Small, victorious

The Novorossiya project is not closed. None of the authors and inspirers of this catastrophe project even thought to refuse him: he brings too much money and other dividends to them.

Of course, there are still no New Russia in the borders drawn by Russian imperialists and Orthodox gobblers, the deadlines have yet gone, the price of the project has increased many times, but did not refuse the crazy venture. Suddenly, the Ukrainian people intervened in history, which in all Kremlin layers should not have been in sight. However, this annoying misunderstanding is still hoped to eliminate.

Now in the Kremlin there is a struggle of two groups, which, however, both advocate war with Ukraine. I don’t even know how to divide them: some - for the war right now, the second - just for the war. In the Kremlin now there are no influential forces that would defend the world with neighbors. These are conditionally obsessed imperialists and prudent imperialists.

Obsessed imperialists promote the idea of ​​a large -scale military attack on Ukraine as quickly as possible, expanding the military by the zone controlled by separatists. Therefore, for several days in a row, Girkin shooters gave a detailed interview with Lifenews and Sergey Dorenko, beat the war drum. He and those who support him are ready to fill in the blood of Ukraine and put tens of thousands of Russian lives for this very New Russia. The influence of this group is very great. Winter also does not stop them.

The grouping of calculating imperialists, which from the very beginning kept a wider plan in the Crimea, Donbass and invented New Russia, offers the option more sophisticated: hit, fixed, slightly drove back, piled again.

If you think that Putin is losing the war for Ukraine and everything has already ended, then I just urge soberly to look at the facts. Moreover, the eyes of the Russian president and his advisers.

Crimea - as part of the Russian Federation. A significant part of the Donbass was turned into a fortified fortress, a bone in the throat of Ukraine and a bridgehead for a new offensive. Of course, Putin did not take Kyiv in two weeks, as he scared. I didn’t even take a strategically important port of Mariupol. But large -scale military forces have not yet been involved. Only a few tactical groups of several battalions without the support of aviation threw the Ukrainian army and broke the military situation in the Donbass in a week. That is, Russian generals report to Putin about victories, not defeats.

Now in the Kremlin there is a struggle of two groups: some - for the war right now, the second - just for the war.

The Russian ruling elite does not consider Ukrainians as people, or rather, a single people, all the more he does not see a strong and united nation in Ukrainians. Ukrainians are despised. All conversations in Russian state media are only about Ukrainian greed, cunning and cowardice.

The sanctions of the West, on the one hand, are worried. But, on the other hand, they are angry and forced to act harshly and quickly. The goal has been set - the dismemberment of Ukraine diagonally, and this goal still seems to be feasible. Maybe I can condemn the colors, but I always begin from the fact that the bitter truth is better than a sweet lies.

I am sure that we are all experiencing a critical moment of history. Russia and all its neighbors found themselves at a historical fork, which radically changed the fate of millions of people and entire nations. Already changed. No one really knows what will happen tomorrow and what we will come to. Someone is confident in the revival of the Russian world and in the Renaissance of the Russian Empire. Others call aggression against Ukraine the last jerk of the empire, which will finally undermine the forces of the country.

I try to put myself in the place of Putin to understand the logic of his actions. As part of the experiment, I try to find pluses for Russia in this war.

Yes, Putin solved his domestic political problems. His rating shot up to heaven, but it is comparable to the narcotic high, which requires all a new dose. Some politicians and political scientists-marginals improved their positions. Generals traditionally profit from war. Forgot for a while about Caucasians and Tajiks. Corruption officials sighed freely, because they almost do not remember about them and their fur coat.

That is, individual narrow groups and groups, of course, are satisfied. But are there any pros for the Russian people, for the Russian state?

I carefully look for the positive results of the Russian attack on Ukraine and do not find. There is no excuse for this, and there is no happy finale in this story for Russia.

Two years ago, we sat in the cold Khanty-Mansiysk with a Russian writer and TV presenter Alexander Arkhangelsk. Sasha then just finished his next novel in which, in an intricate artistic form, he described the future of the Russian president.

I insisted that most likely Vladimir Putin would untie a small victorious war. He is offended to the West, it seems to him that the Americans do not respect Russia and him as the president of a great country, so he will try to show them Kuzkin’s mother so as not to bury them.

The goal has been set - the dismemberment of Ukraine diagonally, and this goal still seems to be feasible.

Then we agreed that if there was a war, then it would be a war for Ukraine, since fighting with China is more expensive, there is no need to fight directly with Europe, it itself will be bent soon, and to bite off the Ukrainian piece - this fits into the strategy of creating the Customs Union and ideological ideas, from where great Rus' came from.

I proceeded exclusively from psychology and economics. On the one hand, Russia “gets up from the knees”, the Russian elite spreads his shoulders and again thinks itself with representatives of the great power and the tops of the fate of the world. But at the same time there is a persistent feeling that the world does not respect and not notice Russia. We, they say, are already buying football championships in Europe and we take the maintenance of the chancellors, and the decaying and decaying goropa responds to us with contempt!

Harvard University professor-historian and author of The Collapse: The Accidental Opening of the Berlin Wall, Mary Eliz Sarotta, published an article on psychological trauma in the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, observing the Soviet world and the formidable world. The German special service of the Stasi disappears. Burning secret documents and observing through the slot in the curtains behind the revolutionary crowd rage, Vladimir Putin survived the stress of such a force that, after years, manifests itself in ruthlessness to any revolutionaries and in mercilessness to those whom he considers to be the enemies of Russia.

This experience made Putin easy prey for manipulations from those who see the world through the prism of the Soviet model of the world and the usual anti -Americanism. Careers and conservatives felt for the pain point of the Russian president and played his fears.

There are several groups that, in my opinion, are guilty that we all ended up on the edge of the abyss.

The first is the military and representatives of the military -industrial complex. After the collapse of the USSR, there was no change in the military elite in Russia. At key posts, the commanders of the Soviet era and those whom they brought up remained. It was they who inflated the threat of NATO expansion east, justified our military operations in Moldova and Georgia.

We are already buying football championships in Europe, and the decaying goropa answers us with contempt!

For example, the war in Transnistria was also a generation of the struggle of the Russian military for giant warehouses with weapons. On the other hand, the generals scared the power of NATO bases in the Crimea, because they really did not want to throw their inhabited summer cottages at sea. Of course, I am simplifying, but the basis of general geopolitics is always the first time that is the skill of interest. It turned out relatively easily with Georgia in 2008, and this gave the "party of war" forces.

The military convinced the political leadership of Russia of the hymatic of Crimea as a military bridgehead. They insisted, despite the Treaty of the Black Sea Fleet until 2045, that Ukraine would expel the fleet of the Russian Federation from Crimea and the Black Sea coast will remain undisguised. That it is impossible to find $ 150 million for the construction of a naval base in Novorossiysk. And so on, and so on.

The fact that the Black Sea in the 21st century does not represent any military value, because it is shot from one shore to another through, the generals preferred to make silent. They screwed hysteria and warmed up the country's political leadership. They were assented by manufacturers of weapons, who during the Second Chechen War and especially the war with Georgia felt the forgotten taste of military orders.

The fact that since 1991 in Eastern Europe, not a single NATO base has appeared along the borders of Russia, and the Baltic countries and Poland almost abandoned the armies, because they were not going to fight with anyone, they also did not speak.

A new PRO system in Europe acted as a scarecrow. This about shocking as a beupel, the average Russian began to understand this about better than the most advanced American.

Instead of cooperation with NATO, Russian generals stealthily and openly incited the conflict with the Alliance. I remember, for example, General Ivashov. A man has served his whole life in the central apparatus of the Soviet Ministry of Defense, at the time of the collapse of the USSR there was the Department of the Ministry of Defense. All his established Soviet life and career seemed to collapse with the empire, but the general clung to power and did not give up. In 1996-2001, Ivashov was the head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense. Imagine how he hated both the West and NATO, and he was set to be responsible for international contacts of the Russian army, and he did not spend the day without exposure to “aggressive plans”. Russian generals defended their living space, amused their phantom pains at the expense of the future peaceful Russians.

The raw materials magnates and dealer-dealers supplant Western competitors under the noise from Russia.

As a result, now there will be five new NATO bases on the Russian border, and the new American system about Moscow will not be able to interfere. But the generals, without blinking an eye, will present what happened as a confirmation of those terrible scenarios that they painted for the past 15 years. They finally found confirmation of their dreams of tank strikes.

Another large group of perpetrators, or lobbyists of the war with Ukraine, are the oligarchy-chinch financial and industrial groups. These are not businessmen, but no longer officials. These are precisely close groups consisting of officials and dealers. Accustomed to develop extensively, by seizing property and monopolization of markets, these groups encourage a campaign against Ukraine for new acquisitions. During the obese years, they did not turn their wealth into something new and technological. They never entered world markets with new products - only weapons and only raw materials in all its types. They need a few more weapons production plants and a little more raw materials.

First of all, it is gas, so the president is convinced that Crimea is needed in order to protect the South Stream and master the oil and gas stocks on the shelf. There are those who want to capture Ukrainian metallurgical plants and enterprises of the military -industrial complex.

Kakha Bendukidze, who knew well the mores and traditions of the new Russian capitalism, was sure that the oligarchs actively lobby for military aggression against Ukraine, anticipating large pieces of property that would be broken out if successful. In May 2014, Bendukidze substantiated why Russia would introduce an embargo on Ukrainian goods, and turned out to be absolutely right: “There is a huge influential lobby that is interested in the trade war against Ukraine. There are dozens of very influential people who will be happy to bring to the Kremlin to close the Russian market for Ukrainian goods. Metallurgists will bring. And they will applaud. Temples will applaud. Food, meat-milk will be applauded. Chemists, a significant part, will applaud. What other export of Ukraine to Russia is significant? People will be glad, they will press their hands, say “excellent”, they will earn it. ”

In the spring, immediately after the Crimea, the investors of the war were in the same euphoria as the military. Under the idea of ​​reconstruction of Crimea, one can also master the “gold reserve” of the Russian Empire. And the trip to the industrial Donbass did not seem dangerous and costly.

The voice of the oligarchs, suffering losses from Western sanctions, is not heard even now in the choir of raw materials magnates and dealership-patriots, supplanting Western competitors from Russia from Russia. They shake in front of the president of the Russian chicken, which, of course, is juicier than American legs, and ride in a Russian tank, which is undoubtedly stronger than any Abrams. The armor is so thick that not every official will immediately get out of the Russian tank. And the fact that France does not sell the Mistral helicopter carriers is even for the better, because the Mistralls are full of ...

And the third group is our notebooks, who for years have been unhindered and uncontested to drive a propaganda wave.

Mikhail Leontyev is considered a great philosopher. Of course, he is not devoid of talent and knowledge, but the number of cockroaches in his head exceeds permissible norms. Bright showman Sergei Dorenko generally has nothing to do with analytics, but it broadcasts from the TV or from the radio. They assented and assent their owners, and therefore they are kept on the air for years.

In any normal country, they are fighting with an intellectual monopoly, and you will easily find serious alternative expert opinions, his ardent enemy will sit on a television show next to Obama’s supporter, and each CNN will find his own Fox News . In Russia, the gap between reality and its interpretation of the Kremlin propagandists is rapidly expanding. For years, Leontiev repeated that there was no such country - Ukraine, and deserved this pension in Rosneft. To rake the results of its analytical piles will already be another generation.

Dorenko records fiery calls to hit Ukraine and move all his strength to Kyiv. And there is so much manic passion that I even began to suspect Dorenko that he slyly wants to lure Putin into a trap and so sophisticatedly avenge some old grievances.

And no glee. On the contrary, several independent Internet resources were blocked in the spring. Now they will finish the Echo of Moscow. Once again, regional media will be exposed. Information and analytical emptiness becomes ringing. The dream of reason gives rise to monsters.

It seems that it will not be possible to stop the avalanche. Unless you find a replacement for the all -consuming idea of ​​the greatness of the Russian world in the fight against the evil West. The remnants of a healthy Russian elite must formulate a new project. The project that will allow President Putin to preserve the formidable image of the father of the peoples and protect the country from confrontation with the civilized world. For example, replace the war with Ukraine with a long -awaited and total war with corruption. Even without Navalny and Nemtsov. You can not stop the train, breaking off the brakes, but you can switch the arrows.

Although there is practically no chance of jumping out of the spun gears of war and redirect an avalanche of neoimpricalism into a safe channel. Optimism in the present time is ordinary cowardice, the German philosopher Spengler wrote on the eve of the world disaster.