At the beginning of 2014, Kommersant FM observers made a forecast for the year. Now they are holding themselves accountable for their predictions. The head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Fyodor Lukyanov, discussed how the cultural and geographical borders of Russia will change.

January 6, 2014: “The construction of the Eurasian Union is the main event of 2014 for Russia. The country is self-determining. And the point is not what many are talking about - not in the realization of the desire for expansion, not in the desire at any cost to prevent the movement of the former union republics to west or east, and not even in the desire to consolidate its position as the center of a multipolar world order, Russia defines its borders - not administrative, but cultural and psychological, the area that it will continue to consider “its own”, special, not related to a full-fledged foreign country. ".

When a year ago I assumed that the main topic for Russia would be the definition of “its” habitat, I could not even imagine how literally this forecast would come true. In 2014, Russia expanded its territory—Crimea—and became involved in a confrontation in Novorossiya, where the main issue is essentially the issue of identity. Who are we, and where does our natural space end?

Having chosen the theme of the “Russian world” as the main explanation for the annexation of Crimea, President Putin, with a wave of his hand, sharply expanded this space, making its borders ephemeral and fluid. The reaction was not long in coming. Everyone else felt threatened not even by “cutting off” a piece of territory from an internationally recognized state, but precisely by this uncertainty.

The expansion of a major player always causes concern for other participants in the game, and even more so when it obviously does not indicate its limits. The process of self-determination will continue, but now it depends more than before on others - the degree of their opposition and resistance. Well, it depends on what sacrifices Russia is ready to make for the sake of expanding “its” world.

"The process of self-determination will continue"