Arithmetic

Well, what are we all about politics and about politics! Let's already about something neutral, or something, otherwise it is tired of straight! Why are you arithmetic, let's say, do not like it? Yeah, like it? Then we will do it!

So what do we have with a goose? We have a barrel (that is, simply a barrel) of Russian oil "Urals" at a price of $ 75.12 for November 20, that is, $ 34.83 lower than it was in June. (And in general, it is lower than ever since September 9, 2010.) As we are told, the drop in the average annual price of oil for $ 10 leads to a loss of $ 70 billion-that is, somewhere from 2 to 3 trillion rubles-income of the federal budget of Russia.

In principle, the loss of the budget is already felt, but not in vain for 2015, it is oversized so that the expenses of people - healthcare there, education - reduced by 21.4 and 5 percent, respectively (in absolute numbers, excluding inflation). This is increased for tanks by 33 percent, but the tanks are obviously more important.

But not everything is so dramatic, because at the same time we have a dollar for which 47.03 rubles give on November 20. This is 14 rubles per dollar more than at the beginning of the year. And having risen 1 ruble-again in the average annual calculus-the dollar brings the budget, as we are told again, 180-200 billion unplanned revenues (which with the current course means playing $ 3-3.5 billion).

Yes, and in 2015, we have 52 percent of the federal budget revenues will be formed at the expense of revenues related to the sale of oil and gas. But on top of all this, we also have persistent statements from the Kremlin that we will undead our oil and gas for rubles and only for rubles, getting rid of dependence on the damned dollar.

And here arithmetic begins. The fact is that none other than Igor Sechin - a person who is passionate about the idea of exemption from evergreen American pieces of paper - published his calculations, according to which the transition to ruble calculations in the trade in Russian oil will automatically mean attention! -a drop in the income generated by this trade by 11-15 percent.

Even arithmetic inevitably leads to the very conclusions from which at the beginning of this article I so wanted to go into something neutral ...

Igor Ivanovich, as the secretary of the presidential commission on the fuel and energy sector and the first person in Rosneft, knows what he is talking about. In addition, Sechin warns, oil trade in rubles will lead to increased demand for rubles, which will mean the growth of his exchange rate compared to the dollar, not the fall. That is, from changing the dollar exchange rate, new money in the budget will not appear, but, on the contrary, will disappear from the budget, at a speed of 180-200 billion rubles a year with the strengthening of the dollar for each ruble in average annual calculus. Taking into account this, apparently, others are less oriented against the dollar than Sechin-experts in oil and gas trade, calculate that the losses from the transition to the ruble can reach 17 percent of the current income.

And now the question is: if the budget has, well, to put it mildly, some problems with income; If you treat these problems are supposed to be “lowering” the ruble to the dollar, since the oil instead of a noble salvation of the budget of the Russian Federation is very cheaper; if the budget and the country by 52 percent of its entire collective wallet depend on the sale of oil and gas; If the implementation of the idea of transitions to ruble calculations in oil and gas trade kills from 11 to 17 percent of the oil and gas revenues of the budget, that is, leads to a complete disappearance of 6 to 9 percent of the total revenues of the budget, in such conditions, as it should be called with perseverance, not listening even with Igor Ivanovich Sechin (who is in love with love for love You can’t suspect the dollar as such), pushes and pushes the idea that you need to sell our oil and gas right from tomorrow for rubles?

Is it not necessary to call this person an economic saboteur, purposefully working on the separation of the budget and the economy of Russia? In such conditions, should not be posed before this person a question asked by a charming wolf performed by Vladimir Basov in the unforgettable film "About the Red Red Riding Hood": "Who are you working for?" In the film, in response, it sounded: "On the owner ...", but it is natural to clarify: "And who is the owner under such circumstances?"

And you say - arithmetic! Even arithmetic inevitably leads to the very conclusions from which at the beginning of this article I so wanted to go into something neutral ...

Igor Sutyan-London Military-Political Expert. A former employee of the Institute of the United States and Canada, in 2004 was sentenced to 15 years in prison for state treason. The verdict was called into question the human rights community and the European Court of Human Rights. In 2010, he was released as a result of the exchange of prisoners between Russia and the USA