Not really

“The weaker the ruble, the better the budget” - and other myths about the economic crisis in Russia

Even in the most unfavorable conditions, high -ranking Russian officials are trying to reassure the citizens of the country. Medusa chose four main myths about the economic crisis in Russia and explained why they should not be believed.

The weaker the ruble, the better the budget

Vladimir Putin, president: “But look: before we sold the goods that cost the dollar and received 32 rubles for it. And now we will receive 45 rubles for the same goods at a dollar price. The budget revenues have increased, not decreased. ”

In fact, not: from a formal point of view, the budget is really easier to fill with a weak ruble. More than half of the federal budget (52%) make up revenues from the oil and gas sector. Russian companies receive income in dollars, and they pay taxes in rubles - it turns out that they will be able to give the state more money. But along with the weakening of the ruble, the price of oil also fell. If you forget about the exchange rates for a short time and calculate how the price of the Urals barrels in rubles changed, we will see that the budget does not have to talk about any benefit: there are no more income.

If you earn and spend in rubles, then there is nothing to worry about

Alexey Ulyukaev, Minister of Economic Development: "If your income and expenses are ruble, you should absolutely do not care what the course is there."

In fact, not: do not forget that against the backdrop of weakening the ruble, the prices of goods and services are growing. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the prices of products by the end of the year will increase by 12% , and the total inflation (that is, rising prices for goods and services as a whole) in the first half of 2015 will reach 10%.

Western sanctions will help the Russian economy

Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister: “If we talk about a direct effect, then contrary to what they often say in the media, what some analysts say, they have not yet had any significant effect. But this does not mean that we are happy about this. "

In fact, no: Dmitry Medvedev explained for several months that the sanctions would not only not damage, but also help the Russian economy. But over time-and with the introduction of new restrictions-the Prime Minister admitted that they "are able to create additional pressure on the entire financial and economic system." In the fall, the Central Bank called sanctions one of the main negative factors affecting the Russian economy, along with a drop in oil prices. Due to the restriction of access to foreign loans for Russian companies, the authorities have to lend them from sovereign funds, which must insure the budget in case of a crisis. According to the Ministry of Finance, sanctions are worth the economy up to $ 40 billion per year .

Russia will defeat the sanctions with import substitution

Igor Shuvalov, First Deputy Prime Minister: “Now we are unfolding industrial projects, and then we will not be so terrible for us to change the course. Or with a falling price of oil, because produced in the Russian Federation will not depend on the external conjuncture. You need to learn how to consume and produce and consume domestic as much as possible. ”

Vladimir Putin, president: “It became clear that our agriculture is able to cope with almost all the tasks. If we had not felt, I would not feel that agriculture was able to solve these problems, we would never introduce any response. It’s more expensive for yourself, why to create problems. ”

In fact, no: import substitution requires huge costs and time. The Accounts Chamber notes that the budget does not have enough funds if reality turns out to be less optimistic than government forecasts - in particular, if mutual sanctions are not canceled in 2015, as expected in the government. For many types of products, imports have been growing in recently. Now Russia does not have enough capacities to replace imports with its products, according to the reports of the Accounts Chamber. Russia's sanctions against other countries and the rejection of some types of food products led to an increase in prices for their Russian counterparts by more than 10%.