The truce showed how unmanageable the Ukrainian conflict is. Reflections of Victor Loshak

The truce in the war in Donbass revealed the spontaneous, partisan nature of everything that happens there. All this makes the path to peace even more difficult

Unprofessional military personnel are difficult to manage both in days of war and in days of peace
Photo: Petr Shelomovsky, Kommersant

Victor Loshak

This is how the chief military prosecutor of Ukraine, Anatoly Matios, described at a press conference his attempt to return to its position the 5th territorial defense battalion "Prykarpattya", with the flight of which the defeat of the Ukrainian forces near Ilovaisk began: "We get into the helicopter - the commander of the ground forces, me and my first deputy. We are flying to Kirovograd, Znamenka. We landed a helicopter in a field, we are going to them. I am ashamed to say this: the Kwantung army - someone was drunk, barefoot, armed to the teeth, with military grenades on their belts, sent RPGs. to the helicopter. Senior Lieutenant Prochuk... gave the command to shoot."

It is difficult to say how and who controls the “Kwantung armies” on both sides of the front line, and now the armistice line. On the Ukrainian side there is the “Right Sector” with its leadership, there are troops of the Ministry of Defense, volunteer battalions seem to be subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, but, in fact, they are controlled either by businessmen who finance them, or by commanders who have achieved “independence”. Hence the problems in wartime and the complete uncertainty of how volunteers and the Right Sector will behave when the war ends. For example, a simple question: will they want to obey the supreme commander in chief? Already on his way to the Rada, the hero of the war and Maidan, Vladimir Parasyuk, said in a pre-election interview: “Tell me, do you know at least one person who believes that our president is a fucking kid who stands up for the Ukrainian people and who does everything right? "

Is it any wonder that the Ukrainian side does not even really know how many of its soldiers are in captivity. In an interview with Kommersant, Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Vasily Budik does not hide: “We can only guess the exact number based on the requests from relatives that we received. It’s easier with the military - there are lists, a single center. With volunteers it’s worse. They came at will commanders received weapons, they are fighting, it seems like there are a lot of them, but it seems like there are none.”

In Ukraine, the duality of the situation literally haunts any observer. They are convinced, and not without reason, that they are fighting the Russian army, and at the same time they are broadcasting heroic series about the Soviet military and police; Everywhere they show and write about the horrors of the war in Donbass, and at the same time, the Donetsk region for 7 months of the year is in second place in the country for the purchase of new, including expensive, cars; and the main thing is that Kyiv cannot govern Donetsk, and does not want to let it go, and in Donetsk itself they do not abandon the forms of governance and economic interaction developed over the years of living together. The last contradiction leads to collapse, which with the onset of cold weather is fraught with simply tragic consequences. Tens of thousands of people will lose their jobs if they are left without heat from the blast furnace of the Yenakievo metallurgical plant and the battery of the Avdeevka coke plant.

It seemed to everyone that the path to peace lay through agreements and their implementation, but, as expected, this war, like any other, had already acquired its own internal logic. Volleys of "grads" from both sides continue to claim the lives of civilians in Donetsk and in the Mariupol region. On the side of the separatists, detachments have appeared that do not recognize the truce and continue their war. According to rumors, the worst thing is with the Russian Cossacks: some do not recognize the local Lugansk and Donetsk leaders, others do not recognize the terms of the agreements in Minsk.

From all this it is obvious that in the territories of the current DPR and LPR it is difficult to understand with whom and how to negotiate on vital issues. Obviously, this is an area where there is still a strong criminal influence. A group of former peacekeeping officers even appeared in Kyiv, trying to influence the situation through local “authorities.” The Kiev magazine "Focus" found its leader, reserve colonel Sergei Grabsky. He explained that communication with criminals sometimes helps organize the safe delivery of goods, prevent looting, and even ensure the quiet existence of a small settlement.

“There really are “authoritative” people in Donbass who understand that if Russia is there tomorrow, they will go to “warm the sky of Magadan,” Grabsky explained to the magazine. “You can achieve something from them, but here it is important to understand who is doing what.” lives, do not overestimate ordinary cowardly scum. They are also very attached to their “land”. If, for example, they themselves are from Makeyevka, they won’t come to Alchevsk. Before starting a conversation, it is advisable to know what territory their influence extends to.

The influence of the “authorities” on this war was indirectly confirmed by Advisor to the Minister of Defense Vasily Budik. Explaining the difficulties of exchanging prisoners, he named perhaps the most important thing that the separatists put forward as a condition for the return of people detained, or even already convicted, of theft, robbery, robbery. But these people do not in any way fall under the definition of prisoners of war.

Judging by what they say in Ukraine, the criminal world really did not stand aside from this war. On both sides of the front, property is being redistributed; yesterday's fighters, without taking off their uniforms, are fully armed in participating in raider takeovers. But, according to rumors, scammers were especially active. There are often cases when parents and wives of those who went to war are informed that their husbands and children are wounded and are in captivity. Posing as militias, scammers offer to urgently arrange medical assistance for money or even release the prisoner. It’s good for those who in this situation call their loved ones on time. Those who didn’t get through were the ones who paid.

Apparently, the Ukrainian war turned out to be an excellent environment for criminals. And this is one of the reasons why this confrontation between the “Petliurites and the Makhnovists” needs to be ended quickly, but it is already well clear how difficult it will be to do this.

Behind the scenes of the war