The aggravation of political confrontation after the “people's gathering” in defense of Alexei Navalny may also affect economic policy

Alexey Kudrin expects protest activity to intensify. According to the former head of the Ministry of Finance, this will be a reaction of citizens to the inevitable decline in living standards, which, in turn, will be caused by a “full-fledged economic crisis” that the country is entering.

At first glance, it may seem that Kudrin is referring to the “people’s gathering” scheduled for January 15 to discuss the verdict against Alexei Navalny in the Yves Rocher case. The prosecutor's office is demanding a 10-year prison sentence for the opposition blogger.

Therefore, the first working Thursday of the new year can be quite hot.

Fortunately, there is already a precedent - on July 18, 2013, after the verdict in the Kirovles case was announced and Navalny was taken into custody in the courtroom, perhaps the largest unauthorized rallies took place in the country during the entire period of Putin’s rule.

If everything on January 15, 2015 followed a similar scenario, the protest would be directed more against the use of the law enforcement system to combat dissent than against the economic policy of the authorities. But Navalny traditionally sympathizes with representatives of the urban middle class, and it is their welfare that is hit the hardest by the double devaluation of the ruble. And the very fact that the currency crisis, wittingly or unwittingly, was provoked by state-owned companies withholding export revenues - and Vladimir Putin indirectly admitted this during his “big press conference” - adds credibility to those who claim that the main whistleblower of state oligarchs and the president's friends suffer for the truth.

Some observers have already noticed that the harsh verdict of the state prosecution in the Yves Rocher case was announced the day after Putin’s story about $3 billion “in the bottom” of one of the “national champions” and remarks about the “effective manager” Igor Sechin. And on the eve of the press conference of the head of state, the chairman of the board of directors of AFK Sistema, Vladimir Yevtushenkov , whose recent misadventures many analysts attributed to his conflict with the president of Rosneft, was released from house arrest.

On Friday, when the prospects of Alexei Navalny concerned the inhabitants of social networks no less than the exchange rate of the ruble, Putin met in the Kremlin with major businessmen, including Yevtushenkov. At the same time, as the president emphasized , “meetings of this kind are mainly dedicated to ensuring that we all feel each other’s support.”

Of course, it is too early to say that a “reset” is beginning in the relationship between government and business. But the change in the Kremlin’s rhetoric to a more liberal one is also difficult not to notice.

And of course, along with those who cautiously rejoice at these “signals,” there are many who are depressed by them. Over the past decade and a half, the forceful “tutelage” of entrepreneurs has become in itself a very good business to give up overnight. Especially in a crisis.

At the same time, mass unrest and the need to strictly suppress it is perhaps the best way to stop liberalization. At the same time, finally discrediting the “liberalizers” both in the eyes of the first person and in the eyes of their potential allies in society.

In this sense, the new attempt to “make a biography” of Navalny is a rather strong move.

Against the backdrop of a 10-year prison sentence facing the key person involved in the Yves Rocher case, the public instantly forgot that the loudest revelations of recent times were published not by him, but by Humpty Dumpty - the title of the informal “leader of the nationalists” long ago passed to Igor Strelkov, his position on Crimea partly coincides with the Kremlin’s, and his love for jokes with an anti-Semitic flavor is not a thing of the past.

Roughly speaking, if Navalny ends up in prison and the “people’s gathering” turns into riots and bloodshed, not only will Kudrin not be in the White House, but the Kremlin will not listen to him and his like-minded people. Despite the merits in the fight against the previous crisis. But the chances that the Russian economy will be treated according to Sergei Glazyev’s prescriptions, on the contrary, will increase noticeably. Although now, according to the former head of the Ministry of Finance, this long-time opponent has practically no influence on the formation of economic policy .

Therefore, it is possible that, by warning about protests that are intensifying but will not undermine the “conditions for the work of state institutions,” Kudrin is not so much “announcing” the events of January 15 as trying to prevent them. After all, perhaps the most important argument in favor of Navalny’s “closure” is his very likely transformation into a key driver of street politics against the backdrop of an extremely difficult economic situation. The former finance minister makes it clear that this is not so scary for the Kremlin. Whether Putin will listen to this advice from Kudrin and whether the country will be able to avoid repeating the tragedy of 110 years ago will become clear in January.

Why Alexey Kudrin announces protests