Subordination

The Paris tragedy - a terrorist attack, taught by military Islamists in the editorial office of Charlie Hebdo - will have far -reaching consequences, and not only for France.

The magazine has long causes the anger of Muslims (and not only) with its provocative caricatures and disrespectful covers. So the next number of the weekly came out with the cartoon image of Michel Welbek. The writer is depicted in the image of a magician predicting that in 2022 France will begin to live according to Sharia law. We are talking about the next book of a scandalous author called "Subordination". The novel describes this situation: the second round of the presidential election is the leader of the extreme right -wing national front Marine Le Pen and a French citizen of Arabic origin Muhammad bin Abbas. In an effort to prevent the militant nationalism, both the right and left, reluctantly vote for Arab. Bin Abbas, having come to power, conducts an Islamization of the country, and imposes on her Sharia in his most radical, Wahhabitic, in fact, interpretation. France, and then other European countries begin to turn into a kind of Saudi Arabia.

This satirical anti -utopia is, as expected according to the laws of the genre, artistic exaggeration. It is unlikely that the Islamist can choose the head of the French state. It is easier to imagine the opposite: the voters frightened by terror will massively go to vote for the national front. You can also expect a sharp increase in the popularity of right -wing countries in other countries of the European Union. I won’t be surprised if the regular marches of the German anti -Islamic movement PEGIDA are not to collect not thousands, but dozens, or even hundreds of thousands of participants. In such a situation, governments will have to listen to the vote in one way or another.

No need to go to the soothsayer and read Welbek to predict the thickening of the atmosphere of intolerance, an increase in the number of attacks on the mosque, and cases of Muslim’s touch. And those in response will become embittered even more, considering themselves unfairly offended. It is possible that this will lead to a new tributary of volunteers both into the ranks of the Islamic State, and its classical predecessor, Al-Qaeda. France, by the way, is in the first place in Europe in the number of citizens who went to fight under a black banner in Syria and Iraq. The two hundred of them, according to some estimates, have already returned. Some are disappointed, others - frightened. And the third - extremely radicalized, hardened in battles, ready for a partisan war against the hated Western society.

What is such a society that sacrificed human rights, freedom of speech, the dignity of an individual, better, say, Putin's Russia?

Another easily predictable consequence is the spread of unspoken censorship and self -censorship in the Western media: few people want to follow the path of Charlie Hebdo. Well, in fact, imagine yourself for a moment the editor -in -chief: do you want to risk your life not only your, but the entire team of employees - fathers and mothers of families? And the third: the already further outlined trend in the provision of more and more power to the special services will go - to the applause of the frightened public. What is the secret of private life, correspondence, conversations, what, in the end, even a presumption of innocence, when it comes to salvation from merciless professional killers who shoot civilians from machine guns and grenade launchers? A couple of spectacular terrorist attacks, and the public, perhaps, will be morally ready to give the knights a cloak and dagger card blanche for uncontrolled activities.

What is such a society that sacrificed human rights, freedom of speech, the dignity of an individual, better, say, Putin's Russia? And his difference from the morals of the "Islamic state" will become much less contrasting. From whom and why defend yourself? Terrorists in this case will be winners.

This is of course the worst, worst scenario of events. But, unlike Welbek, not so fantastic. In order for it to not be embodied, the Western governments will need a tremendous exposure and at the same time determination, the willingness to resist both a terrorist threat and a populist reaction to it. On the one hand, we are needed, decisive uniform actions by the West against the "Islamic state" and its supporters. It is time to understand that this is the mortal enemy of Western civilization, and it itself will not disappear. At the same time, it is strictly impossible to panic and follow the leaders and xenophobes.

Popying the famous formula of Reynold Nibur: God forbid our authorities to confront evil, changing what can be changed, composure to accept what cannot be changed (without refusing democratic rights and freedoms), and wisdom - always distinguish one from the other. Are modern European governments capable of this, and most importantly, will they receive the support of the voter in this? Don't know. But if not, then difficult times await us all ahead of us.

Andrey Ostalsky - London political commentator, orientalist

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office