Fear of cheap oil

There are no reasons for the growth of oil price - such a withdrawal of investment analysts led to its next fall

The drop in oil prices can be much more prolonged than market players and many oil manufacturers suggest. On Monday, on the New York Modern Exchange, oil prices decreased by another four percent-to $ 63 per barrel.

On Monday, Wall Street traders received a whole set of news, each of which could become a reason for selling oil purchase contracts. Together, this news caused a new panic attack and a drop in oil prices to the lowest level over five years. Under the pressure of negative sentiments and in an exchange game on a decrease, the price of a barrel of Texas oil can fall below $ 60 in the coming days.

OPEC countries do not send signals that they are ready to support oil prices

The first unpleasant news was the forecast of the Morgan Stanley investment bank, which was published on Friday after the closing of trading on the exchange. Analysts of a respectable financial company suggest that the average oil price next year will be only $ 70 per barrel, which is $ 28 below their previous forecast. And this, in general, with the best version of the conjunctural situation for oil producers in 2015. In the worst case, oil can cheaper up to $ 43.

"In conditions when OPEC continues to be on the sidelines, the most serious threat has hung over the oil prices," Morgan Stanley analysts write in their report. They predict the continuation of the drop in oil prices in the first half of the next year until stable low prices lead to a reduction in oil production or the intervention of OPEC countries into the pricing process, which can help break the negative price trend in the second half of 2015.

The reason is the mood of traders trying to disrupt profit in the game to reduce the price

The second unpleasant revelation was the public recognition of Nizar al-Adsani, the head of the state oil company Kuwait, is that the price of oil will not rise above $ 65 per barrel, at least six months. Moreover, for its rise, either actions from OPEC, or a tangible improvement of the economic situation in the world and an increase in energy demand, will be required.

As it became clear on Monday, it is not necessary to count on economic growth in the Asian region, which had recently seemed promising. According to statistics, published on Monday, the Japanese economy experienced an almost two percent decline in the third quarter, while the growth of Chinese exports slowed down more than analysts predicted, and imports fell.

Market players who turned out to be hostages of macroeconomic processes had no choice but attempts to interpret the market information available to them in the hope of predicting oil behavior in the near future. But this information also gives grounds for the exact opposite interpretation of price trends, which the analyst of the information service Bloomberg Set Bauer is talking about:

The low oil price promises new difficulties for those developing countries that rely on oil export

- The falling price is not a new plot, the surprise was the strengthening of this trend. Its reason is the mood of traders trying to disrupt profit in the game to reduce the price. At the same time, interest in the buying of oil by investors, counting on profit in the long run, becomes noticeable. For example, American investors began to move money to funds investing in oil, which is usually a harbinger of oil price growth. At the same time, if we look at the behavior of futures, they continue to indicate that the supply of oil prevails over demand.

Adolfo Laurenti, the managing director of Mesirow Financial, is one of those influential analysts who believe that relatively low oil prices can turn into a long -term trend that can have a favorable effect on the economy of Western countries. Adolfo Laurenti spoke about this in an interview with CNBC:

American investors began to move money to funds investing in oil, which is usually a harbinger of an increase in oil prices

- There are many reasons to be extremely careful about the prospects of oil prices. Since the difficulties experienced by Europe are obvious, there are serious issues regarding the level of economic growth in China, problems in Japan are again manifested. All this gives reason to assume that the demand for energy resources will remain weak. OPEC countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, do not send any signals that they are ready to support oil prices. All this gives grounds for forecasts that oil prices will remain at a level close to the present during the next year. On the other hand, cheap oil is good news, primarily for the United States, where it will contribute to the growth of consumption. And also, to a lesser extent, it is good news for Europe, China and Japan. But, of course, the low oil price promises new difficulties for those developing countries that rely on oil export to finance the state budget. We are talking about countries such as Nigeria, Mexico and, of course, some countries of the Middle East