The conspiracy of the outcasts

The President of Rosneft Igor Sechin and the Saudi king Abdullah, it seems, is polar strategic tasks

Photo: Alexander Miridonov/Kommersant, AFP

On November 27, the OPEC summit starts in Vienna, and two days before, the 25th, the oil conference of countries that are not part of the OPEC will host, which will meet the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin and the Foreign Minister Raphael Rafael Ramirez

The Venezuelan elite, whose political survival also directly depends on oil prices, makes desperate efforts, trying to enlist the support of oil producing countries that are not included in OPEC, and prevent further drop in “black gold”. And the main ally in this struggle, Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro considers Russia. On November 20, Maduro called a fair price of $ 100 per barrel and accused the United States of increasing the production of shale oil "to strike on Russian positions."

The head of the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry, the former curator of the country's energy complex, Rafael Ramirez, made a world tour, during which he visited Algeria, Qatar, Iran and Russia. However, apparently, only in Moscow they supported the efforts of Venezuela. As the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, Alexander Novak, said on November 18, two countries discussed measures to restrain the fall in oil prices. At the same time, the minister refused to explain what steps we are talking about.

However, Venezuela has already taken one of these steps. For the sake of the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, she refused to hold an oil conference with the participation of countries that were not part of the OPEC in Karakas and transferred it to Vienna. This was done so that Sichin, who will take part in the conference, be able to personally communicate with representatives of OPEC, who will go to their summit in the capital of Austria, regarding energy prices. (The EU imposed sanctions against Rosneft, but its head Igor Sechin is only under US sanctions).

Six months ago, Venezuela took place the most severe anti -government protests, during which dozens of people died. But, as the American The Washington Post writes with sarcasm, now the days can already be called “good old”: then the cost of Venezuelan oil was $ 97 per barrel, now it has decreased to $ 70. And with each country's lost dollar, the country's budget loses to $ 700 million per year.

The country richest in the world in the world, Venezuela most affected by the lasting 7 weeks of falling oil prices. At least three reasons for this. Firstly, oil exports to the United States were reduced, which, thanks to the production of shale oil, have achieved the highest energy production from 1965. Secondly, China is losing confidence in Venezuela, which last years has generously credited this Latin American country. And, finally, the third and probably the main reason is the incompetence of the current government of Venezuela. As a result, the confidence rating of President Maduro slopped from 55 % in April last year to 30 % now. Now, almost every day, Maduro appears on national TV with accusations of an “oil conspiracy” against the US imperialism and desperate calls for foreign countries to stop the unfavorable trend. Familiar, isn't it?

As most oil experts indicate, from the upcoming meeting of OPEC, you should not wait for decisions to reduce the volume of oil production and supplies. According to the oil trader with the London Exchange, Andrew Dyson, “Saudi Arabia, the main supplier of energy in the world, apparently has a long -term strategy to withdraw from the global oil market from non -traditional sources, primarily shale oil of the United States”. The low price for “traditional” oil, according to Riyadh, will make unprofitable production of energy from shale sands and force America to abandon the shale. In this struggle, Er-Riyad Karakas will not be able to defeat under any conditions. To adjust the demand and supply of oil bypassing OPEC, you need to be prepared to reduce the extraction of 4 million barrels. Venezuela, which mines about 2.8 million per day, even with the support of Russia, such a task is beyond strength. Russia also stated that it is considering the issue of reducing production (the plan for 2015 - 525 million tons). The Prime Minister of the Russian Federation in 2000-2004 Mikhail Kasyanov said in an interview with The New Times that in 2015, oil production in Russia may fall by 2 %.