Standard & Poor's may announce a downgrade of Russia's sovereign rating this evening after the close of trading on the Moscow Exchange, analysts and economists at Sberbank Investment Research, Uralsib Capital and FG BCS believe

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At the end of December 2014, S&P sent Russia's sovereign credit rating for review with a “negative” outlook. The agency justified its decision by the sharp decrease in the flexibility of Russia's monetary policy and the impact of the weakening of the country's economy on its financial system. Currently, long-term and short-term sovereign ratings in foreign currency are at the level of BBB-/A-3, in national currency BBB/A-2. The BB+ level, to which S&P may downgrade Russia's sovereign rating, is perceived by investors as “junk.”

The agency said the decision would be made public in mid-January, without giving an exact date or time.

S&P's decision on Russia's sovereign rating may appear this evening after the markets close, Uralsib Capital analysts Irina Lebedeva and Olga Sterina write in their review today. They point out that the agency usually issues such messages on Friday after trading closes. The chief economist of the BCS FG, Vladimir Tikhomirov, spoke about this earlier to RBC. According to him, rating agencies publish rating downgrade messages after trading closes on Friday so as not to create reasons for increased volatility.

Sberbank Investment Research analysts Tom Levinson, Vladimir Pantyushin and Iskander Abdullaev also write in their review that S&P may decide to lower the sovereign rating today. “If this happens, the ruble will come under pressure during the American trading session. At the same time, traditional hedging of positions ahead of the weekend will have an additional negative impact,” they write, noting that the dollar may rise in price to 66–67 rubles .

If the rating is lowered to a speculative level, the main blow will be on the debt market, although sales in individual names, for example, companies in the financial sector, cannot be ruled out on the stock market, believes Vladimir Bragin, director for analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics at Alfa Capital Management Company. . In his opinion, the likelihood of the rating being downgraded to a speculative level is extremely high.

Analysts at Uralsib Capital point out that in many ways the possible downgrade of Russia’s sovereign rating to a level below investment grade has already been taken into account in current quotes, “however, a sharp reaction in the event of a downgrade cannot be ruled out.”

The S&P agency itself announced on Friday, January 16, that it plans to review Russia’s sovereign ratings by the end of January 2015. “In December, we announced that we planned to remove sovereign ratings from the CreditWatch list (ratings for review) by mid-January 2015. Currently, we plan to do this by the end of January,” the message states.

Economists are preparing for a downgrade in Russia's rating by the end of the day