Oil: there will be no price rise

The Russian economy has become a victim of the Kremlin’s historical self -deception: there is no need to count on improving the situation

Did the relatively low oil prices turn into a new reality? Who is Saudi Arabia trying to besiege? Was the Kremlin a victim of its own oil illusions?

We are discussing these issues with Richard Ebeling , Professor of the College "Citadel" in South Carolin, Mikhail Burnstam , a professor of economics, and Yuri Yarym-Agaev , a financial analyst, employees of the Giverov Institute in California.

On Friday, oil prices on the New York commodity exchange set the next anti-record. On their way down, they fell below the mark of sixty dollars. The price of the so-called West-Tekhas oil decreased to fifty-seven and a half dollars. This means that the price of oil rolled away for five years. Moreover, the results of a long difficult increase in oil prices, which collapsed to forty dollars per barrel during the financial crisis of 2008, were crossed out in just five months. Since July of this year, oil has fallen in more than forty percent. In the context of the concepts of financial markets, such a fall means the complete surrender of optimists and the insignificant probability of returning prices to the previous level.

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This collapse caused many, including professionals. According to the press , even some leading oil concerns in the world are forced to reckon with the new reality. For example, they revise plans for the development of costly northern and deep -sea deposits, because in the new conditions they do not have an incentive to produce expensive oil. Not everyone is ready to recognize the existence of what some analysts already call a new paradigm - a long period of low oil prices - but, as my interlocutors say, this option for the development of the situation is most likely.

Here is how the unexpected for many, a strange, very sharp drop in oil prices, Professor Richard Ebeling from the college "Citadel" in South Carolina:

In the context of the concepts of financial markets, this fall means the complete surrender of optimists and the insignificant probability of returning prices to the previous level

- I do not think that this fall looks too strange in the context of numerous predictions of analysts that the development of new drilling technologies that allow you to extract oil and gas from shale deposits, the presence of such deposits in fact around the world will ultimately lead to a sharp increase in the production and proposal of oil and gas, primarily in North America. In my opinion, if we talk about surprises, then the efficiency was the surprise with which oil and gas miners introduced new technologies and ensured the supply of this raw materials to the market. To this, it is necessary to add a brutal global recession, which undermined the level of growth of the world economy, and therefore the demand for energy resources. These factors led to a drop in oil prices. Of course, the intensity of the cost of oil - for forty percent in five months - was unexpected, but, given the objective trend, this fall should not be very amazing.

-Now such explanations are really believable, but only seven to eight years ago, forecasts were no less convincing that hydrocarbons could be exhausted for several decades, that is, energy prices will only go up. Why do current forecasts deserve more trust?

- Indeed, for decades, a number of economists and analysts have returned to life the idea that we have reached the limit, behind which the growth of the volume of explored and affordable oil deposits would be void. As a result, the demand for energy resources will significantly ahead of the offer with all unpleasant ensuing consequences. Oil prices are doomed to rise. But if we see what happened in reality, we will see that almost every decade new giant oil fields opened, which allowed to significantly expand its production. This experience suggests that there is no limit to the growth of hydrocarbons, at least in the foreseeable future. It is possible that, say, in five to ten years, new technologies will allow you to detect sources of oil and gas where it is impossible to present today.

- Does this mean that some governments, as, say, Russian, made a historical miscalculation, believing that the country's orientation towards the extraction of oil and gas is unbearable by definition. And some companies - both Russian and Chinese - made the largest mistake, buying the rights to oil production at very high prices?

There is no reason to think that we have reached the lower limit of the drop in oil prices and from now on oil prices will go up

- Yes, now, knowing what happened, we can accept such an interpretation. This, in fact, is evidence that governments are often unable to make the right decision in the field of entrepreneurship. Of course, we can witness short -term jumps in oil prices if, say, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies will decide to sharply reduce its production. But the macroeconomic situation is clearly not in favor of countries with a high cost of oil. As I said, given the stormy technological progress and slowdown in consumption, including thanks to the use of energy -saving technologies, there is no reason to think that we have reached the lower limit of the drop in oil prices and from now on oil prices will go upward.

-What , in your opinion, in such a situation, the likelihood that Moscow will be able, as they like to say in Russia, to jump off the oil needle?

- Given the structure of the control system, the level of corruption, political manipulation, such a goal in the current conditions looks unattainable. A completely simple example. The Russian government turned out to be an useless manager of the most important industry for itself - oil and gas. The lack of state investments in the industry and the lack of market competition among manufacturers led to infrastructure degradation and increasing the cost of Russian energy resources. It is hard to imagine that this situation will change. And it is very difficult to experience at least some optimism regarding the ability of the Russian authorities to create conditions for a turning economy from a model based on the export of natural resources to more balanced and diversified, ”says Richard Ebeling.

- Professor Bernshtam, your version of the causes of the crash of oil prices?

“ The most important thing is the largest and most long -term - this is the shale revolution in the United States and in North America as a whole,” says Mikhail Bernsstam . - America practically did not produce shale oil several years ago, now 4 million barrels per day are already being produced. Canada mines two million barrels per day from sand. This is the first. The second is just what has accelerated the process in the past few months, it is an increase in the dollar and, accordingly, the drop in oil. The third is the factor of Iraq. Because Iraq has finally restored not only his pre -war prey, but even increased and is now already mining 3.3 million barrels per day. The global oil market is oversaturated, the supply is 94 million barrels per day, demand is 93 million barrels per day. And in this situation, the proposal, of course, exceeds demand. And when this happened, the landslide process of falling oil prices began.

-Yuri Yarym-Agaev, why is this a collapsible process?

“ This is quite natural for the behavior of prices in the modern natural resources market,” says Yuri Yarym-Agaev . - The fact is that the price of natural resources is determined by two components, one more long -term, which can be called the economic component, and the second market component. The initial trend is created by the economic factors spoke about Mikhail. When the market has information and the feeling that the supply begins to exceed demand, a new trend arises, and due to a very effective and fast market that operates with all new tools, this trend is sharply accelerated, and this is what we see now.

- But from this explanation we can conclude that the collapse of oil prices is a large extent the result of herd behavior of market players, and the price accidentally fell below, let’s say, an objective level. Or is it impossible to talk about a certain objective level at all?

The price that is now-I looked at the schedule over the past 50 years-corresponds to a more or less average price of oil

“ No, the concept of an objective price does not exist at all, the price exists at every moment in time, it fluctuates quite much around some average values determined by the economy,” says Yuri Yarym-Agaev. “By the way, the price that is now,” I looked at the schedule over the past 50 years, “corresponds to a more or less average price of oil. So, on long -term scale, it is by no means so low, the prices fell much lower and the prices rose much higher. So this is wrong to say that today's price is determined by speculation. The fact that I said that even speculative market mechanisms allow us to rather quickly find those prices and reach those prices that are more consistent with the new economic conjuncture. But ultimately, it is this situation that determines oil prices.

-Professor Bernsstam, from your point of view, can be justified to talk about what the price of oil in the foreseeable future, say, for a month, year, two years, three years?

Saudi Arabia wants to weaken Iran, which is very dependent on the oil market, to some extent to weaken Russia as its competitor

-The fact is that very large changes have occurred recently, which, apparently, will also affect the future price of oil, and they still relate to conditionally, to the third factor, to the third component of the geopolitical. Namely, the fact that OPEC actually, according to many observers, broke up. In November, Saudi Arabia abandoned the previous tactics of manipulating oil supply in the world market in order to control the price. And this is due to the fact that Saudi Arabia wants to political Iran, which very much depends on the oil market, to some extent to weaken Russia as its competitor. The fact is that OPEC stably produces about 30 million barrels per day, once it was almost half of the entire world market, now the world market is over 90 million barrels per day, and OPEC produces only a third. He cannot significantly influence the entire world market, Saudi Arabia refused to do this, and, accordingly, many believe that the whole era, in which OPEC dominated the world market, ended. Moreover, now many have come to the conclusion that for the first time in 40 years, that is, from the time of the 1973 embargo, the free market has restored the oil market, and now demand and supply, market mechanisms and trading mechanisms that Yarym-Agaev spoke, and political processes, and economic deep processes, and the technological development of shale oil, all this will determine the free oil market.

- And this, from your point of view, means that real long -term oil prices can be even lower than the current level?

- Now we can only talk about forecasts. Expert agencies such as the Energy Information Agency of the Ministry of Energy of the United States make forecasts, ”says Mikhail Bernsstam. - Forecasts make the largest banks, they have an examination. And their forecasts are now in connection with the fall of oil prices are much faster than they manage to publish them. Less than a month ago, the United States Energy Information Agency suggested for 2015 that Brent, the oil brand, would cost $ 68 per barrel, now it is 64, and that West Tekhas oil, American raw oil, will be 63 dollars per barrel, now it is about $ 57. The Bank of OF America suggests that in 2015 the world oil price will fluctuate around $ 50 per barrel.

- The professor, however, you get away from the answer to the question. The question was relatively simple or not simple: it may turn out that the low oil price is, excuse me for the word, a new paradigm?

We must be prepared for the fact that relatively cheap oil in conditions of free markets, ceteris paribus, is what will happen in the future

- Yes, of course. The conditionally low oil price that we are talking about is what the future oil market is in the free market. Now there is a shale oil boom, now oil from oil sands, now the shale revolution in China is beginning. The price of production from this kind of non-traditional sources of oil falls very quickly, and now the cost of shale oil is about $ 55 per barrel on average, in any case in the United States, several more expensive in Mexico and South America. We must be prepared for the fact that relatively cheap oil in the conditions of free markets, ceteris paribus, is what will happen in the future.

- Professor Bernsstam does not begin to say what price could be at the cost of the coming months, years or two years. And you, Yuri Yarym Akaev, take to predict?

“ No, I won’t take it, and no one can do this.” If I could predict the price of oil, then I would be the richest person in the world. No one can do this, including those banks that Mikhail spoke of, in some of which I worked. We can talk about some trends, and this is reasonable, but you can not talk about any exact prices. I completely agree with Mikhail that the overall trend in connection with an increase in the supply and a decrease in demand will contribute to the fact that the price of oil will either fall or, at least, stay at today's level and is unlikely to grow.

- Will you risk concluding that from now on oil prices will be below for a long time?

“ It is impossible to speak forever, but for a long time I’ll risk for a long time, with the exception of the fact that in some separate moments, for geopolitical or other reasons, individual jumps can occur,” says Yuri Yarym-Agayev, “but it will most likely be short-term jumps and on average the price will last a rather low time.

- What, as the Americans say, most likely the good news for the American economy and for themselves, because gasoline prices have fallen by more than a quarter in recent months. Can Professor Bernsstam that the drop in oil prices will contribute to the growth of the American economy?

- For most countries of the world, low oil prices are extremely beneficial. Banking approximate calculations show that the drop in oil prices that occurred in recent months, that is, from about 110 dollars per barrel to the current 60, for the whole world, is tantamount to one trillion of dollars of stimulus. In this situation, of course, America, being an industrial country, being a technological country, wins very much, as all developing countries win, and the less developed, with the exception of Nigeria and others that depend on oil, the more they win. So for poor countries, for developing countries, cheap oil is the most favorable phenomenon.

-Yuri Yarym-Agaev, our interlocutor Mikhail Bernhett just diplomatically, I think, did not mention Russia among developing countries in the list next to Nigeria?

The idea that oil prices artificially reduces the whole world in order to make Russia badly is a purely Russian paranoia

- The first thing I wanted to say that Russia is in no way a factor in what is happening with the price of oil. The idea that oil prices artificially reduces the whole world in order to make Russia badly is purely Russian paranoia. In addition, this is a purely Soviet misconception that countries can strongly change oil prices for political purposes. This is a complete misunderstanding of the work of the free market, which we are talking about now.

- In this case, the following question: what can be the reckoning of Russia for this misunderstanding?

“ Russia will be large, because it completely made its entire economy dependent on the price of oil and gas,” says Yuri Yarym-Agayev. - Unlike America, in the Russian gross national product this makes up a giant share. Reducing oil prices immediately sharply reduces this gross national product, therefore, the country's economy and wealth. This is a fee for the complete irresponsibility of Russian politics, which actually turned its country into a playing country, which actually plays oil prices on the exchange, and the welfare of the people living in this country depends on where these prices are moving.

- Professor Bernsstam, how do you like such an interpretation of the situation in which Russia was a player whose bet was burned out?

- Let's compare the two countries for interest: Norway and Russia, neighboring countries, both are oil producers. What's happening? For one and another country, the world oil price falls. How do they react? Норвегия немедленно снижает процентные ставки Центрального банка, чтобы падение цены нефти не повлияло на экономический рост страны. Россия поднимает ставки наоборот, потому что Россия уже не думает об экономическом росте – это уже все прошло, Россия просто боится падения своей валюты. Норвегия, наоборот, не боится падения своей валюты, потому что это только увеличит возможности ее машиностроительного экспорта. Норвегия – страна технологически передовая, Россия страна отсталая, она эксплуатирует только природные ресурсы. Далее: в Норвегии бюджет может сводиться без дефицита даже при цене на нефть 40 долларов за баррель. России, для того, чтобы свести бюджет без дефицита, нужна мировая цена на нефть 98 долларов за баррель. Такой цены нет и такой цены в ближайшие годы не будет. Сейчас Центральный банк России предсказывает цену на нефть в будущем 80 долларов за баррель – это из области фантастики.

– Сейчас уже забыли, но, помнится, в начале нулевых годов Владимир Путин поставил официальной своей целью и официальной целью страны превратиться в ведущую энергетическую державу, всерьез, видимо, считая, что, будучи ведущим производителем энергоресурсов, Россия может жить и преуспевать. Юрий Ярым-Агаев, это была наивность, честное заблуждение или что-то другое?

Россия... не сумела разработать никаких современных методов, которые необходимы для разведки и разработки нефти новыми способами, например, той же сланцевой технологии

– Я думаю, что это была и наивность, и заблуждение, а проще говоря, безграмотность. Ибо, как мы уже говорили, российское руководство состоит из людей советской ментальности, которое вообще не понимает принципов работы рынка, считает, что цены на нефть можно определять каким-то волевым образом или с помощью центрального планирования или политических действий, соответственно, даже не пыталось, не имело какого-то механизма пытаться оценивать, что может происходить с ценами на нефть, исходя из рыночных условий. Я хочу сказать еще одну вещь, свидетельствующую, насколько примитивна российская экономика в данный момент. Ведь она не только является односекторной экономикой, но Россия, имеющая колоссальный технологический потенциал в смысле образованного населения, не только не создала альтернативных секторов в области высокой технологии, но даже внутри нефтяного и газового сектора она не сумела разработать никаких современных методов, которые необходимы для разведки и разработки новыми способами, например, той же сланцевой технологии. Ее в российских нефтяных компаниях в сущности нет ни для нефти, ни для газа. Одна из причин конфликта с Украиной заключалась в том, что, когда на Украине был обнаружен сланцевый газ, "Газпром" немедленно туда примчался и сказал, что он предлагает его разрабатывать. Проблема заключалась в том, что при всей симпатии Януковича к "Газпрому", у "Газпрома" не было никакой технологии разработки сланцевого газа. Поэтому даже промосковский Янукович вместо "Газпрома" подписал договоры с "Бритиш Петролеум" и с "Шевроном" на эти разработки, на что Москва обиделась, хотя в данном случае ей обижаться было точно не на что, потому что она просто не умела это сделать. Российская ситуация очень простая, они живут экономикой недоразвитой страны, имея при этом большие потенциалы, но эти потенциалы не могут развиваться до тех пор, пока в стране не будет политической и экономической свободы.

– Профессор Бернштам, вы привели прогноз Центрального банка России, ожидающего подъем цены нефти до восьмидесяти долларов за баррель, но вот совсем недавно президент Путин обещал производителям, нефть, кажется, за сто сорок долларов?

Очень опасно для страны, когда руководство страны, руководители экономической политики заблуждаются и теряют представление о том, что происходит в реальном мире, отрываются от реальности

– Очень опасно для страны, когда руководство страны, руководители экономической политики заблуждаются и теряют представление о том, что происходит в реальном мире, отрываются от реальности. Это ведет просто к неправильной стратегии, к неправильным планам, к неправильному сверстыванию бюджета. Надо смотреть на реальность. А реальность такова, что сейчас экспертные агентства предсказывают, что производство нефти в России будет сокращаться по той простой причине, что Россия, так же, как и Америка, является большой страной, и есть нефть дешевая, и есть нефть по стоимости производства очень дорогая. И в России, и в Америке в среднем производство нефти обходится в среднем 50-55 долларов за баррель. Но в России на Севере 75 долларов за баррель, есть места, где 80 долларов за баррель. Дешевая нефть – это нефть в Башкирии, нефть на юге Сибири. И вот эта дорогая нефть уже не будет окупаться и, таким образом, будет сокращаться производство нефти, кроме нагрузки на бюджет, еще и сокращение реального производства.

– Профессор Бернштам, вы говорите, что российская власть оторвалась от реальности. А могла она оторваться настолько, что не заметила угрозу надвигающегося дефолта. На днях датский инвестиционный банк Saxo в списке так называемых скандальных прогнозов под номером один предрекает дефолт России в 2015 году. Список, конечно, не совсем серьезный, но аргументы взяты из жизни: банк указывает на 134 миллиарда долларов, которые должны выплатить российские компании, плюс масса других непосильных в новых условиях для государства обязательств?

– Такое возможно не в 2015 году, но дальше возможно, вот почему. Это цифры задолженностей российских предприятий и банков западным банкам, и это результат санкций. Поскольку раньше западные банки все время рефинансировали российские долги и российские предприятия и банки могли обслуживать свои долги, сейчас они выше 30 миллиардов долларов должны выплатить по процентам, они не могут рефинансировать долги, значит, они должны соответственно еще в будущем году где-то 160 миллиардов долларов найти и расплатиться. В этой ситуации уже многие крупные российские предприятия, в том числе "Роснефть", обратились к правительству России с просьбой помочь им деньгами из стабилизационного фонда. Сочетание санкций и падающей цены на нефть действительно создает для России состояние глубокой задолженности, при которой обслуживание долга становится проблематичным.

– Юрий Ярым-Агаев, реален ли дефолт в России?

Дефолт вполне возможен, и это имеет очень драматические последствия для российского населения

– Дефолт вполне возможен, и это имеет очень драматические последствия для российского населения. То есть это, я бы сказал, двойной кризис. Который будет связан, с одной стороны, с невозможностью выплаты внешних долгов, а с другой стороны – с полным истощением российского бюджета и резким падением экономического производства внутри страны. Это даже хуже, чем дефолт, в какой-то степени то, что может произойти.

– Тем не менее, сейчас говорят о том, что американская экономика, возможно, возвращается к хорошему росту. Хороший рост американской экономики, рост экономический в мире, рост спроса, и Россия возвращается к жизни, апокалиптические прогнозы счастливо забыты. Профессор Бернштам, насколько вероятен такой вариант?

– Сейчас в Соединенных Штатах рост производства нефти опережает возможный экономический рост Соединенных Штатов. При этом при всех прогнозах в этой ситуации Соединенные Штаты все равно будут полагаться прежде всего на внутренние источники нефти, рост предложения нефти на мировых рынках не будет меньше, а будет скорее больше, чем рост мирового спроса, поэтому ожидать для России благоприятных каких-то тенденций не приходится.

– Юрий Ярым-Агаев, не будет удачи Кремлю в этот раз, как Владимиру Путину улыбнулась удача в нулевых годах?

– Думаю, что не будет. Ему повезло один раз, повезло вдвойне, потому что он получил высокие цены на нефть и дивиденды посткоммунистической экономики. Но эта лафа кончается. Это было чистое везение, которое в большой степени обеспечило его столь долгое правление, но это везение не может продолжаться бесконечно.