With a hammer - with a breeze

Now is the worst time for the privatization of Rosneft, but preparations for it are in full swing

At the very moment when the euro is already worth 65, and oil is almost the same, the topic of the privatization of a large block of Rosneft shares suddenly turned out to be in trend. There are no official statements on this matter, but there is no refutation of the information launched in the media by high-ranking "sources" ...

At the very moment when the euro is already worth 65, and oil is almost the same, the topic of the privatization of a large block of Rosneft shares suddenly turned out to be in trend. There are no official statements on this matter, but there is no refutation of the information launched in the media by high-ranking "sources" .

However, the privatization of the state-owned stake in the country's main oil company has been talked about for more than a year, and the key parameters have not changed. 19.5% of the company's shares are expected to be sold, and not cheaper than the price paid for Rosneft during the 2006 IPO. It seems that all these "sources" migrated to the directive of the government, which must be signed by the prime minister.

Until this document is published, questions remain: what price is meant? In 2006, during the IPO, which, let me remind you, was "people's", shares were sold at 203 rubles apiece, which equaled $7.55 (at a rate of 26.9 rubles per dollar). Now for 200 rubles and four dollars you can't help out. In June, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that he hoped to get 423 billion rubles for 19.5% of the company, which was then $12.6 billion, and now it is $8.1 billion. Rosneft President Igor Sechin said in October that he was ready to sell the company for $8.12 per share, which, taking into account exchange rate realities and the number of shares proposed for sale, means the price of the package is $16.8 billion, or 874 billion rubles, which is twice as high as the estimate of the Ministry of Finance.

Moreover, if a fifth of the company, according to its president, is worth $16.8 billion, then the whole of it is $84 billion, while Rosneft is currently quoted on the stock exchange below fifty dollars.

Performing simple arithmetic operations allows us to conclude: either Rosneft will be put up on conditions that are absolutely unacceptable for the market (otherwise, why the sudden acceleration of the bureaucratic apparatus up to the office of the prime minister ?), Or Igor Ivanovich agreed to sell the package at a price half that which he considers fair.

The second hypothesis has a logical justification.

The question, which, it would seem, is not difficult to answer: who will receive the money for Rosneft, no matter how much it is? It is customary to think that the state. Yes, not really.

Indeed, the Russian Federation is the ultimate beneficiary of a 69.5% stake in Rosneft, but technically this stake belongs to OJSC Rosneftegaz (now it is 100% state-owned). Of course, the money from the transaction, which ended up on the balance sheet of Rosneftegaz, can be transferred to the budget in accordance with the decision of the government. But they can be used in other ways.

There is a precedent. As follows from the reporting of Rosneftegaz, last year the company paid more than 17 billion rubles for a minority stake in Inter RAO, one of the country's largest power generating companies. This is all part of the mission of Igor Sechin, who sees himself as a collector of state assets not only in the oil industry, but also in the energy sector in general. Incidentally, the "liberal" bloc of the government, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who officially oversees the energy sector, actively fought against the scenario of turning privatization into a process of buying out some state-owned companies by others.

Now everything can turn out to be even more interesting if the money from the sale of Rosneft is received not by the budget, but by Rosneft itself.

Technically, this is done simply: it will be enough for Rosneftegaz to invest the received billions in bonds of a state-owned company. The argument can be ironclad in Sechin's way: if you do not want to give me the entire National Wealth Fund, then at least my money from the sale of my company is on the table. You know, I have a debt of $45 billion, at the current rate - 2.5 trillion. Your budget is in the black from the devaluation, but for me it's a nightmare. And I fell under the sanctions, I am responsible for the entire state. Do you know how much I pay in taxes? "Gazprom" for the Chinese pipeline taxes for 15 years were canceled, but the strength of Siberia - it is in oil too!

Another version of the reasons for the intensification of the process of selling Rosneft can be put forward if you think about who can become a buyer . Western companies disappear due to sanctions - there is a direct ban. Russian investors have no money on the open market either.

Remain, as usual, the Chinese.

They just have a lot of money, and they are always ready to take advantage of the weakness of a partner who is in a difficult situation. Moreover, Rosneft is firmly on the Chinese hook. Last year, it borrowed $30 billion from Western banks to buy TNK and immediately signed a contract with the Chinese CNPC, according to which it was supposed to receive about $70 billion in advance payments for oil supplies, including $30 billion by 2015. But all this was at an oil price above $100 per barrel. Now, the Chinese comrades could well have hinted at the need to revise the parameters of the deal, and the opportunity to buy a part of Rosneft at a bargain price could well become part of the behind-the-scenes negotiations.