Certainty is better than uncertainty. Even bad.

Some Forbes magazine readers believe that Russia has embarked on a path leading to death and extinction, and this plunges them into depression. In fact, there is no need to be sad. Indeed, the events of 2014 have changed the prospects for the Russian Federation - short, medium and long term. Indeed, these prospects in all three time horizons have deteriorated so much that they call into question the very existence of the country and its main ethnic group.

But this is not a new story. Twenty-something years ago the USSR disappeared, ninety-something years ago the Russian Empire. So there is nothing fundamentally new in the disappearances of states.

What is more important here is the appearance of certainty. Until recently, prospects in all three time horizons were still debatable. Just a year ago, the Ministry of Economy predicted positive GDP growth rates for the next (“recovery”) period. In the medium term, it was believed that the economic recovery that began in Europe would pull our economy with it, creating (following China) new demand not only for energy, but also for investment goods such as rolled metal. Long-term prospects were also discussed in the spirit of “the situation with the demographic balance is not good, it’s already difficult to expand immigration, but everything is not hopeless - we’ll bring in a little Ukrainians, we’ll civilize the Tajiks a little, we’ll increase the retirement age a little”...

The uncertainty of the future remained, even as the country's economic prospects began to deteriorate sharply - back in 2013! - in connection with the termination of the Federal Reserve's extended lending program. Russian financial and economic authorities continued to believe that medium-term economic growth was achievable and that the country's long-term prospects were certain. Russian business wanted to believe, but reality got in the way. As a result, he doubted.

Fortunately, finally certainty has appeared, and it is quite ironclad. Now you can safely calculate business projects based on the defined forecast scenarios.

Firstly, Russian businessmen have experience working in conditions of economic recession - the period from 1992 to 2000. We also have experience working in conditions of financial crisis and sharp devaluation (1998, 2008). Not to say that there is nothing terrible, but lessons have been learned and standards have been developed. Secondly, the negative medium-term outlook becomes calculable and is taken into account when making investment decisions. This is also standard procedure. Third, a negative long-term outlook is also easily projected into economic decision-making. For example, you no longer have to worry about what kind of fortune you will leave to your grandchildren. There's no harm in leaving them nothing; it's just the equivalent of a progressive inheritance tax. Actually, real Russian business is “here and now, and all at once.” There are several questions that immediately arise in the business planning process.

Question number one (naturally): whether to pay taxes. Of course you will have to. As the communists explained to us in their time, before it disappears, the state strengthens itself. This is not only dialectical, but also completely rational: when 60% of the population are pensioners, taxes will be collected fiercely.

Question number two (also natural): should I learn Chinese? There is no need to rush here if you are not under sanctions. It is much more productive from a business point of view to master the basics of Islamic culture. If anyone doesn’t know, the largest Muslim city in Europe is Moscow. The second will soon be “Petra’s Creation”. So Islamic banking, halal food and embroidered prayer rugs are quite promising niches.

Question number three: how mobile and compact should a business be in such conditions. Correct answer: as mobile as possible and as compact as possible. Like an Israeli high-tech startup that can be moved to Silicon Valley within three days. Whom “the world caught, but did not catch.”

Strictly speaking, new realities should be looked at as a gift. There is no need to spend money on forecasters and analysts and worry about taking into account uncertainties. You have finally been given a clear and unambiguous roadmap. No matter where the road leads, there is plenty of time and opportunity for business. You'll most likely enjoy it.

Everything goes according to plan