The collapse of the ruble in the fall of 2014 is increasingly reminiscent of the situation that developed at the end of 2008 - beginning of 2009. Oil prices are falling, dollar and euro rates are reaching historical highs, and the Central Bank is spending international reserves to support the ruble.

The Central Bank will dampen peak demand for foreign currency by issuing it directly to banks →

How correct is this comparison? Vedomosti superimposed the monthly dynamics of the dollar exchange rate on the change in gold and foreign exchange reserves during those months when the American currency almost continuously rose in price and reserves decreased.

The exact same graph for 2014 looks different. It shows that gold and foreign exchange reserves are declining much more slowly, although the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate are similar.

The graph shows 2008-2009. It can be seen that after a period of sharp growth in the dollar, a period of strengthening of the ruble followed, which is why the American currency fell in price from 35.72 to 30.98 rubles. In 2014, such a period has not yet arrived. Investment bank analysts, judging by their forecasts for the end of the year , believe that it will certainly come.

Devaluation 2009 vs devaluation 2014