In the economy

Instead of the results

December 31, 2014 Maxim Blan

The economic results of the year this time does not make much sense. It is enough to go outside, raise your eyes and look at the binding of the dollar and the euro obsessively looming on every corner, run into the store, open a fresh newspaper to make sure: a crisis, from which, unlike previous shocks, no exit is visible in full swing.

The economic forecast in the current circumstances is also not very grateful. Guess how much oil will cost, and how much the dollar, how many percentage points the Russian GDP will fall and whether the last renewal of the power of those who prefer - for devaluation and import substitution will also become reality - it is also pointless. Since a script is visible on the horizon, during the implementation of which all of the above will become absolutely unimportant and secondary. Therefore, this year, contrary to tradition, instead of the economic results of the year, the forecast, and by no means economic.

At the beginning of the year, Putin, who has already ripened to “pass” the notorious Novorossia in exchange for at least a partial cancellation of sanctions, will make a new attempt. But no one will talk to him. Just in the spring, well -equipped Ukrainian troops will put things in order in the rebellious territories, and they will do it quite quickly. The Putin team, exempted from the honorary, but not too pleasant obligation to feed the separatists, will joke for order, but there will be nothing to do. But this will not end. Immediately after this, almost simultaneously, the processes of returning the military means of Crimea to Ukraine, Transnistria of Moldova, North Ossetia and Abkhazia - Georgia will begin. And at the same time, which is less likely, but not impossible - Sakhalin and smoked Japan. Any attempt by Putin to prevent these processes will come across a silent tightening of sanctions from the West.

By the end of the summer, Putin will be resigned, a state of emergency will be introduced in the country, and a ban on walking foreign currency will be announced. The process of nationalization of banks and industrial enterprises will begin. Free entry and departure from the country will be closed. In large cities in the fall, the card distribution system of food will begin to be introduced. A number of Russian regions will want to get out of Russia, moreover, someone (for example, in the Kaliningrad region) will succeed. In the rest of the territory, a pretty part of the population with understanding will relate to the call to rally the ranks in the face of an external enemy and destroy the internal one. After one or two demonstration processes over the “fifth column” and “foreign agents”, the indignant public in the field will begin to eradicate the anti-Russian element.

What is the likelihood that the events in the coming 2015 will develop this way? So far, it is below 50%, but a year ago it was calculated by tenth shares of a percentage, and now - dozens of percent. And this is too much to just ignore such a script. And then you have to be ready for him. At least morally.

Photo by ITAR-TASS/ Vladimir Smirnov