Oil has been falling for the seventh week in a row and has lost more than half its value since the summer. On January 9, a barrel of Brent cost about $50. Oil has not been so cheap since the end of 2008. Over the past week, the price has fallen by 11%, traders say - for no apparent reason. In the US, the number of operating drilling rigs has continued to decline for the fifth week, but there are still more of them than a year earlier. In addition, it takes time for the reduction in exploration to be reflected in a decrease in production volumes.

There is still plenty of oil in the world. Stockpiles in American oil storage facilities recently broke another record. Investors are in an uncertain mood: according to the CFTC, last week there were an equal number of new bets on further increases and decreases in oil prices. We can prepare for the worst: Commerzbank expects Brent to cost $45 in Q1, and BNP Paribas has lowered its annual forecast to $60.

You can now watch the depreciating ruble and rising prices eat away at the well-being of Russians virtually online. While statisticians were resting, having estimated the growth of consumer prices in 2014 at 11.4% (food prices increased by 15.4%), we had to be content with empirical data. RIA Novosti reports that in Vladivostok an 800-gram pack of buckwheat has increased in price from 70 to 84 rubles compared to the end of December (bulk buckwheat - from 50 to 65 rubles per 1 kg). Bread has also increased in price by 10-15%, meat - by about 10%. Food prices are rising faster in middle-class stores, but economy-class goods are also catching up (especially cheese, sunflower oil, salt, sugar, eggs). Only alcohol will become cheaper - at Putin's insistence, Rosalkogolregulirovanie is lowering the minimum price of vodka by 16% to 185 rubles per 0.5 liters from February 1 (of which about 54% is excise tax frozen for two years).

The same thing is happening on investment markets: five-year insurance against Russian default on government debt has risen in price to as much as 6%. Meanwhile, a default by the country is unlikely due to the almost complete absence of government debt. Russia's sovereign rating is on the verge of the "junk" category, which promises a further outflow of funds from the stock and bond markets. Shares are already very cheap (the P/E ratio is about 2.8), but it is not the time to buy: for the market to go up, the price of oil needs to rise and/or geopolitics needs to improve, Morgan Stanley analysts write. The Central Bank has few resources to support the ruble: in 2014, international reserves fell by almost 24% - to $388.5 billion.

The main thing now is that Russian politicians do not learn regulation from Venezuela. For this country, oil is about 96% of foreign exchange earnings. Inflation in the country is about 64%, production is falling, at the end of October, limits were introduced on the sale of goods per person (milk - 1 liter). Venezuela is hoping for help from China (it seems to have promised $20 billion in investments), Russia and Iran. Residents stand in hours-long lines for milk, soap and toilet paper at prices regulated by the government. Store shelves are empty, the president's popularity is at a minimum, Minister Ernesto Villegas, speaking on TV, says that everything is set up by enemies of the Venezuelan government, who "infiltrated the people to organize violent actions against the government" (quoted by WSJ). I hope that the defensive moods of politicians and the manner of regulating prices do not spill over to Russia, which is friendly to Venezuela.

From the editors: Getting poorer online