Translated material
"Less money - more repressions"
Elephant: Sergey Guriev about what is happening in the Russian economy
Economist Sergei Guriev in the past headed the Russian Economic School, and then emigrated to France. Now he is a professor of economics of the Paris School of Political Sciences. In the joint material of the “Elephant” and the project The Question, Guriev answers the most pressing questions about what is happening in the Russian economy - and how events can develop in the future.
According to Guriev, the current situation in the economy can be called stagnation, or stagflation - when inflation is higher than necessary, and GDP does not grow. Next year, according to the forecast of an economist, the economy will reach the recession stage. However, according to him, the position will become really difficult in two years, since the three -year budget is drawn up at the rate of 37 rubles per dollar and oil prices at the level of $ 100 per barrel. There will be no more such indicators, as well as the predicted GDP growth of 2.5%.
Guriev predicts that Russia's money will end in two or three years. Given that the external debt of the Russian budget is extremely low, the situation could be corrected by loans in the foreign market, but the sanctions are inhibited, the economist says.
“In two years, there will be more repression. There is less money - more repressions. The goal is that the people maintain power in case of reducing income. Propaganda and censorship should reach such a level that people understand that without this power it would be much worse. ”