Shocked world

The outgoing 2014 did not solve a single problem - neither in the functioning of the world order, nor in overcoming the internal crisis of liberal democracy, nor in the development of Russia. Nevertheless, this year will inevitably go down in history as a year of a turning point. And not only because he interrupted the hibernation of the world community and returned the issues existential for the world to the agenda, which, as it suddenly turned out to be, were never resolved the twentieth century. It became clear that the institutions of the management of international relations (UN and the Council of Ministers) cannot respond to new challenges and their paralysis only generates new conflicts; The European Security System does not guarantee continuity stability; The West has lost its understanding of the normative measurement; Europe forgot where it goes; America, frightened by responsibility, tries to escape from the stage - and cannot (!), Which only enhances the impression of her powerlessness; Liberal democracy - as a system of values ​​- is demoralized; The war is returned as a tool for solving problems, but in forms that the international system does not know how to respond. The world was shocked by the suddenly obvious challenges, to which he cannot answer. But at least it became clear that it was time to get out of recent peace and hopes that humanity has entered the era of the Kantian “eternal world”. The world community saw that it was on board an airplane in the cabin of which there was no pilot. Therefore, you need to re -sit and build the rules of the game and mechanisms that would force world actors to follow these rules.

SCENERY

In the meantime, this is what world landscape unfolds before us.

First. The fall of the USSR in 1991 led to the end of the bipolar confrontation system and the end of the Cold War. But the Russian autocracy managed to revive and found a way to use the West in a different capacity - simulating Western values ​​and co -operating the Western establishment. Today, it is more difficult to confront the Kremlin demoralized liberal democracy, which has moved to a new survival strategy through the warfare tool. True, the new challenge to the West (rather, partly of it) is at least realized.

Second. The world community has to return not by 1991 and revise the axioms of the “end of history”, but by 1945, when the system of international administration was built, which today became an obstacle to the resolution of world conflicts. But in order to offer new world architecture, the West will have to form a collective political will. It cannot - the world will remain in a state of creeping Disorder, chaos, threatening liberal democracy.

Third. The annexation of Russia of Crimea and its war in Ukraine returned the ghosts of the twentieth century to the scene, which, I thought, were buried forever: not only a war as a means of solving internal problems, but also a revision of territorial borders, the struggle for the spheres of influence, finally, the formation of the “Weimar syndrome” in the country - to substantiate national revenansal as a means of self -preservation.

Fourth. Europe proved itself to be a political dwarf, which turned out to be shocked by what was happening. Under the threat - the greatest achievement of the West, its European normative project, that is, the system of values ​​developed by the continent on the blood and millions of those killed in the twentieth century. Europeans still were able to squeeze out a collective reaction to a new war. This is not the answer to the call. But I hope this is the beginning of the political revival of the European community.

Fifth. Germany woke up, trying to limit himself to finding comfortable well -being for a long time. Yes, it is still very difficult for the German establishment to get out of its classical partnership scheme with Russia “no matter what”, which there are a variety of explanations - from the Germans' feelings of guilt for 1941 before pragmatic calculation. But more importantly, in Germany, a request for a new policy against Russia is being formed - this time on the basis of deterring the Kremlin aggressiveness.

Sixth. America never managed to hide in the sink - no matter how this Obama wanted. It was found that the US flight from the role of the world regulator, with all the negative consequences of this role, in a situation where world architecture does not work, leads to strengthening the world chaos and facilitates the appearance of adventurous forces on the international scene, ready to undermine and so fragile global stability.

Consequences

Having made Russia an aggressor country, the Kremlin confirmed that the autocracy took the path of decline, since he could not survive further in peacetime. Most likely, the use of war as a tool for solving internal problems will accelerate the agony of the current regime. But its change can be a new way to extend the autocracy, whose base in Russia is wider than the base of the Putin regime.

Russia's attempts to appeal to the east (of course, primarily to China), trying to find a source there to get out of stagnation, may turn out to be another illusion. If you believe a serious Chinese experts, China is included in its timeless strip, when defects in the Chinese system can become a source of instability there. And just imagine what can happen if the decline of the Chinese system is added to the current chaos?!

This year was the year of the failure of the expert community - both Russian and Western. And not because it failed to predict the Ukrainian Maidan or the possibility of social shocks in other countries. Experts did not manage to connect the logic of the survival of the autocracy with the inevitability of his transition to external aggressiveness: with rare exceptions, experts are trying to explain the confrontation between Russia and the West, repeating the Kremlin mantras: the West and NATO, they say, did not respect Russia; The West wants to overthrow Putin; The war in Ukraine is the result of the expansion of Europe or the work of nationalists, etc. However, everything for the better - the new time requires the formation of a new generation of the expert community.

The Ukrainian Maidan became a manifestation of the crisis of the post -Soviet model, which in one form or another was strengthened in all (except the Baltic) of the post -Soviet space. Ukraine simply became the weakest link. It is worth waiting for new falls - this is only a matter of time. In the meantime, Russia is the main factor in the existence of the post -Soviet authoritarian international. But the Russian system has already used its last card in the struggle for survival - war. And even her partners in the International do not want to stay in the same way in the boat to infinity - they already strive to jump off.

The Kremlin, having started the war, actually eliminated the possibility of peaceful transformation in the country. The possibility of democratic development through the Pact of Pragmatists within the authorities with the opposition was also destroyed - the most successful scenario in other countries. Where do we have pragmatists who are not responsible for what is happening? Alas, the authorities itself pushes to the only scenario of change - street rebellion. And its consequences can be dramatic - both for society and for the authorities itself.

So, 2014 did not solve a single problem of development. But he did not guarantee the status quo. 2014 brought the world out of a drunken state and demonstrated that without returning to the idea of ​​freedom and dignity as coordinates (and for the west) the world cannot develop. We are now paying the price not for the current awakening, but for the previous long sleep.