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The ruble went on the last journey
Financial analyst Stepan Demura predicts a further decline in the Russian currency, the collapse of the economy and the entire state
The Moscow financial analyst Stepan Demura, unlike many experts, warned of the upcoming collapse of the Russian economy, falling and oil prices, and ruble. Now Stepan Demura says that a revolutionary situation has matured in Russia, the country's strength has been exhausted, but there will be no peaceful "color revolution", but bloody events are coming. In the meantime, the ruble will fall further.
Financial analyst Stepan Demura predicts a further decline in the Russian currency, the collapse of the economy and the entire state
- How do you explain your prognostic talent - this is intuition, is this experience?
- There is no talent, there is no intuition. You just need to understand how markets and economics work. There is a tool for analyzing the market, these are the waves of the Elliot, they have been working well, as I have been demonstrating since the mid-2000s, and Robert Proter has been using it since the late 1970s and has been making very big money on this. Roughly speaking, this is the theory of behavior of the crowd, the so -called sociodynamics. The crowd is characterized by delusions or mania. The markets from the point of view of the crowd are absolutely illogical. The modern economy is built on the fact that all investors are rational objects, that is, all their actions are rational: based on the information that they possess, they make rational decisions. So a crowd or economic agents behave irrationally, and therefore the whole modern economy is a ridiculous science. The Austrians von Mizes and von Hayek talked about the irrational behavior of the crowd. They used this in their theories of a business cycle. But since these are absolutely non -haired things in the modern economy, no one is engaged in them, and they are under the taboo.
- You predicted the collapse of the ruble, and now the most pessimistic forecasts are heard: for example, on the air of the Rain channel, dumbfounding the host of the program, the director of the Finams Nikolai Solabuto , the dollar would cost 200 rubles by March. Support his forecast?
- 200 the goal is not worth it yet. The only thing I can say: the bottom ruble does not have no technical and fundamental reasons. Now the ruble has gone on his last journey. Of course, there will be significant corrections for 10, 7 rubles per dollar, but the direction is global for this trend only down. As for the two hundred, I’m joking differently that we can calmly see the situation when both oil is 150 and the ruble 150. The reason is very simple that the oilfield services market, and this is maintenance of producing wells, exploration, drilling, and occupies about 80%in Russia. There were 4 large companies, now Halliburton bought Hughes, almost 3 remained, they occupy 80% of the market, and they are under sanctions. And already a hot discussion in the Russian government, what they will do with their production facilities - to sell them, close them and the like. A sharp reduction in production and, accordingly, oil exports, will simply begin. Therefore, oil can cost 150, and the foreign exchange earnings to the country's budget will be much less. Of course, oil growth will begin, and the supply in the oil market will begin to contract from Russia for these reasons: accordingly, we can see the growth of oil and the further drop in the ruble.
- Now the links of analysts made on social networks are shaken on social networks, which Russians said that they do not need to buy a dollar for 35 rubles, because the ruble will certainly grow . What to do to the townsfolk, who then believed these forecasts, did not buy anything and still hesitate, do not know whether to change or wait for the ruble to grow?
Western strategists underestimate the level of manipulations of public opinion and consciousness in Russia
- The layman is actually the fate is unenviable, since more than 90% of the market participants lose money. Therefore, no matter what the layman does, he will lose money sooner or later. Even if now tell the layman that the ruble has no bottom, buy dollars and do not pay attention to the temporary strengthening of the ruble, it may go and buy dollars, but then, when the ruble will strengthen 5-7 rubles to the dollar, he will deceive this advice and go to their dollars 7 rubles cheaper and, of course, after that the rate will turn around, and again the ruble will begin to fall. Therefore, it is useless to give advice to people here, they will still do the opposite.
- Putin in his appeal threatened the currency speculators and, apparently, hoped to stop the fall of the ruble. Naturally, he received the opposite effect right during his performance - the ruble immediately crawled down.
- Even at the beginning of the week I wrote on the blog, I laughed: " Where is Nabiullina? They either fell asleep at the helm, or she had not beaten the oars on her head for a long time - she rocks the boat." Of course, the Central Bank came out, began to do some interventions to stabilize the course. Just at the time of Putin’s performance , if you go into a technical analysis, the ruble fell, the ruble correction began, the correction has practically exhausted itself, there were divergence on five -minute schedules, and the ruble had to start a small next slalom, which happened. And Putin’s performance ... events coincided, it happens.
- Now almost seriously in the Duma is offered to conduct a ruble denomination only for the sake of a psychological effect so that the euro is not 60 rubles, but 6. It seems that this is a sign of complete panic?
Fools give orders, fools fulfill them, what we get at the exit - an absurdity full of absurdity. Putin did not have any strategy
- I call the Duma a state department, because their initiatives would be ridiculous if they were not so scary. It is impossible to seriously consider their statements or presidential speeches, because, in my opinion, they work mainly on the domestic market, on the domestic consumer, on the so -called great Russian world and are of the Balabol character. Well, they put it, they will not do anything anyway, or they will do the opposite. There are a lot of examples of this, take at least a promise of taxes of taxes for small and medium -sized businesses, which were both a year and two ago. It’s like going in a madhouse and seriously analyze the statements of the inhabitants. They mean nothing. Yes, it looks ridiculous from the outside, you can laugh at it, but if you think that these are the so -called people's deputies, the legislative branch, then it becomes very sad.
- As for the statement of the former prime minister, and now the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Fradkov, who said that the collapse of the ruble is the actions of the dark forces in the West, the United States, investment funds that are specifically engaged in speculation, are these also statements from the madhouse?
Now the mass exit from ruble bonds will begin, and there is no currency to maintain the ruble
- No, here is not only from the madhouse. Fradkova would like to do a little more upset that large players, large speculators have not yet begun to leave the ruble. The main blow to the ruble from the despicable speculators in 2008-2009 came from the part of the funds that invested in Russian actions: there was a powerful outflow , in my opinion, one and a half billion was gone. Now the main blow, and he is just starting to get out, from the part of the funds investing in ruble bonds that took cheap money in the west in the currency at low interest rates, converted them into rubles, bought both state and corporate bonds of ruble and, accordingly, for these "two princes ", as we say new cool ones here, and lived. Now, according to my estimates and, according to the Central Bank, about 60-66 billion dollars are the first. Second: you need to understand the differences in psychology between funds and managers, which are invested in bonds and in the action. For managing funds, drawing in 10 or 15% - this is already like death, they begin a nervous tick. So, if we take the dynamics of ruble corporate blue chips and government bonds and impose losses, ruble risk on this dynamics, because they have a currency balance - either a dollar or the euro, we will find that even with accumulated income over the past two years, they now crossed a line of 15-20% of the drawdown. That is, now the mass exit from ruble bonds will begin, it just begins. The Central Bank has money to maintain the ruble exchange rate, according to my estimates, somewhere from 30 to 60 billion dollars in total, according to other estimates, it turns out from 40 to 100, that is, there is no currency to maintain the ruble. And this will really be a powerful blow from the so -called despicable speculators, and this blow has not yet begun.
- Is it possible to expect a blow on the other hand - the shutdown of SWIFT ? You know the statements of the head of VTB Kostin, who said that this would mean a declaration of war, and the ambassador of the United States will have to leave the country on the same day. A premonition of such a sanction is quite serious. Will the West decide on this?
The Maidan is impossible here, there will be Tahrir. It will happen sooner or later, because there is a revolutionary situation in the country, and it only exacerbates
- It's hard to say. I will not invent anything here - I will leave the artists of the conversational genre, all kinds of political scientists. And I have such a bad habit of reading the Brzezinsky columns and his performances, since I lived in the States for 12 years, I know English well, even with Brzezinsky met university corporate parties a couple of times. At the very beginning of what is happening, he wrote that Western leaders need to make it clear to Mr. Putin and his closest environment, that the price for their actions will be very high for them personally. Indeed, at first there was a list of the nearest circle of Putin that fell under sanctions. Firtash flew, they immediatelytook him , twisted it, now, apparently, he began to testify, hoping for a deal with the investigation, with the FBI. But this did not work on them, there was no change in foreign policy and politics in relation to Ukraine. Brzezinsky was then a little disappointed, wrote that the only thing that still supports Putin in his course was popular love. So, we will beat the people. And then the most powerful sanctions went , which are beaten not in the circle of Putin, but in the economy as a whole. This is the cut of all the western capital markets, this is work with the Chinese, which was very successful so that if they did not join the sanctions, then at least not violating them. This is work with Europeans, because that there is a sin to hide, Europeans neither fish nor meat, only now they have excelled. The Americans, apparently, were very clearly and intelligibly explained what they deal with. But this takes time. And only now there is a certain confidence that sanctions are really working. They have not yet led to a change in Putin’s course, slightly slowed down the escalation of the situation, but so far they have not changed anything. What will be the next step? Well, you disconnect Russia from the Swift system - this will be a very quick painful blow, at one time such a blow was inflicted on Iran. But not fatal. Because Western strategists (there are practically no, in my opinion, with the exception of Brzezinsky), they underestimate what is happening in Russia, underestimate the level of manipulations by public opinion and the consciousness that occurs here. All this will be explained by the people with the intrigues of the damned West, which hates the great Russian world for its high spirituality, something like that will be on Channel One there. Therefore, this, too, probably will not lead to a change in Putin's foreign policy. But the gradual strengthening of existing sanctions in the field of mining, exploration of fossils, the banking sector will sooner or later lead to the desired results. Because the connection between the fool and the refrigerator cannot be established.
- Russian businessmen are furious. In the Pushkin restaurant, there are now conversations such as at some collection of the Solidarity movement four years ago. Can the indignation of the businessmen whom Crimea ruined or ruins, lead to the riot of the rich against officials, against Putin, or is it a completely unreal scenario?
- Everyone is corrupt, tied, almost all have folders, and they are terribly cowardly. Yes, they can say something, but when it comes to business, they are not capable of anything. This is not the contingent that is able to do anything, change the situation.
-There is a curious version, it was expressed on our air by the American financial analyst Vitaly Katsenelson that the Ukrainian adventure of the Kremlin was given due to the fact that Putin felt the upcoming economic disaster and a drop in oil prices and thus decided to divert attention. Does it sound too beautiful or maybe true?
In Russia, Putin's hands has been created over the past 10 years, a revolutionary situation, when the lower classes do not want, the tops cannot
- It sounds too beautiful. Most experts, analysts, and in general politicians are now refusing to admit to themselves in one simple fact. What is the management system in Russia, countries, as a holistic organism, where there is a management system called the vertical of power or the Politburo-2? Nothing of the kind, I call the DGA system - fools, fools, absurdity. Fools give orders, fools fulfill them, what we get at the exit - an absurdity full of absurdity. Putin did not have any strategy. All his tactics are very simple, comes down to the following: to do something, look at the reaction. If I got very painful, we go in a different direction. If it seems to be painful, but not so much hit, well, we will crush further in this direction. That's all. And there are some kind of conclusions that last more than half a member - this is not his horse and not the horse of his environment, in my opinion. Crimea was planned, maybe before, because the Kremlin does not perceive Ukraine as a kind of independent or viable country. For example, the banners of the so-called inexpensive or Lugandonia were lit up at all sorts of gatherings at Seliger in 2011 and in 2012, so some part of this was prepared. But the annexation or occupation of Crimea, I think, was Putin's spontaneous decision, because just completely similar to him, just one into one similar, flew in some two months. What to do? When such an ass in the country, it means we need to talk about patriotism that we are great, that we get up from the knees and, of course, while there are bread and spectacles, we need to throw the people another sight. So they threw it. What happened to Putin's rating? He took off to heaven. Therefore, this tactical move worked, and this was calculated. Although the consequences, I think, was absolutely not calculated. Georgia got away with them, they thought that Crimea would get away with. If the Americans had not intervened here, if Putin had not climbed to the east of Ukraine, I think that Europeans of Crimea would have forgiven him too. Courage, elaborated, but Crimea would be forgiven. But everything went too far.
- We talked about what to do to the townsfolk who were afraid to change the rubles, and what to do people, let's say, “thinking”? I see in my friends: people who have not even thought about emigration have not yet been talked about now, now they don’t even talk about anything else. I know that you also advised to leave Russia in your public speeches?
- Yes, I don’t see another way at the moment. I said that if by the end of 2014 pogroms do not begin in Russia, then I am leaving the country. They did not begin, the people again gang it this dish prepared by Kremlin propagandists. And I get the impression that the country is close to passing the point of non-return, after which it will cease to be a country that has some future.
-You mentioned Iran, there is a similar situation: the sanctions are the widest, and Swift turned off, and yet, the Iranian revolution has not chopped, the power has not changed, now the sanctions are slowly lifting, some kind of “stability” is established for many years. Can everything end in Russia in Russia? Or can not be compared?
Sanctions just highlighted the ugliness of the state machine
- No, why, you can. Only, you see, the Iranians still had an ideological margin of strength, they are still Muslims. In Russia, there is no strength for this reserve. In Russia now there is the only margin of strength from an ideological point of view - this is that a significant part of the population suddenly united against a common enemy. For some reason, the people are always united against the enemy. Just unite, to do something useful for the country does not work. Here with the enemy - yes. Moreover, the enemy was chosen very successfully: as always, he is far away there, he is large and scary, his actions can be seen on his refrigerator, but he is far away, such an incomprehensible abstract enemy. And all, there are no other ideological bonds, ideology in the country is completely absent. Therefore, the whole question is how long and deep the sanctions are. Because in Iran, due to the ideological stock of strength, there was no collapse of institutions of power and social institutions. In Iran, corruption is not the worst and largest in the world. In Russia, there is no management system, it comes down to DGA - fools, fools, absurdity. Corruption is ubiquitous, it just struck how cancer, the state, the state machine is not capable of anything. The stratification of income is terrible. Поэтому в России создана руками Путина за последние 10 лет революционная ситуация, когда низы не хотят, верхи не могут. Более того, в России нет никаких практически политических свобод, поэтому, как правильно заметил тот же Путин, Майдан в России невозможен. Я с ним согласен, Майдан, то есть бескровная революция здесь невозможна. Если вы посмотрите на все эти "цветные революции", то они были удачными в странах, где были относительные политические свободы, где действительно была не смешная кремлевская оппозиция. Где-то они приносили свои результаты, где-то нет. Здесь это невозможно. То есть если здесь невозможен Майдан, то здесь будет Тахрир . Он случится рано или поздно, потому что революционная ситуация в стране есть, и она только усугубляется. На мой взгляд, санкции не первопричина и ухудшения экономической ситуации, и всего, что происходит. Экономика на самом деле начала сыпаться в 2012 году, рубль, если бы не упал в 2014 году, упал бы в 2015 году. Просто у каждой системы есть предел прочности и есть предел износа, когда она начинает ломаться и разрушаться. На мой взгляд, эти пределы в России уже пройдены, и санкции всего лишь подсветили всю уродливость государственной машины, государственной структуры, которая есть в России. Поэтому мирного пути здесь не будет, к сожалению.
Степан Демура начал карьеру в начале 90-х в США. Он получил известность за заблаговременное предсказание американского ипотечного кризиса. В эфире РБК ТВ вел передачи "Рынки", "Диалог", на радиостанции Финам-ФМ – программу "Парадокс".
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Финансовый аналитик Степан Демура предсказывает дальнейшее падение российской валюты, крах экономики и всего государства
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