Analogy

The search for analogies is the favorite sport of archaeologists. I found some incomprehensible little thing-the first thing you are looking for analogues: similar finds from other archaeologists, in literature. He helped-then you can already solve something. Maybe one of the analogues has a date, an explanation or something will come out of the finding of finds.

The very soulful theorist of archeology Zhang Guangi from Yale University in 1967 proclaimed: “As for the analogy, the whole archeology is an analogy” [1] . In fact, because the entire archaeological interpretation is based on a comparison with ethnographic reality and on a hidden analogy with elements of modern life.

In general, the conclusion by analogy is not evidence. This is well known. However, the authoritative mathematician Poisa has a different opinion: “It would be absurd from the credibility of such guesses to deduce their truth, but it would also be (and even more) it is absurd to neglect these plausible assumptions. The conclusion by analogy is the most common type of reasoning, possibly the most important ” [2] .

And in another place, he noted that “all our thinking, our daily speech and trivial conclusions, the language of artistic works and higher scientific achievements are imbued with an analogy. The degree of analogy can be different. People often use foggy, ambiguous, incomplete or not completely identified analogies, but the analogy can reach the level of mathematical accuracy ” [3] .

Of course, in the analogy, the degree of completeness of the comparison and the materiality of those signs that are based on rapprochement are very important in order to find the conclusion that other signs should be similar.

For example, according to the steppes of the Volga region, Ukraine and Moldova, they were widespread in the 4th millennium BC. e. Stylized stone images of the head of the animal - either a horse or dog. According to the general configuration, they very much look like stone combat axes-young people of later time. What is not an analogy? By this analogy, many archaeologists interpreted them as zoomorphic scepter - signs of power. But for combat axes and scepter, they do not have a very significant detail - there is no cradle, holes for nozzle on the hilt. That is, they were operated by clamping in their hand, for this they always have a rough part, and the front is polished. Another judgment by analogy is the definition of an animal depicted as a horse or dog. But he has an invariably shown one horn on his forehead. This is a unicorn, an animal mythical. In my interpretation of these objects, I result from rituals associated with the cult of a unicorn.

But the archaeological example of a successful analogy. In the settlement on the territory of the Huns (Hunsnu) in Siberia a half of the pot was found, cut vertically in half. This would not be a shift, but it was cut to firing! So it is burned as half. It was possible to find an exact analogy - in ancient culture. And there it also had explanations: such halves were used as knee pads for spinning. Well, the Huns also had spinning. So the analogy, although far in distance, is working.

I will give an example of analogy from ancient history and philology. The Homeric heroic epic describes a ten-year siege, storm and death of Troy-Ilion in the XIII century BC. e. But neither in archaeological excavations, nor in written sources there are no traces of this incident. Ilion died from the invasion, but much later from other aggressors, not Achaeans. There is not a single Achaean arrow tip. According to historical sources, it is known that the Aheis Greeks captured a significant part of the west coast of Asia Minor, but this captured part of Troda is not included. Just this corner, they failed to capture to their own death.

All this is very strange. But a distant analogy explains everything. Take the Serbian heroic epic: he tells how the brave Serbian yunaki stormed Istanbul, although we know from history that there was never such a storm, but in reality there was something opposite - the complete defeat of Yunakov on the Kosovo field. In the Russian heroic epic - epics - Russian heroes invariably defeat the Tatars. And the Tatar yoke is not mentioned in a word. This is the specifics of the heroic epic. He always compensates for the true defeats with imaginary victories.

Now we take the most modern episode of history - the result of the year: our conflict with Ukraine. For his best understanding, analogies are often attracted, of course, with the Georgian campaign of 2008. Also, one of our former Union republics, also we are talking about contested territories, almost no one recognized either. But the Russian-Georgian war lasted several days, and with all the intransigence of the Georgian position, Georgia suffered more than Russia: Saakashvili lost the elections and fled from the country, the reforms fell off.

It seems to me that an analogy that is little remembered, analyzing the incident with Ukraine, is more suitable - the Afghan adventure of the Brezhnev leadership. In scale and related circumstances, this analogy is much closer.

In both cases, the operation was carried out militaryly brilliantly. In both cases, the attack was justified as preventive (so that the Americans would not invade). Then everything was carried out under the slogan of international assistance, now - under the motto of the reunification of the Russian world. In both cases, in a country undergoing a preventive attack, there was a friendly government to us. In both cases, there were some kinds of discords with him. And there and there there was a calculation to support part of the local population. A limited contingent of the Soviet troops was introduced there, here - “polite little men”, volunteers and vacationers. Both here and here the first successes were significant: the presidential palace and the capital were captured there, here part of the territory was annexed, some were taken out of the control of the local government.

In both cases, we strongly denied our participation (although we later recognized), secretly buried our dead. In both incidents, the reaction of the world community was much stronger than expected. In the case of Afghanistan, the international discharge of tension was disrupted, the Olympiad is a cuddle, a race of arms began, which ended in a known one. In this case, the system of international treaties is disrupted, the magnificent Olympiad is forgotten, the arms race cannot begin, because the financial race has begun. That war lasted ten years and ended with a ceremonial withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan under the leadership of General Gromov. With expanded banners. Almost simultaneously with the fall of the Berlin wall with which famous events began.

The consequences of the Afghan adventure are clear: not far from our borders on the site of a prosperous, although the medieval state, the Al-Qaeda Center was created, the Taliban formed, a powerful focus of drug addictions aimed at our country.

What will arise in the place of Ukraine friendly is difficult to predict.

The analogy, of course, is incomplete. Now Russia is within the boundaries of pre -Petrine Rus' and revives some pre -Petrine scrapers. There is no Berlin wall, and there is no ring of union republics, and there is no second ring of the Warsaw bloc. And there is no industry that the USSR possessed. And Lafa about the money ended. Therefore, probably, we will lay down faster than ten years.

But this is not a prophecy. This is just an analogy.

1. K.S. Chang. RetHinking Archaeology. New York, Random House, 1967. P. 109.

2. D. Poisa. Mathematics and believable reasoning. M.: Foreign Literature, 1957. S. 49.

3. In the same place. S. 45.