Putin's plan - Siluanova

The Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, during the past Gaidar Forum, published a revolutionary project, the essence of which is to make ends meet even under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, simply considering it as one of the inevitable external factors, along with the low cost of oil and Western sanctions.

Unlike those who fell into the administrative stupor of colleagues in the economic bloc, the head of the financial department is ready to work in the situation that is. The two-year plan set forth by Siluanov proceeds from two realistic prerequisites in his own way, partly expressed openly, but even more-silently implied.

First: the oil price will be low, but still not less than $ 50, and in the future it will grow, but it will never rise to the previous heights.

The second: Putin will not put up with the West (which means that sanctions are forever, and there will be no more foreign money), will not leave his friends in the trouble (which will therefore have to be thrown out of state reserves) and will refuse (at least, in the near future) to cut military expenses with their obvious inability.

The Siluanian program based on these attitudes would be fairly called the Putin -Siluanov Plan, due to the indelible imprint, which the president’s aspirations were imposed on the impulses of the Minister of Finance.

The plan is pleasing with clarity.

In 2015, all budget expenses except the military are cut by 10%. If this is not enough, they are cut again. The indexing of salaries and pensions is not canceled, but in no case should be chased for inflation. The needs of the elected lobbyists are covered from the National Welfare Fund, and a lack of money in the budget - from the reserve fund, but in order to maintain it a large part. In general, the people will have to shake their wallet thoroughly.

In 2016, he will have to shake him again, and perhaps even more thoroughly. Siluanova is depressing that much more than half of federal budget expenses go to security forces and transfers to the Pension Fund.

Another “pension reform” (the minister ventured to use this particular expression) will have to correct this bias. And other social expenses will also be cut. Moreover, Siluanov, judging by his hints, does not lose hope at least by 2016 to persuade Putin to squeeze even power expenses anymore.

The product of these desperate events should be a balanced economy-a very impoverished, but accustomed somehow to exist without massive petrodollar injections and western loans.

By the way, some of the money seized from pensioners, non -state business and, possibly, even from the military, silwoans recommends redirecting to medicine and education. But it is clear that this progressive advice will be perceived by the mental co -author only as an optional taste supplement to the main dish.

After all, to bring budget ends with ends does not mean that everyone will live in the means. Even in low -fat tenths, everyone will live on the means except those to whom Putin will allow to live according to the needs. He has no other plan for us.

Photo: Sergey Karpukhin/Reuters