Where will leasing lead?

The government is politically ready to support airlines, but for this you need to understand the extent of their debt to creditors

The government is politically ready to support airlines, but for this you need to understand the extent of their debt to creditors

According to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, the government is developing measures to support airlines, such large players as UTair and Trasaero may need help. Moreover, if the Siberian airline has a powerful shareholder (the structures of Surgutneftegaz), then Transaero, apparently, will not be able to cope without the help of the state.

True, the mechanism under discussion, namely, the provision of state guarantees, can hardly be effective in the current conditions. State guarantees make it easier and cheaper to attract credit financing, but the key rate of the Bank of Russia, as you know, is now 17%, which means that in principle there can be no cheap money on the market. In addition, Novaya, Transaero and one of its main creditors, VEB Leasing, have learned that huge financial injections may be required to avoid entering bankruptcy proceedings.

According to the documents that the editors have at their disposal, in October between the management of Transaero and VEB-Leasing, as a result of which a number of decisions were made to manage the airline's debt to the creditor, but almost none of them was implemented. There are several solutions left, and all of them are, as they say, complex. VEB-leasing may require the decommissioning and sale of 22 aircraft, the purchase of which by the airline was financed under leasing schemes. But in this case, VEB-Leasing will be forced to record serious losses in excess of $100 million. Another option is to restructure the debt, including converting it into rubles, but then VEB-leasing should receive long-term financing in the amount equivalent to $895 million, which significantly exceeds the amount already allocated by the government for additional capitalization of VEB itself. Finally, Transaero can gradually pay off its debt, including through the sale of aircraft without a public declaration of default.