Donbass: The resumption of battles

What we know and what we do not know about the frequent shelling in the southeast of Ukraine

In the south-east of Ukraine, dozens of civilians died at the hands of the military, the battles between the army of Ukraine and the separatists were tightened. Considering that the parties are also waging an information war, to understand what is actually happening at the place of hostilities, it is almost impossible. Medusa collected information about the latest events in the southeast, dividing it into two parts: what we know about them and what we do not know.

What do we know?

The death of civilians. Over the past few days, dozens of civilians have died near Donetsk. On January 13, near the city of Volnovakha, a regular bus fell under fire, 12 people died, 18 were injured. On the morning of January 22, a stop in the Donetsk microdistrict Bosse fell under the shelling, according to various sources, from 9 to 15 people were killed. These are only the most egregious cases - reports of the death of civilians come (both on the one hand and on the other) almost every day.

The resumption of fierce battles for the Donetsk airport. In December 2014, the parties agreedon the ceasefire in the Donetsk Airport area, but after the New Year holidays the battles resumed. On January 13, the dispatch tower was finally destroyed. Over the next few days, the entire airport has turned into a pile of ruin: if you could say that the separatists control the old airport terminal, and the Ukrainian troops are new, now both of them are destroyed. Nevertheless, fights in the airport area are underway, people can be under the ruins, but there is no way to save them yet because of the ongoing fire.

Artillery is firing along the entire line of confrontation. The artillery attacks from the Ukrainian army were reported to Debaltseve (an important railway junction in the Donetsk region, 57 kilometers straight from Donetsk) and in Avdeevka (a city six kilometers from Donetsk); Avdeevka was left without light, water and warmth and, perhaps, is no longer controlled by the Ukrainian army. The OSCE mission reported that she fell under the cross shell in Pavlopol (80 kilometers from Donetsk). On the part of the DPR there are news about the shelling of their positions by Ukrainian troops from Mariupol to Gorlovka (between these settlements more than 150 kilometers).

The Ukrainian military was captured. The separatists on January 22 drove a group of people (more than ten people) according to Donetsk: these people in all sources sympathizing with the DPR and LPR are called prisoners captured at Donetsk Airport. On January 20, the head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, held a press conference, to which he brought the "detained Ukrainian military." The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that 16 people were captured at the airport, who received a contusion in battles.

What do we not know?

Why did military operations resumed in early January? After a truce concluded in early December, it seemed that the conflict could gradually subside and go to the phase of peaceful negotiations. This did not happen: the actual military operations in the end were not conducted for less than a month. What exactly happened and what is it connected with is unknown. On January 15, negotiations were supposed to be held in Astana, but they did not take place. The cancellation (according to other sources, transfer) of negotiations is a consequence , and not the reason for the resumption of active hostilities.

Who fired at civilians in the Bosse microdistrict and near Volnovakha? The parties to the conflict accuse each other of shelling. For example, we give the arguments of the parties in the incident with the shelling of a stop in the Bosse microdistrict: the Prosecutor's Office of the Donetsk region accused the separatists of this, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk-Russia, the representative of the DPR and the Investigative Committee of Russia (in a more veiled form)-Ukrainian saboteurs.

What is the role of Russia in what happened? President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, speaking on January 21 in Davos, said that there are nine thousand Russian military and up to 500 tanks in the country. On January 22, Novorossia TV published a video of Ukrainians who are captured by representatives of the DPR, which shows an SUV with Russian numbers. In Russia, they insist that if one of the Russians is fighting on the side of the DPR and the LPR, then these are exclusively volunteers. Obsers from the OSCE from the movement of equipment from Russia to Ukraine did not record , but we are talking only about two border points. The only thing that can be said for sure: the Russian Investigative Committee is actively interfering in the situation in Ukraine. So, he opened his own criminal case on the fact of shelling the situation in the boss.

What will happen next? According to indirect data (the expansion of the list of cities that are not controlled by the local army; Zakharchenko’s statements that he intends to move the front line so that the Ukrainian army stops the shelling of Donetsk), it can be assumed that the Ukrainian army is retreating. There is no direct evidence of this.