What did the Russian media write about most in the past year?

From an economic point of view, it is difficult to talk about 2014 as a whole. The first months of the year are absent from our ranking of economic events, as if the first quarter never happened. The May St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (7th line in the ranking) seemed to have happened not in the spring, but a long time ago. The closer we get to the end of the year, the more events there are. Statistics confirm what is visible to the naked eye at the everyday level. Oil fell, and so did the ruble. The rating is topped by the December decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to raise the key rate to 17%. The last line of the rating is the abolition of the currency corridor by the same Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which happened in November. Everyone knows what happened to the ruble during this month.*

In second place in the table is OPEC’s decision not to reduce oil production quotas. No less fateful decision than that of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but with the opposite (in relation to the ruble exchange rate) vector.

The third to fifth positions in the ranking are occupied by the events of the sanctions war – the EU against Russia, Russia against the EU, the USA against Russia.

What the authors of the Doing Business rating and Moody's and S&P think about the Russian economy and its health is, of course, important. But it’s not as important as the price of a barrel of oil and the ruble exchange rate.

December 16. The Central Bank raised the key rate to 17%.

The actual results of December 16, 2014 for the market were extremely varied and almost without exception negative. It was on this day that the market saw that the ruble was really in free-floating mode, the national currency (counting from the beginning of the year) had devalued multiple times, and the devaluation, together with the sharply raised refinancing rate, called into question the continuation of the operation of entire markets.

November 27. The decision of OPEC countries to leave oil production quotas unchanged.

OPEC's decision to maintain oil production quotas without changes significantly hit the price of oil and had a rebound effect on the Russian national currency. The price of European Urals and Brent oils has reached a four-year low, approaching $70 per barrel. And the dollar and euro rates reached new highs, coming close to the level of 50 rubles/$ and exceeding the level of 62 rubles/€, respectively. This result on the last working day of November allowed the Russian currency to end the month with a historically record weakening.

July 30. The introduction by the European Union of sanctions against Russian banks with state participation.

In general, the sanctions correspond to the declarations that were made in the last two weeks; only the list of state-owned banks that will be denied access to the European capital market has been clarified. No immediate problems are expected from the sanctions in any of the markets they affect. However, in general, they bring the chances of economic growth in Russia until the end of the year to zero and threaten a recession next year.

August 6. Russia's introduction of an embargo on food from a number of countries.

The list includes all vegetables and fruits, fish, milk and dairy products, pork, beef and poultry. The list is wider and stricter than expected, it affects exports worth about $10 billion; the White House unexpectedly retained the import of food from Ukraine, at least for now. The main question is how firm are the previously made promises of supplies to Russia of meat and poultry from South America, fruits and vegetables from Asia: without them, in 2014-2015, inflation will rise to no less than 8-9%.

July 30. The introduction of sectoral sanctions by the United States against Russia.

This time, VTB, Bank of Moscow and Rosselkhozbank were sanctioned. From now on, US citizens and companies are prohibited from providing loans to these banks and related legal entities for a period of more than 90 days. Restrictions have also been introduced in relation to the United Shipbuilding Corporation. All U.S. holdings of this entity (if any) are subject to seizure and U.S. persons and entities are prohibited from dealing with it. According to Washington, the leadership of the sanctioned structures is involved in the decisions taken by the Russian authorities on Ukraine.

October 18. Moody's downgrades Russia's rating from "Baa1" to "Baa2".

The downgrade of this rating may not be the end, but the beginning of a new round of downgrades in Russia's sovereign ratings; Moody's main argument - the weakness of the ruble with falling oil prices - may also be an argument for Standard & Poor's.

22nd of May. Opening of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

The new SPIEF session was distinguished by demonstrative down-to-earthness, lack of interest in traditional economic discussions, the final nationalization of the entire agenda and the continuation, despite economic uncertainty, of the development of Russian business in the same trend

25th of April. S&P agency downgrades Russia's rating from BBB to BBB-.

Among the main reasons are the high probability of the introduction of economic sanctions by Western countries in connection with Russia’s Ukrainian policy, as well as the ongoing outflow of capital and an almost complete stop in economic growth.

28 of October. Russia moves to 62nd place in the Doing Business ranking.

Russia rose two levels in the annual Doing Business 2015 ranking of the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and took 62nd place between Greece and Moldova

10th of November. Cancellation by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation of the currency corridor and regular interventions

On November 10, the Russian Central Bank canceled regular interventions and the bi-currency basket corridor, which was perceived by the market as an actual transition to a floating ruble exchange rate. True, the regulator still retained the right, if necessary, to enter the market to support the national currency.

*Events are ranked by their mention in the central Russian media (expressed as a percentage of the number of materials covering the event to the total number of materials for the selected period). The reporting period includes the day of the event and four weeks after it (except for events that occurred in late November - December). The measurements were carried out using the resources of the electronic library of the Integrum news agency (more than 4 thousand sources, including the central press, news agencies, television and radio companies).

Information center of the Kommersant Publishing House, Alexey Alekseev

Economic results of 2014