Finns between Putin and NATO

In connection with the aggressive actions of Russia in Finland, they seriously thought about joining NATO

Finland and Sweden were always interested in NATO for obvious reasons - it is enough to see what a profitable geopolitical position these countries occupy. However, the peaceful Finns and Swedes, proud of their neutrality, was by no means seduced by the idea of membership in a military alliance. Everything has changed with the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine - both in Finland and Sweden are now actively conducting debates about national security and the possible accession of these two countries to the NATO bloc. The first part of our review is dedicated to Finland.

The history of the Russian-Finnish relations of modern times was not easy to put it mildly. Since the release of the Russian Empire in 1917, Finland has entered the war with the successor of the former metropolis several times - Soviet Russia, and later - the USSR. However, the desire to measure with the eastern neighbor at the Finns finally disappeared after the Second World War: on February 10, 1947, a peace treaty was signed in Paris, which cost the former ally of Nazi Germany huge reparations and lost territories.

The lesson was extracted from the defeats: starting from the post -war years, the official Helsinki invariably demonstrated emphasized peacefulness towards the USSR, observing neutrality and recognizing the strategic interests of Moscow. The political line of the presidents of Yukho Paasikivi and Urho Kekkonen , which included textbooks called “Finlandization”, had its fruits: Finland managed to maintain sovereignty and parliamentary democracy, as well as avoid the Sovietization of the economy in the spirit of Eastern Europe. Remaining part of the Western world, Finland has established a large -scale economic barter with the USSR, supplying textiles, machines and ships for the "iron curtain", in return, receiving raw materials and mineral resources to the cheap. Thus, the Finnish economy was subsidized: for example, the price of oil coming from the USSR to Finland was on average 10 percent lower than the market.

Finnish machine gun calculation during the "Winter War" with the USSR (1939-40)

The collapse of the Soviet Union did not change the policy of good neighborliness: in 1991, Moscow and Helsinki renegotted the treaty, cooperation and mutual assistance, in which they pledged not to provide their territory for armed aggression against the other side and not provide military assistance to the aggressor. However, the entry of Finland into the European Union four years later, in fact, meant some departure from the neutrality: the Finnish foreign policy was now consistent with Brussels, and the army of this country sent its peacekeepers to Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan in the framework of partner cooperation with NATO. But the Finns did not cross the red line - the non -block status of Finland remained unchanged. The reason is the same unwillingness of the Finns to spoil relations with the eastern neighbor. After all, the border of Russia with Finland, with a length of 1300 km, is considered very calm and stable, the movement of people and goods through it is very lively. Over the past year alone, visitors from Russia spent 1.21 billion euros in Finland.

Russian combat aircraft in the Finnish sky appeared on May 21, as well as three times within one week on the 20th of August

But the Crimean crisis at once mixed all the cards - in Finland again looked anxiously east. And not without reason: this year, cases of violation of Russian Air Force Air Force Air Force of the Baltic region of the Baltic Region have sharply frequent. According to the Finnish Ministry of Defense, Russian combat aircraft in the Finnish sky appeared on May 21, as well as three times within one week on the 20th of August. But, even despite the fact that the Finnish military man in one of the cases managed to photograph the tank plane (they turned out to be the “transporter” of the Russian border troops An-72), Helsinki decided not to aggravate relations with Moscow, stopping the investigation of the incident and limiting himself to the attendant rhetoric on the unacceptability of such actions.

This is how the Foreign Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland Erkki Tuomioy comments in an interview with the newspaper The Washington Post :

Foreign Minister Finland Erkki Tuomioy

-Finland and Russia have 1300 kilometers of the general border-stable and without any serious problems. I think the Russians would like to preserve this status for so long until there will be any reason to believe that the territory of Finland can be used to conduct hostile actions. Of course, the current incidents are the signals of power policy. Russia has a powerful army, nuclear weapons. But one cannot but admit that the military potential of today's Russia is far from what was in Soviet times, ”said the head of the foreign policy department of Finland, Erkka Tuomioy.

The Russian game with muscles, however, affected the moods of Finnish society. According to the TaloStutkimus analytical Institute , if in March the Russian threat considered only every fourth Finn, today there are almost half - 43 percent, and among leaders of different levels, this figure reaches 70 percent.

These fears nevertheless do not force the Finns to imbue great confidence in NATO. Citizens still believe that Finland should independently make military-political decisions. Sociological surveys show that 57 percent of the inhabitants of this country are opposed to membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, 26 percent, and 17 percent did not decide on the answer. This picture is quite consistent with the moods of the Finnish political environment - in all leading parties there are supporters and opponents of rapprochement with NATO. Perhaps the most capacious situation is conveyed by the words of the Prime Minister of Finland Alexander Stubba in an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel :

Finland Prime Minister Alexander Stubb

- We should join NATO back in 1995, when we were admitted to the European Union. However, we are now highly satisfied with the close partnership that we support with the North Atlantic Alliance, even if purely formally we do not have security guarantees in case of attack. Although this topic is very concerned about us, at the moment I do not see a wide majority that would have advocated for Finland’s quick entry into NATO, ”the head of the Finnish government notes.

In the spring of 2015, Finland will be held in parliament . However, contrary to the forecasts of some experts, the issue of joining NATO will not be the main thing in the election debate, the Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioya is sure:

I do not think that the upcoming elections will become NATO elections, since no party is interested in this

- In Finnish discussions about NATO, a kind of polarization of opinions occurred. The aggravation of the situation in the world led to the fact that the positions of both supporters and opponents of the alliance became stronger. But I do not think that the upcoming elections will become “NATO elections”, since no party is interested in this. The Finnish conservatives and the party of the Swedish minority are hot supporters of membership in the alliance, but the electorate is against, so even they will not raise this topic. And in the same way, we, Social Democrats, will not make any initiatives on this issue, ”says Foreign Minister of Finland Erkka Tuomioy.

However, despite all the moderation and peacefulness expressed by Finnish politicians, Russia sending combat aircraft to the airspace of neighbors - obviously, with the aim of probing the combat readiness of the Finnish air defense - it is unlikely that the Finnish side can be regarded otherwise than the tactics of intimidation. And this can lead to the development of events in the least desired direction for Russia. The first steps have already been taken: on September 5, at the NATO summit in Wales, Finland signed an agreement giving troops to quickly respond the North Atlantic Union the right to be and move around the country during various kinds of operations. Although Finnish politicians assure that the signed document is framed, and the parties do not take on full -fledged allied obligations, this may become a prelude to the possible entry of Finland to NATO. Now it all depends on what tactics Moscow will choose - whether it will continue the power demarches or return to the balanced diplomatic dialogue. While in Finland they believe that you can agree. Otherwise, the NATO block in the coming years will be replenished with another state.