serious drop in the ruble will continue. And while this trend looks most likely.

- How would they answer those who claim that a sharp drop in oil prices, from which Russia can seriously suffer, like the fall of the ruble, is the result of a certain conspiracy against Moscow?

- The fall of the ruble began earlier for economic reasons. But the acceleration of the fall of the ruble and the acceleration of the depletion of the reserves of the Central Bank is a direct and direct result of sanctions. Western countries and, above all, the United States of America announced in the spring and summer of 2014 that they impose economic sanctions. Therefore, this is not about the conspiracy, but about the open confrontation.