In China, the risks of the devaluation of the Russian currency are calculated

The Kremlin’s hopes to use the ruble in international trade and thereby weakening the influence of the dollar may not be justified: the Chinese economists on the website of the official printing authority of the PRC "Jenmin Zhibao" called the ruble too unstable and risky currency for international calculations.

Chinese analysts doubt the reliability of the Russian currency: “The Central Bank of Russia is very difficult to turn the trend of reducing the ruble rate alone. The market forces are huge, and this forced confrontation will only accelerate the consumption of the Central Bank currency reserves,” the analyst of state risks and loans of Lee Khaishan quotes.

The ruble brings problems not only to the Russian economy, but also by the Chinese one. "The fast devaluation of the ruble entails the huge risks of the foreign exchange rate for Chinese export enterprises, especially for those who signed contracts with the ruble as a calculated currency," says Haishan. True, as he clarifies, the share of ruble calculations in trade between Russia and China is still relatively small.

Calculations with Russia in dollars or yuan also do not seem safe to Chinese partners now. As Lee Haishan says, "for enterprises that signed agreements with the US dollar or Yuan as a settlement currency, the ruble devaluation can increase the risk of violation of the contract."

The Chinese side fears that Russia will not be able to fulfill the obligations taken due to economic instability and absolute lack of non-resistance of the dumplings of the national currency.

"Devalvation can lower the status and attractiveness of the ruble in Sino -Russian calculations, at the same time it can increase the cost of imported goods for Russia, which will adversely affect export from China to Russia," Haishan concludes.

Such doubts of Chinese partners can be an unpleasant surprise for the Russian authorities. After all, the worse the relations of Russia with the West became, the more often President Vladimir Putin spoke of the need to switch to mutual statements in national currencies with countries that did not support anti -Russian sanctions. And the main bet was made by Russian authorities precisely on China.

According to the experts interviewed by the "independent newspaper" , Chinese partners really have a reason for concern. “Over the past five and a half months, the Russian currency has lost about 40%in price . It is natural that Beijing is concerned about the exchange rate risks when working with the ruble,” says Aleksey Kozlov, chief UFS analyst. However, as the expert clarifies, the most likely currency in the calculations between Russia and China is Yuan.

Anna Kokoreva, analyst at Alpari, believes that the Chinese fears regarding the devaluation of the ruble are justified only with mutual settlements in the yuan: “The Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the People’s Bank of China have concluded an agreement according to which the yuan’s purchase for settlements will take place directly from the NBK at a fixed rate. Since the bank will lose the return of the ruble.”

The deputy law of Loko-Bank Andrei Lyushin believes that now more and more agreements between the Russian Federation and the PRC will most likely be concluded exclusively in dollars, while the Chinese can request more guarantees in case of lack of currency in Russia. Otherwise, if the calculations are in rubles, the contracts would have to be constantly reviewed.