Why does the Kremlin subsidize the "junta"?

Russia, Ukraine and the EU signed documents on the settlement of a gas conflict for the winter. As it usually happens, a lot of details from observers are silent, and quickly figure out who has lost to whom and how much, seems not to be such a simple occupation. Nevertheless, the agreement this time is relatively transparent. The Gas War was terminated for the time of Russia, which went on significant concessions in order to maintain the Minsk peace agreements reached with Petro Poroshenko. But this contribution is nothing more than an advance that, after April 1, 2015, can again lead to new gas conflicts.

To understand what the parties agreed on, we will divide the subject of study into two questions: the first is the issue of duty, and the second is the price of gas for the winter period.

So, Gazprom claims that on June 16 (the date when Russia stopped the supply of blue fuel due to the lack of prepayment) Ukraine consumed 11.5 billion cubic meters of gas, for which it did not pay. Gazprom estimates this volume of Gazprom gas at $ 5.3 billion (however, according to Putin on Valdai, 5.6 billion is already), which corresponds to a price of $ 485 per thousand cubic meters - the maximum price providing for the cancellation of a discount of $ 100 in the form of the cancellation of the export duties for gas and 100 dollars, thrown out under the Kharkov agreements, which Moscow recognized as unilaterally as a one -way order invalid (after the transition of Crimea along with the Black Sea base of Russia). Recall that the price of $ 268 per thousand cubic meters from January 1, 2014 Viktor Yanukovych bargained in Russia in exchange for refusing to sign an association agreement with the EU. Accordingly, Ukraine could afford to pay for gas from January to March, until Moscow seized $ 200 from the contract price of a thousand cubic meters. However, in addition to this Surprise, Yanukovych’s debt for gas from November to December (Yanukovych did not pay for gas did not pay) at a price of $ 368 per thousand cubic meters.

So, the number one riddle: what is the amount of the debt of Ukraine for the delivered gas? The position of Gazprom is $ 5.3 billion (the price is $ 485 per thousand cubic meters). The position of Ukraine is $ 3.1 billion (price $ 285). Putin’s position, which he expressed at the Valdai Forum, is $ 4.5 billion ($ 385 price). Russia's answer: depends on how Ukraine behaves. As we want, we will count. The current time agreements on gas were not allowed this problem. Signed documents say that everyone understands the recorded amounts as he wants. Naftogaz believes that, having paid 3.1 billion, he will pay off all debts. Gazprom believes that only part.

In any case, the goal of Russia is not to get all debts from Ukraine, but to be debts, and large, and Moscow could include Kyiv to loyalty with threats to require them in full. And it doesn’t matter how much Ukraine owes us - the amount of debt will always be more of its possibilities. After all, many have probably forgotten that back in March 2014, Dmitry Medvedev was not pounding with a boot, speaking about the debt of Ukraine $ 16 billion . Today, somehow they don’t remember this anymore, but there is no doubt that all this is postponed to the “worst” times.

But the topic of debts does not end there. Actually, if Ukraine must pay 3.1 billion before the end of the year (and this is all the money that it has to solve gas problems), then due to which it will make a gas prepayment? Initially, Russia demanded financial guarantees from first -class European banks, the EU refused this. The IMF loan, the receipt of which is scheduled for January, will not be transferred to an earlier time either.

The amount of prepayment for gas for November and December will be $ 1.7 billion (4.6 billion cubic meters at a price of $ 378 per thousand). Alexei Pushkov wrote on his Twitter today: “Gas agreements are signed, but whether they will comply with the great Ukraine, which still refused to pay debts, another question.” That is, Moscow has no guarantees of Kiev’s fulfillment of all his obligations, but this was a critical condition for achieving a winter compromise.

Actually, the second topic - gas prices - is relatively transparent. It is clear that Russia gave Ukraine a discount, that is, the post-revolutionary power, despite the Russian-Ukrainian crisis of relations, will receive gas at a price at which Yanukovych paid for gas until January 1, 2014. The question arises, why such generosity and willingness to subsidize the "junta"?

Putin, who, as you know, understands in detail in gas matters, had two significant reasons right now to make significant concessions, albeit temporary. The first reason is the Minsk agreements with Poroshenko. Putin needs to do everything to maintain a truce and preserve the situation as it is. This would minimize geopolitical risks, but allowed a certain extent to preserve the intra -Ukrainian “lever” of the influence of Moscow. The intransigence of gas, on the contrary, could strike Poroshenko’s positions and jeopardize the Minsk world.

The second reason is sanctions. Brave with market relations, threats of the gas war and long shutdown in the winter period Gazprom, maybe, but only to the Crimea and everything that followed it. Now, when the position of the Russian key partner in Europe - Germany is practically no different from the US position in Ukraine, Russia is experiencing a fierce crisis in relations with the EU. It would not be very reasonable to freeze European partners in winter at least.

There is another, already objective reason that has somewhat actualized during this year. This is a gradual loss of Gazprom of its positions in the gas market in Europe. This process began several years ago, but nevertheless until the middle of 2014 there was a persistent feeling that the Kremlin was ready to neglect market and reputational risks and go to the gas war in the winter. The responsibility for interruptions with supplies could always be assigned to Ukraine that would be accused of theft of gas. We have already seen this. But after the collapse of Boeing, the Ukrainian crisis was radically reborn. This “Black Swan” sharply narrowed the Russia maneuver in all directions of its foreign policy and finally put the country in the rank of “malicious violators of the world order”, the direct victims of which were not only Ukrainians, but also citizens of other countries. “Ground” weapons, including gas, Moscow becomes more difficult and more expensive.

Therefore, now in relations with Europe, Putin will play the role of a “good boy”, demonstrating a tendency to understand, forgiveness and sympathy. Poroshenko received his advance confidence for the next five months, after which Russia will always have the opportunity to return to the sky -high figures of debts and gas prices. But what will happen five months after such a difficult 2014, which became “black” for Russia, no one will predict yet.